Arab Americans In Key States Poll: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia
While some national polls show President Joe Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza is impacting voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, this is most clearly the case with Arab American voters. In 2020, Biden bested former President Donald Trump by 59%-35%. In this poll, Biden is now losing to Trump by 32%-18%.
Building on our October 2023 nationwide poll of Arab Americans, we commissioned a poll of 900 Arab American voters in four key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These states were chosen because each of them has a sizable Arab American voter base and because results in their presidential contests are often close. Here’s what we found:
I. The Presidential Vote
-As in our October 2023 poll, President Biden continues to receive less than 20% of the Arab American vote—which stands in sharp contrast to the nearly 60% of the Arab American vote he received in 2020. Donald Trump continues to receive the votes of about one-third of Arab Americans—the same as he did in 2020.
- While “not sure” and third-party candidates received less than 10% support in 2020, that goes up to 50% this year. The main reason is 40% of Arab Americans say they are “not enthusiastic at all” about casting a vote in November, while another 21% are “not really enthusiastic”—this increases the number of those who aren’t sure for whom they’ll vote for (or if they’ll vote at all) in November
-Women are most likely (35%) to be unsure of who they will vote for in 2024, followed by younger Arab Americans (18-34) at 32%. At the moment, only 8% of younger Arab Americans support Biden in the presidential race.
-The lack of enthusiasm is most evident among Democrats, 50% of whom aren’t “enthusiastic at all.” That’s only the case for 11% of Republicans.
II. Approval Ratings for Biden and Trump
-79% of Arab Americans have an unfavorable view of President Biden, while 56% have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Biden’s negative ratings are largely driven by the 56% of Democrats who view him unfavorably—with almost all Republicans saying they have an unfavorable view of Biden. On the other hand, Trump’s numbers are higher because he retains the near total support of those who identify as Republicans (while, of course, receiving almost no support among Arab Americans who are Democrats).
III. The Role of the Gaza War
-The simple reason why Biden’s numbers and ratings are so low is, in a word, Gaza. When given 10 issues and asked to rate which of the three are most important to them, 60% say it is the war in Gaza. In response to another question, 57% also say that Gaza will be “very important” in determining their vote in November.
-After 8 months of Israel’s relentless assault on Palestinians in Gaza, 88% of Arab Americans say they have a negative view of the way Biden has handled the war, with overwhelming majorities across all party identification: Republicans (87%), Independents (86%), and even Democrats (87%).
-Gaza’s role is so important that, as our poll shows, if the President, even at this late date, were to dramatically change policy on Israel/Gaza, he could win back much of the support he has lost. In two separate questions, when asked if the president were to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid into Gaza or if he were to suspend diplomatic support and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw forces from Gaza, 60% of Arab Americans say they would be more likely to vote for him in November. This includes 80% and 79% of Arab American Democrats respectively. It also includes 82% of those who currently say they are unsure about voting in November. This could bring the Biden/Trump match-up numbers to a point where they are more favorable for Biden than they were in 2020, with Biden at 60% and Trump at 22%—compared with the 59%-35% in 2020
IV. Biden’s Policies Put the Democratic Brand at Risk
-While the number of Arab Americans who identify as Democrats have rebounded since the October 2023 poll giving a slight edge over those who identify as Republicans (32-30), it is nowhere near the two-to-one margins that existed from 2008 to 2016.
-The most significant losses occurred among the two groups who have the most tenuous attachment to a political party identity—young voters and immigrants. With nearly one quarter of Arab Americans being immigrants and more than four in ten being under 35, they are classic swing voters. In response to almost every question in this survey, these two groups are the most likely to reject the President’s policy toward Israel/Gaza and to opt not to vote for Biden unless he changes policy direction on this critical issue.
V. How This Translates to Real Votes
When comparing this poll’s expected results in November 2024 with the Arab American vote in 2020, we see a significant potential loss for President Biden of 177,000 votes in these four key states—with 91,000 of this possible loss occurring in Michigan alone.