After Tahrir: Egyptian Attitudes Toward Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood
From April 4 to May 12, 2013, we conducted an extensive nationwide poll of 5,029 Egyptian adults. We surveyed citizens in every area of the country from its southernmost part up into the Sinai.
With more than two years having passed since the downfall of the Mubarak government and almost one year into the presidency of Mohamed Morsi, we sought to learn how Egyptians assess their current situation, and the level of confidence they have in the current government and the country’s main political groupings and major institutions.
What emerged is a portrait of a deeply divided public with a minority strongly supporting a government that has virtually no support among Egyptians not affiliated with the President’s party. A review of the data reveals that despite the existence of many political parties, there are actually three distinct groupings defining the attitudinal map of the country.
- The Islamic Tendency (IT) which includes supporters of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP - Muslim Brotherhood) and the Nour Party
- The Organized Oppositionists (OO) which includes the supporters of the National Salvation Front (NSF) and the April 6th Movement (A6M)
- The Silent Disaffected Plurality (SDP)
Before discussing the different attitudes of each of these tendencies, it is important to note that we did not ask respondents whether they were members of any group. Because, with the exception of the Brotherhood, the other parties or groupings are relatively new and/or are loosely structured, we simply asked respondents to indicate the “level of confidence” they have in each of the groups. A review of the responses reveals a stark contrast in the attitudes and the confidence levels of those who say they have confidence in the FJP or the Nour Party and those who indicate confidence in either the NSF or A6M.
On closer examination we discovered that the near identical responses to all questions given by those who have confidence in the FJP and Nour is no accident. There is a significant overlap. Of the 1,488 individuals who express confidence in either the FJP or Nour, 1,272 are the same people who have some degree of confidence in both! The situation is somewhat different in the case of supporters of the NSF and the A6M. Of the 1,693 who express some degree of confidence in either of these two groups only 668 are the same respondents. Nevertheless, the responses of these 1,693 are quite similar – in most cases, within a few percentage points of one another.
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