Posted by on June 19, 2012 in Blog
The President’s performance as of late, according to analysis by AAI Board Member and Pollster John Zogby, has been relatively dismal overall. However, despite the unimpressive performance, Zogby says the President is “pretty much where he needs to be” election-wise. Zogby writes a weekly report card for the Washington Times in which he grades the president’s performance with key voting constituencies. In his analysis, Zogby cites polling data and popular responses to the week’s top political issues to back up the grades he issues the President. Going back through the report card to mid-May, the President rarely receives better than a C. One outlier comes through the week of May 7-13 where Zogby gave Obama an A for coming out in support of gay marriage, a move he said appealed to key progressive supporters without ultimately alienating more conservative ones. The President has, however received relatively low marks overall. One week, for example, the President received an F for a gaffe in which he said “the private sector is doing fine.” That same week, the administration was accused of leaking sensitive national security information involving Iran for political gain. Both of those issues coupled amount to a failing grade for the week in Zogby’s opinion.
Last week’s report is particularly noteworthy as it lays out the important constituencies for both the President and presumptive challenger Mitt Romney. As he did in a previous article, Zogby stressed the importance of Obama winning over young voters, specifically what he calls the “college-educated not going anywhere” or CENGA voters. Zogby says that young voters are showing a significant lack of enthusiasm for Obama compared to four years ago. Today he says the President retains 46 percent of their support as opposed to 66 percent support in 2008. Overall, at this point, Zogby has not made a prediction of who will win the race but says the contest is “pretty much the President’s to lose.” Romney, he says, “will have a very difficult time broadening the [Republican] base.”
Below are a number of Zogby’s reports going back to mid-May. We suggest you take a look at his analysis. They serve as a key resource in understanding the demographic breakdown affecting this highly contentious presidential contest. We will feature his reports as they continue to be published.