Press Room

Press Releases

Poll Shows Dean Lead Increasing Among Arab American Democrats

Posted on Friday January 16, 2004

President Bush’s Overall Numbers Continue to Decline

Washington- With the presidential elections less than one year away, a new poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute and conducted by Zogby International (ZI) reports a continued decline in President George W. Bush’s favorability rating among Arab Americans to 38% from a high of 83% in October 2001. Support for former Governor Howard Dean increased among Arab American Democrats and Independents to 36% up from 14.2% in July 2003. The poll of 500 Arab American voters, conducted January 9-14, 2004, has been compared to AAI/ZI polls conducted in October 2001, May 2002, and October 2003. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.5%

· Dean lead increases
Former Governor Howard Dean expanded his lead among Arab Americans from 14.2% in July 2003 to 36% in January 2004. The jump in Dean’s numbers comes at the expense of Senator John Kerry and Congressman Dick Gephardt who saw their support drop from 14.5% to 6% and from 10.5% to 4% respectively. General Wesley Clark, who had yet to announce his candidacy at the time of the July poll, came in second among Arab American Democrats with 9% saying they would vote for the retired General if the primary were held today.

· Bush decline continues
President Bush continued to see his approval numbers decline among Arab Americans with a favorable rating of 38% in January 2004. This is down from 43% favorable in July 2003 and 83% in October 2001. Only 28% of Arab Americans say that if the election were held today they would vote to re-elect the President, compared to 33.8% in 2003.

· Middle East Policy very important to Arab American voters
America’s Middle East policy continues to be an important factor for Arab American voters with 64% saying it was the most or a very important issue in deciding their votes. “This poll shows that Arab American support for the President continues to slide. From 45.5% who voted for him in 2000 only 28% say they would vote for him if the election were held today. The principle reason for disappointment appears to be his policy in the Middle East,” said AAI President Dr. James Zogby. With only 18% of Arab Americans polled approving of the President’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict, “Arab Americans most concerned about the Arab-Israeli conflict seem to be saying that the President has not done enough to bring the parties to the table. This seems to be the major factor behind the President’s downward slide in the community.”

Arab American Poll Results, January 2004*

· Dean a strong favorite
“If the Democratic presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote?” (only asked of Democrats and Independents) (January 2004)

Governor Howard Dean: 36%
General Wesley Clark: 9%
Senator John Kerry: 6%
Senator Joe Lieberman: 5%
Congressman Dick Gephardt: 4%
Senator John Edwards: 3%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich: 3%

· Bush decline continues
“If the election for President of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote- Republican George W. Bush, the Democratic candidate, or someone else?” (January 2004)

January 2004: 28% George W. Bush 40% Any Democrat
July 2003: 33.8% George W. Bush 33% Any Democrat
2000 Election: 45.5% George W. Bush 38% Al Gore

“How would you rate President George W. Bush’s overall performance in office?” (January 2004)

January 2004: 38% favorable
July 2003: 43% favorable
October 2001: 83% favorable

· Mideast Policy very important to Arab American voters
“In 2004, how important will U.S. policy in the Middle East be in determining your vote for president?” (January 2004)

January 2004: Most/Very Important: 64.0% Somewhat/Not Important: 33.0%
July 2003: Most/Very Important: 68.4% Somewhat/Not Important: 30.4%

“How would you rate President Bush’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict?” (January 2004)

Good: 18%
Not Good: 78%

*Zogby International contacted 500 Arab American voters January 9-14, 2004. The poll’s margin of error is ± 4.5 %.