Posted on June 17, 2013 in Reports

From April 4 to May 12, 2013, we conducted an extensive nationwide poll of 5,029 Egyptian adults. We surveyed citizens in every area of the country from its southernmost part up into the Sinai.

With more than two years having passed since the downfall of the Mubarak government and almost one year into the presidency of Mohamed Morsi, we sought to learn how Egyptians assess their current situation, and the level of confidence they have in the current government and the country’s main political groupings and major institutions.

What emerged is a portrait of a deeply divided public with a minority strongly supporting a government that has virtually no support among Egyptians not affiliated with the President’s party. A review of the data reveals that despite the existence of many political parties, there are actually three distinct groupings defining the attitudinal map of the country.

  1. The Islamic Tendency (IT) which includes supporters of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP - Muslim Brotherhood) and the Nour Party
  2. The Organized Oppositionists (OO) which includes the supporters of the National Salvation Front (NSF) and the April 6th Movement (A6M)
  3. The Silent Disaffected Plurality (SDP)

Before discussing the different attitudes of each of these tendencies, it is important to note that we did not ask respondents whether they were members of any group. Because, with the exception of the Brotherhood, the other parties or groupings are relatively new and/or are loosely structured, we simply asked respondents to indicate the “level of confidence” they have in each of the groups. A review of the responses reveals a stark contrast in the attitudes and the confidence levels of those who say they have confidence in the FJP or the Nour Party and those who indicate confidence in either the NSF or A6M.

On closer examination we discovered that the near identical responses to all questions given by those who have confidence in the FJP and Nour is no accident. There is a significant overlap. Of the 1,488 individuals who express confidence in either the FJP or Nour, 1,272 are the same people who have some degree of confidence in both! The situation is somewhat different in the case of supporters of the NSF and the A6M. Of the 1,693 who express some degree of confidence in either of these two groups only 668 are the same respondents. Nevertheless, the responses of these 1,693 are quite similar – in most cases, within a few percentage points of one another.

DownloadPDF.jpgDownload the poll 


Press Coverage:

Alaa Shahine, "Mursi Trust in Army's Loyalty Backfires as Egypt Teeters." Bloomberg, July 3, 2013

Star-Ledger Editorial Board, "Obama must restrain Egypt's military leaders: Editorial." The Record, July 3, 2013

"Joel Brinkley: US officials shouldn't go to bat for Egypt's Morsi." Chicago Tribune, July 2, 2013

Alaa Shahine, "News Analysis: Egyptians rally for overthrow of Mursi." Business Day, July 1, 2013

Brian Katulis, "The Obama Administration Should Prepare for More Change in Egypt." Center for American Progress, June 28, 2013

Daniel Brumberg, "Egypt on Precipice? Moving Beyond Crisis." Al-Monitor, June 28, 2013

Leslie T. Chang, "Egypt's Petition Rebellion." The New Yorker. June 28, 2013

Frida Ghitis, "World Citizen: Egypt Set for Explosive Morsi Anniversary." World Politics Review, June 27, 2013

Heba Saleh, "Egypt: A revolution betrayed." Financial Times, June 27, 2013

Louisa Loveluck, "Morsi's speech: too little, too late for oppositon." Christian Sciene Monitor, June 27, 2013

Patrick Kingsley, "Egyptian activists hope for 'second revolution' a year after Morsi's election." The Guardian, June 27, 2013

Jeffrey Fleishman. "These are dangerous days for Egypt's Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi." Los Angeles Times, June 24, 2013

Mohamed Elshinnawi, "Support Plummets for Egypt's Morsi." Voices of America, June 24, 2013

Zvi Mazel, "Arab World: Will Egypt's Morsi weather the storm?" Jersualem Post, June 22, 2013

Cam McGrath, "Egypt Marks a Spring for Islamists." Inter Press Service, June 21, 2013

Gerald F. Seib, "Beyond Syria and Iran, Obama Has Worries In Egypt As Well." Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2013

Nancy A. Youssef, "Comedy Central's Jon Stewart defends satire on Egyptian TV show whose host faces charges." McClatchy, June 21, 2013

Borzou Daragahi, "Egypt's Morsi tries to shore up popular suport ahead of protest." Financial Times, June 19, 2013

Nancy A. Youssef, "Opponents protest Egyptian President Mohammad Morsi's appointmnets." The Fresno Bee, June 19, 2013

"Support for Muslim Brotherhood wanes among Egyptians." Middle East Online, June 18, 2013

Louisa Loveluck, "Can fragmented Egypt find 15 million who want President Morsi out?" Christian Science Monitor, June 18, 2013

Bassem Sabry, "On frustration, anger, hope and 30 June."  al-Ahram. June 18, 2013

"Many Egyptians have no faith in political parties: Survey."  Saudi Gazette. June 18, 2013

"Support for Egypt Brotherhood and Morsi dwindling: ZRS." al-Ahram. June 17, 2013

Reuters, "Poll Finds Egyptians Divided, Many Dissapointed." New York Times, June 17, 2013

David Kennner, "Are Egyptians Souring on the Muslim Brotherhood?" Foreign Policy, June 17, 2013

Jim Meyers and Kathleen Walter, "James Zogby: Egypt Has 'Abandoned' Morsi." Newsmax, June 17, 2013

Mel Fabrikant, "Poll: Egyptian Support for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood Plummets." The Paramus Post, June 17, 2013.

David Ignatius, "The U.S. should help Mideast Moderates." Washington Post, June 14, 2013