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Poll: Arab-Americans in Swing States Back Kerry

Cox News Service
Posted on Thursday October 28, 2004

WASHINGTON—Arab-Americans in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan favor Sen. John Kerry over President Bush by a margin of nearly two to one, a poll released Tuesday shows.

The findings suggest that Kerry could pick up about 200,000 more votes than Democrat Al Gore received four years ago in those four closely contested showdown states, according to the pollster John Zogby. He conducted the survey for the Arab-American Institute, a non-profit Washington group that represents the Arab American community.

The Oct. 19-21 poll showed 54 percent favoring Kerry and 28 percent favoring Bush in a three-way race with Ralph Nader, an Arab-American, polling 3.5 percent. Another 14.5 percent were undecided. Zogby’s polling company queried 500 Arab-Americans in the four states. The poll has a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

The Arab-American vote is significant enough to potentially affect the outcome in at least some of the so-called battleground states.

In Florida, for instance, where Bush won in 2000 by just 537 votes, 120,000 Arab-Americans are expected to vote, according to Zogby’s analysis.

Some 85,000 Arab-Americans will likely vote in Ohio, where Bush won four years ago by 166,735 votes.

In Michigan, where Democrat Al Gore won four years ago by 217,279 votes, 235,000 Arab-Americans are expected to vote.

And in Pennsylvania, which Gore won by 204,840 votes, some 75,000 Arab-Americans are likely to vote.

While participants named the economy as their top concern—and favored Kerry 60-32 over Bush as the candidate best able to manage economic issues—the low ratings for Bush also reflected broad disenchantment with the war in Iraq, his approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and his strong support for Israel’s hard line Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

“Israeli-Palestine is like a bloodstream issue for Arabs and for Arab-Americans,” said Zogby. “And the sense that this administration initially begged off any active engagement, and then compounded the problem by embracing in full Ariel Sharon, really alienated a lot of Arab-Americans.”

Bush enjoyed an 81 percent job approval rating among Arab-Americans in the aftermath of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. His support within that community ebbed sharply, however, when Bush launched the invasion of Iraq. It has been further undermined by the administration’s handling of the war and the absence of the alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction upon which Bush built his case for war.

Bush has also been widely perceived by Arabs and Americans of Arab descent to have favored Israel in its bloody conflict with Palestinians.

Bush took office determined to isolate Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who embodies the Palestinian cause across the Arab world. While shunning Arafat, Bush has been unable to help nurture an alternative, and Palestinians claim their voices aren’t being heard in the White House and that the United States, under Bush, has abdicated its traditional role as an honest broker in efforts to make peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

On that issue, just 16 percent of Arab-Americans rated Bush’s performance as excellent or good; 79 percent rated his performance as fair or poor. Asked which candidate would better handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 38 percent picked Kerry—whose policy platform differs little from what Bush has done—and a quarter selected Bush.

As those numbers indicate, the Arab-American community isn’t particularly wild about Kerry. Many, 43 percent, said they backed Kerry only as a vote against the Republican.

“Almost half of the Arab-American voters are saying simply, ‘He’s not Bush,”’ Zogby said.

Only 5 percent said they like Kerry “as a man,” compared to 21 percent for Bush in that category.