Posted by on March 05, 2012 in Blog
By George Doumar
George Doumar is a lawyer in Virginia and the District of Columbia, and is the Founder and Principal of Doumar Law Group
With nearly 600 delegates at stake from 11 states on March 6, Mitt Romney looks effectively poised to lock up the Republican nomination with a solid performance on Super Tuesday.
Newt Gingrich looks to prevail in his home state of Georgia, which, with 76, has the most delegates at stake of any state on Tuesday. But like General Hood confined to Atlanta in 1864, Newt’s base seems to have shrunk from other southern and rural areas that might otherwise be hospitable, like Oklahoma and Tennessee, to the borders of his home state.
Rick Santorum is betting his campaign on Ohio, and needs a win there to keep the money and attention flowing. Some of Santorum’s comments, however, such as the ones on contraception, have limited his ability to branch out beyond his core base of support. Gee, maybe Santorum did contribute to his 18-point blowout loss in Pennsylvania in 2006. Outside of Ohio, Santorum will likely split some votes with Gingrich in Tennessee and Oklahoma, making Romney wins in those two states more likely.
Ron Paul may do well in some caucus states like Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska, racking up some second place finishes, and in doing so he will mostly knock Santorum or Gingrich down the ladder.
Romney has Massachusetts and Vermont safely in his corner, and is guaranteed a Virginia win with only him and Ron Paul on the ballot. Romney is the only candidate with any organization in places like Washington, and there are enough suburban voters in Tennessee for him to do well there. If Romney wins Ohio and even comes close in Georgia, he will suck the oxygen out of the campaigns of his two main rivals. Ron Paul may continue to run a caucus-focused, libertarian die-hard campaign designed to influence the platform for a while, but he is no threat to Romney.
All the candidates are flawed, but Romney appears to be the least flawed. In November, provided Romney obtains the nomination, he will face another flawed candidate, a community organizer and law professor with no business experience, who happened to get elected President in 2008. With small and medium-sized business still closing down at a frightening pace, and new business formation at historic lows, Romney will need to highlight the threats to business. U.S. workforce participation paradoxically lies among the lowest in the industrialized world. An Obama win will herald in an era of higher taxes, with a 2% self-employment tax increase kicking in on January 1 for starters, bringing more pressures on struggling businesses trying to pay the rent and meet payroll. The country can look forward to a Romney v. Obama race focused, as is so often the case with Presidential races, on economic issues. But first, there’s Tuesday.