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AAI in the News

Poll Gives Kerry Highest Lead Over Bush Among Arab-Americans

By Will Rasmussen
The Daily Star
Posted on Wednesday October 27, 2004

BEIRUT – John Kerry rose to his highest lead among Arab-American voters, who now favor the Massachusetts senator by a 2-1 margin over President George W. Bush, according to a Zogby poll released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted in the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida predicts that Kerry will win about 60 percent of the Arab-American vote, with Bush receiving 33 percent and Ralph Nader garnering only 7 percent.

“Bush they know, and they’ve rejected,” Dr. James J. Zogby told The Daily Star in a telephone interview. “Kerry they don’t know, but there’s a different option than what they have.”

“People are ready for a change,” he said.

Support for Nader fell between September to October 2004 after the Lebanese-American independent candidate was removed from ballots in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Eighteen percent of Arab-Americans, the poll found, continue to support Nader or are undecided.

Zogby told The Daily Star that Nader “has been great on all the issues” Arab-Americans traditionally care most about, but in an increasingly partisan and divisive election there is little room for a third party candidate.

Zogby said that Bush’s handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Iraq war, and civil liberties turned many Arab-Americans against the current administration.

Domestic issues, however, still topped the list of priorities for Arab-American voters, with most of those polled listing the economy as their most important criteria for choosing a president. Terrorism and national security was ranked second.

Iraq, which since the last poll in September has moved past health care to third on the list, is a growing concern for Arab American voters.

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Kerry is favored over Bush by a 38 to 25 percent margin, with 27 percent of Arab- Americans reporting that they favor neither candidate to handle the issue.

Support for President Bush grew among Arab-Americans between February and September but dropped slightly in the October poll. Twenty-eight percent of those surveyed in February said Bush should be re-elected compared with 31.5 percent in September and 30.5 percent in October.

Bush’s support is weakest among Arab-American Muslims (13 percent say he should be re-elected) and highest among Roman Catholics (41 percent believe he should be re-elected).

Kerry’s most pronounced gains since a September Zogby poll are among Arab-American immigrants (from 48 percent support in September to 63 percent now), Arab-American Muslims (form 65 percent to 72 percent), and Arab-American Orthodox Christians (from 33 percent to 42 percent).

Kerry’s support among Arab-American Republicans jumped from 8 percent to 22 percent, offsetting gains Bush made since the Republican convention. Bush’s support among Arab American Republicans has returned to its pre-convention level.

The four states covered by the survey – Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – all rank among the top ten in Arab American population, including in total more than 1.1 million citizens.