Arab Americans Special Poll: Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Outbreak of Violence in Palestine/Israel

In response to the most recent outbreak of violence in Palestine/Israel, the Arab American Institute commissioned a special nationwide poll of Arab American voters that was conducted by John Zogby Strategies. What follows are the key summary points:

Support for President Biden in the upcoming election has plummeted among Arab Americans voters,dropping from 59% to 17%, a 42% decrease from 2020. Biden’s approval rating has also dropped precipitously from 74% in 2020 to 29% in 2023, reflecting trends across the American public as a whole.i  Arab Americans account for hundreds of thousands of voters in several key election states, like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where the 2024 election battleground will play out.

Two-thirds of Arab Americans have a negative view of President Biden’s response to the current violence in Palestine and Israel. Since April 2023, before the outbreak of violence in the region, his approval rating has dropped 18% among Arab Americans. A strong majority of Arab Americans believe the U.S. should call for a ceasefire on the current violence, mirroring recent polls of the American public overall.ii

The overall impact of the negative views toward the President and his policies not only shows up in a substantial drop in expected voter support in 2024, it also has a dramatic impact on party preference.  This poll marks the first time in our 26 years of polling Arab American voters in which a majority did not claim to prefer the Democratic Party.

In 2008 and 2016, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by two to one. In this poll, 32% of Arab Americans identified as Republican as opposed to just 23% who identified as Democrats. Independents continued a steady growth in party identification and overtook Democrats for the first time in October 2023.

There is deep concern that outbreak of violence will have negative repercussions on the community’s safety. Eight in ten Arab Americans are concerned that the current violence will provoke anti-Arab bigotry and two-thirds are concerned it will provoke antisemitism.

 There are high levels of concern with publicly expressing views in support of Palestinian rights and fear for personal safety or acts of discrimination. Fifty-nine percent of Arab Americans report experiencing discrimination, an increase of 6% since April of this year. Seventy percent of Arab American Muslims and 74% of Arab Americans ages 18-34 report facing discrimination. Half of all Arab Americans felt concerned about facing discrimination at school, work, and in their local community due to the recent violence in Palestine and Israel, with two-thirds expressing concern about show support for Palestinians.

Finally, it is important to note that both the high levels of support for Palestinian rights and high negatives for the president’s policies are views shared by every demographic subgroup covered in the poll - age, gender, education level, religion, and immigrant/native born.

i Megan Brenan, Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%, Gallup (Oct. 26, 2023) https://news.gallup.com/poll/513305/democrats-ratings-biden-slip-overall-approval.aspx.

ii Jason Lange and Matt Spetalnick, Exclusive: Americans Want US to Help get Gaza Civilians out of Harm's Way-Reuters/Ipsos Poll, Reuters (Oct. 16, 2023, 6:42AM) https://www.reuters.com/world/americans-want-us-help-get-gaza-civilians-out-harms-way-reutersipsos-2023-10-16/; Shibley Telhami, Most Americans, Including Half of Young Democrats, Disapprove of Biden’s Handling of Recent Gaza Crisis, Bookings Inst. (July 29, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/articles/most-americans-including-half-of-young-democrats-disapprove-of-bidens-handling-of-recent-gaza-crisis/ .