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Arab American Voters in MI, OH, FL and PA Give Dems Strong Nod in Key Races

AAI Press Release
Posted on Thursday October 26, 2006

WASHINGTON – Oct. 25, 2006 – Arab American frustration with the Bush Administration’s foreign and domestic policies appears to be playing a significant role in shaping Arab American voter preferences in several key contests in November.

This is an overview of findings by an Arab American Institute (AAI) poll, conducted by Zogby International (ZI) during the second week in October 2006, which surveyed 701 Arab American voters in four battleground states: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The results and analysis of the poll were presented today by AAI President James Zogby and ZI President and CEO John Zogby in Washington.

The four states surveyed feature closely-watched gubernatorial and Senate contests in which Arab American voters stand to play a decisive role in determining the outcome. Collectively, the community represents a likely voter turnout of 510,000 Arab American voters who represent up to 5% of Michigan voters, 2% in Ohio and Florida and more than 1.5% in Pennsylvania.

“There’s clearly a trend in the Democratic direction and that shows up not only in head to head races, but also in the issues,” said James Zogby. John Zogby pointed out that this constitutes a
significant shift, adding, “From 1996 to 2006, there’s been a party realignment by 12 points among Arab American voters.”

While this trend may already be solidified for the 2006 election, James Zogby does not believe that this necessarily holds true for the presidential election. “This [Arab American voter] shift is not locked in place – but it could become locked if Administration policies don’t change,” he cautioned.

*Zogby International contacted 701 Arab American voters in Michigan,
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida October 6-10, 2006. The poll’s margin of error
is 3.8% Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.