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AAI in the News

Arab-Americans in Four Swing States

By Deborah Zabarenko
Reuters
Posted on Tuesday October 26, 2004

Arab-Americans in four battleground states favor Democratic Sen. John Kerry over Republican President Bush in the White House race, according to a poll by Zogby International released on Tuesday.

The late October poll of Arab-Americans in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida found 54 percent of respondents would pick the Massachusetts senator in a three-way race with Bush and independent candidate Ralph Nader.

This is a 7 point rise for Kerry since a similar tracking poll was taken in September. The data was the fifth and final installment of an election-year tracking poll conducted for the Arab-American Institute.

The institute’s president James Zogby, a member of the Democratic National Committee and brother of pollster John Zogby, said the numbers showed Kerry had underperformed in gaining support among Arab-Americans.

“He didn’t completely close the deal,” James Zogby said in a telephone news conference. “They’re very unhappy with the president but (Kerry) certainly could have grown higher in their appreciation.”

Less than one-third—30.5 percent—of those polled said they wanted to re-elect Bush, while 65 percent said they wanted to someone new as president.

The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Arab-Americans in these four states represent a likely voter turnout of more than 510,000 voters, comprising 5 percent of the overall vote in Michigan, 2 percent in Florida, just under 2 percent in Ohio and more than 1.5 percent in Pennsylvania.