Dr. James Zogby

Viewpoint Episode and Transcript: 07/05/2007

Posted on Thursday July 5, 2007

James Zogby: HI. I’M JIM ZOGBY, AND WELCOME TO “VIEWPOINT.” TONIGHT WE’RE GONNA TALK TO A COUNTERTERRORISM EXPERT, LARRY JOHNSON. WE’RE GONNA TALK ABOUT THE ATTEMPTED CAR BOMB ATTACKS IN THE U.K. AND WHAT THEY MEAN. THEN A DISCUSSION OF WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR PAKISTAN’S GOVERNMENT. BUT FIRST I WANT TO WELCOME DR. PHEBE MARR, SHE’S A LEADING HISTORIAN AND SCHOLAR ON IRAQ, SERVED AS AN ADVISOR TO THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP. SHE HELD FELLOWSHIPS AT HARVARD, THE NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY, THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER AND THE U.S. INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND IS AUTHOR OF THE
BOOK “THE MODERN HISTORY OF IRAQ.” THANKS FOR JOINING US, PHEBE.

Phebe Marr, Iraq Scholar: MY PLEASURE.

J.Z.: I WANT TO ACTUALLY BEGIN WITH A QUOTE FROM PRESIDENT BUSH THAT HE GAVE
YESTERDAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. WE PUT IT UP ON THE SCREEN. TAKE A LOOK AT IT.
HE WAS SPEAKING TO A GROUP OF VETERANS AND HE SAID, “LIKE THOSE EARLY PATRIOTS, YOU’RE FIGHTING A NEW AND UNPRECEDENTED WAR—PLEDGING YOUR LIVES, HONOR TO DEFEND OUR FREEDOM AND OUR WAY OF LIFE. VICTORY WILL REQUIRE MORE PATIENCE, MORE COURAGE, MORE SACRIFICE.” WELL, OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT I JUST DON’T UNDERSTAND THE FIRST PART OF IT AT ALL, I MEAN, I DON’T SEE THIS AS AN IRAQ REVOLUTIONARY WAR AND US AS THE AGENTS OF HELPING IN THAT REVOLUTION. BUT I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE SECOND PART BECAUSE IT’S THE ONE THAT CONCERNS ME, AND THAT’S THE “PATIENCE” ISSUE. AND I WANT TO FRAME A QUESTION TO YOU THIS WAY: THERE IS, AS YOU KNOW, AN INTERNAL DEBATE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, AND IT’S GETTING SHARPER ALL THE TIME AS WE GET INTO THIS ELECTION CYCLE. YOU HAVE WRITTEN ELOQUENTLY ABOUT WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE, YOUR TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS IN JANUARY ABOUT WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE—THE PRESIDENT’S RIGHT, A LOT OF PATIENCE AND A LOT OF HARD WORK. THE QUESTION I HAVE FOR YOU IS DO WE HAVE THE TIME FOR THIS PATIENCE BEFORE THE PLUG GETS PULLED? I MEAN, IS THERE ENOUGH TIME FOR AMERICA TO DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO GET THIS RIGHT?

Marr: WELL, FIRST OF ALL, AND I’M SURE YOU WOULD AGREE WITH THIS, IT
IS THE IRAQIS WHO ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PUT THEIR SOCIETY BACK TOGETHER.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE HAVE CREATED A CONSIDERABLE MESS THERE. WE BEAR SOME RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP. LET’S HOPE WE GET SOME HELP FROM ELSEWHERE, BUT I DON’T THINK WE SHOULD BE UNDER ANY ILLUSIONS THAT WE CAN, YOU KNOW, SOCIAL ENGINEER SOMETHING IN IRAQ. WHATEVER COMES OUT IN IRAQ, I MEAN, ULTIMATELY, SOME NEW SOCIAL DISPENSATION WILL COME OUT. IT IS GOING TO TAKE TIME. AND THAT TIME IS NOT GOING TO FIT IN WITH OUR ELECTION FRAMEWORK. I DON’T KNOW HOW HOT THE FIRE IS GOING TO GET HERE FOR WITHDRAWAL, BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DO SOME KIND OF DRAWDOWN OR SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

J.Z.: WELL, WE’RE IN THE RUNOFFS TO SEPTEMBER, AND A REPORT IS GOING TO BE ISSUED IN SEPTEMBER AND CONGRESS IS GOING TO WEIGH THAT REPORT. WE ALREADY HAVE
SENATORS LUGAR AND VOINOVICH WHO HAVE IN THE PAST BEEN SUPPORTERS OF THE PRESIDENT AND VERY MODERATE VOICES IN THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP SAYING NO, WE HAVE TO MOVE IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. AND I THINK AS WE GET CLOSER IN 2008, YOU’RE GONNA GET MORE REPUBLICANS SAYING THE SAME THING. QUESTION IS, ARE WE GONNA HEAR ENOUGH IN SEPTEMBER, ENOUGH PROGRESS IN SEPTEMBER, TO CALM THESE VOICES, OR DO YOU THINK THE DEBATE WILL GET MORE INTENSE?

Marr: WELL, IT’S DIFFICULT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE GOING TO HEAR IN
SEPTEMBER. WE’RE GONNA HEAR A MIXED BAG OF GOODS. WE HAVE HAD SOME SUCCESS IN ANBAR WITH THE TRIBES STANDING UP AGAINST AL QAEDA. MAYBE WE WOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SECTARIAN STRIFE IN BAGHDAD DOWN, BUT WE’RE CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO HAVE
HAVE COMPLETE CALM IN IRAQ. AND THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER, THE STRUGGLE OVER WHERE IRAQ IS GOING TO GO IS CERTAINLY GOING TO CONTINUE WELL BEYOND SEPTEMBER AND I
THINK WELL BEYOND OUR NEXT ELECTION. ANYHOW, IT ISN’T ABOUT THE UNITED STATES BRINGING CALM TO IRAQ. IT’S ABOUT GETTING LONG-TERM, SUSTAINABLE STABILITY AND PEACE IN IRAQ. THAT IS A VERY LONG-TERM PROPOSITION. I DON’T THINK WE’RE GOING TO BE AROUND FOR OUR MILITARY FORCES LONG ENOUGH TO ACHIEVE THAT, BUT I WOULD CERTAINLY HOPE THAT WE WOULDN’T HAVE A PRECIPITOUS WITHDRAWAL, DESERT IRAQ AND NOT LEAVE SOME ELEMENTS THERE THAT CAN HELP THE IRAQIS FIND THEIR WAY THROUGH—SHIFT DIPLOMACY, THE POLITICAL TRACK, ECONOMIC, AND SO ON. BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT.

J.Z.: I HAD A GUEST ON THE SHOW LAST WEEK TALKING ABOUT AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH. SAID THAT THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP, ITS TIME HAS COME AND GONE. THE PROPOSAL THAT THEY’RE ISSUING, AND THIS IS FROM A GROUP OF DEMOCRATS, IS THAT WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE AND ACCEPT THE FRAGMENTATION OF THE COUNTRY, THE FACT THAT’S IT’S NOT GONNA COME TOGETHER ANY TIME SOON, AND THE BEST THING AMERICA CAN DO IS LEAVE AND FORCE THE IRAQIS TO SOLVE THIS ON THEIR OWN. THAT WAS SORT OF THE ESSENCE OF THIS. WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THAT?

Marr: WELL, YOU KNOW, THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT, IF YOU LOOK AT IT CLOSELY,
DIDN’T COME QUITE AS CLOSE TO SUCH A STARK POSITION. BUT AS I READ IT, WHAT THEY SAID IS THE UNITED STATES HAS TO TAKE AN INDEPENDENT POSITION THERE. THEY HAVE TO DRAW DOWN. THEY DO HAVE TO MAKE THE IRAQIS CONFRONT THE FACT THAT THEY ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO FACE THIS ISSUE. I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE TIME IS GOING TO BE.
I HOPE IT IS SOMETHING BETWEEN PRECIPITOUS WITHDRAWAL AND AN ENDLESS STAY.
WE’RE NOT GOING TO STAY ENDLESSLY, BUT IT CERTAINLY IS GOING TO TAKE LONGER THAN 18 MONTHS FOR THE IRAQIS TO COME TO SOME SORT OF RESOLUTION OF THEIR PROBLEMS.
THEY ARE A FRAGMENTED COUNTRY. IT WILL TAKE THEM SOME TIME TO GET SOME DISPENSATION OF POWER, COME BACK TOGETHER AGAIN. MAYBE THEY DECIDE TO SPLIT UP IN SOME WAY. IT’S NOT FOR ME TO SAY, BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE SOLVED IN 18 MONTHS.

J.Z.: BACK, THOUGH, TO THE ELECTORAL CALENDAR, YOU’RE GONNA PROBABLY GET ASKED TO TESTIFY AGAIN AND GO BACK BEFORE THE SENATE AND TALK TO THEM ABOUT WHAT OUGHT TO BE DONE AFTER WE HAVE THIS SEPTEMBER REPORT IN. YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE PEOPLE SAYING, “I’M FACING ELECTION, I’M LOOKING AT A RESTIVE PUBLIC THAT WANTS TO PULL THE PLUG.” AND THEY’RE GONNA SAY—AND YOU’RE GOING TO SAY BACK TO THEM WHAT?

Marr: I WOULD SAVOR A COMPROMISED SOLUTION. YOU DON’T PULL THE PLUG ENTIRELY.
WHAT I ASSUME THIS MEANS IS A REDEPLOYMENT OF COMBAT TROOPS—OUT OF THE CITIES, MAYBE SOMEWHERE ANYONE ELSE THE REGION, BUT WE LEAVE TRAINING FACILITIES, WE CERTAINLY HELP ECONOMICALLY, WE TRY TO BRING IN HELP FROM NEIGHBORS AND OTHERS, BUT THE IRAQIS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO EITHER CONTINUE THEIR STRUGGLE OR COME TO SOME RESOLUTION ON THEIR OWN. BUT THE WITHDRAWAL NEEDS TO BE PLANNED WELL SO THAT IT DOESN’T RESULT IN—LET’S PUT IT THIS WAY, THAT IT REDUCES DAMAGE, FIRST OF ALL TO OUR TROOPS, SECOND OF ALL TO THE REGION AND HOPEFULLY ALSO TO THE IRAQIS. THERE WILL BE DAMAGE HERE NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS BECAUSE THERE ISN’T ENOUGH LOCAL FORCE—AN ARMY, POLICE, TO KEEP THE KIND OF LAW AND ORDER THAT EVEN WE ARE DOING.

J.Z.: YOU’RE RIGHT ABOUT THE MISTAKE OF DISBANDING THE GOVERNMENT, DISBANDING THE MILITARY. WE’RE NOW SEEING THE MIDDLE CLASS FLEEING IN DROVES AND SORT OF
THIS HOLLOWING OUT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS AND POTENTIAL LEADERSHIP AND STABILITY IN THE COUNTRY. HOW DO YOU GET THAT BACK ANY TIME SOON?

Marr: YOU DON’T GET IT BACK ANY TIME SOON, JIM. I MEAN, IF YOU HAVE TO REPLACE THE MIDDLE CLASS, SKILLED POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AND SO ON, YOU REALLY ARE LOOKING AT A DECADE OR TWO. YOU’RE LOOKING AT A NEW GENERATION UNLESS YOU’RE GONNA GET THE REFUGEES BACK, WHICH I DOUBT.

J.Z.: WHAT SUSTAINS THE COUNTRY IN THE NEXT DECADE OR 2 WHILE THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY?

Marr: I DON’T THINK IT IS BEING SUSTAINED. I THINK IRAQ IS IN QUITE BAD SHAPE.
IT’S VERY FRAGMENTED. PROBABLY IT’S GOING TO HAVE TO BE LOCAL—LOCAL PEOPLE. WE HAVE A SORT OF A TRIBAL POLICY. I DON’T FAVOR THAT NECESSARILY, BUT THE TRIBAL LEADERSHIP, LOCAL PEOPLE, EVEN THESE POLITICAL PARTIES THEMSELVES WITH
THEIR MILITIAS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO TERMS WITH ONE ANOTHER. AND
MAYBE THAT’S THE NEW DISPENSATION. SCIRI, WHICH IS NOW THE SUPREME COUNCIL, DAWA, MAKING A DEAL WITH THE KURDS. MAYBE THEY CAN GET SOME SUNNI GROUPS ON BOARD. THERE’S A NEW COALITION THAT I GATHER IS GOING TO TRY TO TAKE SHAPE WITH THE I.I.P., SCIRI, DAWA, EXCLUDING SADR, THE KURDISH PARTIES, MAKING A DEAL AMONG THEMSELVES. NOW, WHETHER THAT’S BROAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PEOPLE WHO FOLLOW SADR, PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THE INSURGENCY IN THE SUNNI AREA IS A BIG QUESTION.
BUT THERE ARE POLITICAL PARTIES WITH THEIR MILITIAS AND SO ON – YOU KNOW, THESE ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS TODAY IN IRAQ.

J.Z.: IF YOU WANT TO GIVE US A CALL ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK OUGHT TO BE DONE IN IRAQ AND WHAT THE NEXT STEPS OUGHT TO BE AND HOW IT’S GOING AND WHAT YOUR PROJECTIONS FROM THE FUTURE MIGHT BE, WE’RE INTERESTED IN HEARING FROM YOU…
THERE ARE TWO PARTICULAR GROUPS OF THOSE YOU MENTIONED THAT I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT, FIRST IS MUQTADA AL-SADR, OFTEN COUNTED OUT. I REMEMBER WHEN WE TALKED EARLY ON, EARLY ON IN THIS WAR, I MEAN, YOU AND OTHERS, MANY OF US WERE SAYING THAT HE WAS A YOUNG HOTHEAD AND NO BASE AND PLAYING OFF HIS FATHER’S NAME. BUT HE’S CERTAINLY HAD SUSTAINABILITY AND HAS SHOWN HIMSELF TO BE SOMEONE
BOTH WITH A HUGE FOLLOWING AND THE ABILITY THROUGH MANY ASSAULTS, TO SURVIVE THEM AND COME OUT IN SOME CASES EVEN STRONGER. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT, AND I WANT TO ASK YOU, CAN YOU FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHOUT THAT GROUP AND WITHOUT HIS INVOLVEMENT IN IT?

Marr: WELL, I THINK THAT’S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT. AND I FEEL THE SAME WITH THE SUNNI SIDE. YOU COULD BACK TO THEM AS WELL. YEAH, HE HAS - THE SHIA COALITION HAS BEEN, I THINK, RATHER SHREWD IN BRINGING HIM UNDER THE TENT, SORT OF MODERATING HIM A BIT. I DON’T KNOW WHERE HE’S GETTING ADVICE, CERTAINLY FROM SOME OF HIS FATHER’S PEOPLE AND SO ON. BUT HE HAS CERTAINLY GOT ONE FOOT IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS, AND HE APPEALS TO THE YOUTH, TO DOWNTRODDEN, AND TO PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT BENEFITED FROM 2003. AND HE HAS DEFINITELY GOT TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE POLITICAL EQUATION. HIS GROUP WOULD BE BETTER OFF-WE’D ALL BE BETTER OFF IF IT WERE UNDER THE TENT, IN THE TENT, THAT IS, RATHER THAN COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF IT.

J.Z.: REPORTS ARE THERE THAT ONE OF THE WAYS THAT WE’RE FIGHTING AL QAEDA ELEMENTS IS BY ARMING SOME OF THE MILITIAS, THE SUNNI MILITIAS, WHO HAD BEEN IN THE INSURGENCY AGAINST US AND HAVE NOW JOINED WITH US TO FIGHT AL QAEDA. MANY QUESTIONS BEING RAISED ABOUT THAT STRATEGY. ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS ABOUT IT IS THAT WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT?
DOES IT NOT UNDERCUT THE MILITARY AND THE ABILITY TO FORM A COHESIVE NATIONAL STRUCTURE?

Marr: THERE’S NO QUESTION THAT THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ IS IN BAD SHAPE BECAUSE THE SOCIETY IS SO FRAGMENTED. IN TALKING WITH SOME PEOPLE, THEY HAVE CALLED MY ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT IF WE ARE ARMING THEM—I DON’T THINK WE HAVE TO ARM ANYBODY BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE SO MANY WEAPONS AROUND—BUT THERE’S A QUID PRO QUO HERE. THEY DO HAVE TO SIGN ON TO QUOTE-UNQUOTE OBEY THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND COME WITHIN SOME KIND OF MILITARY FRAMEWORK THAT IS NOT OFF ON THEIR OWN, DOING THEIR OWN THING. BUT I WOULD LIKE TO CALL ATTENTION TO THE FACT THESE THAT GROUPS SPLIT OF THEIR OWN VOLITION, AND ALSO I SUPPOSE WITH SOME HELP FROM THE SAUDIS, AGAINST AL QAEDA. SO ANYBODY THAT’S AGAINST AL QAEDA PROBABLY IS NOT BAD TO SUPPORT. AND SECOND OF ALL, WE’RE SUPPORTING TRIBAL GROUPINGS, QUITE ASIDE FROM THESE SPLIT-OFF INSURGENT GROUPS. BUT THERE’S A NEW ANBAR SALVATION COUNCIL COMPOSED OF LOCAL TRIBAL GROUPS WHICH HAS HAD SOME IMMEDIATE SUCCESS IN QUELLING THINGS AND IS ALSO BEING LOOKED AT AS A MODEL. SO WE’RE, I GUESS WE ARE KIND OF LOOKING AT DIFFERENT LOCAL GROUPS THAT CAN STAND AGAINST AL QAEDA.

J.Z.: LINES ARE FULL, AND SO WE’LL TAKE OUR FIRST CALL FROM NEW MEXICO. CALLER?

Caller: YES, GOOD EVENING. AND THANKS, JIM, FOR TAKING MY CALL. YOU KNOW, WHILE I AGREE THAT THE TRIBAL PARTICULARS ON THE GROUND ARE IMPORTANT, I THINK THERE IS A DINOSAUR IN THE ROOM THAT KEEPS ELUDING BEING ADDRESSED, AND IT’S SOMETHING THAT PRESIDENT BUSH MENTIONED HIMSELF IN THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS, WHICH IS BASICALLY YOUR ENTANGLEMENT IN THE REGION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO OUR GREAT THIRST FOR OIL. WHEN YOU CONSIDER OVER 100 OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION APPOINTEES ARE EX-OIL EXECUTIVES—YOU KNOW, SO I HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT AS THE KEY POINT. AND
UNTIL WE FINALLY BREAK THAT ADDICTION BY REINTRODUCING ELECTRIC CARS—I URGE EVERYONE TO SEE THE DOCUMENTARY “WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR?”—WE ARE GOING TO BE STUCK, AND THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE. SO BASICALLY, UNTIL WE FORCE A CHANGE IN THAT KIND OF ENERGY POLICY—-

J.Z.: LET ME TURN THAT QUESTION AROUND. THANK YOU FOR THE CALL, BUT LET ME TURN THE QUESTION AROUND TO SOMETHING ELSE, AND THAT IS A NEW IRAQ OIL POLICY HAS JUST BEEN ANNOUNCED. TALK TO US ABOUT IT. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? THE GOVERNMENT, OF COURSE.

Marr: YES. THERE IS A LAW THAT THE CABINET HAS PASSED. I’M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT IT’S A DONE DEAL, BUT FRANKLY WHAT THEY’RE TRYING TO DO IS TO FIND SOME FRAMEWORK IN WHICH THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAN MAINTAIN SOME CONTROL OVER
THE DISTRIBUTION OF IRAQ’S OIL RESOURCES MORE EVEN-HANDEDLY AMONG THE THREE COMMUNITIES. THE KURDS ARE PRETTY CLEAR THAT THEY WANT ALMOST COMPLETE
CONTROL OF THE CONTRACTS AND SO FORTH IN THE NORTH, WHETHER THE SHIA GET THAT IN THE SOUTH IS ANOTHER ISSUE, BUT GETTING THESE GROUPS TOGETHER OVER A NATIONAL OIL LAW HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THAT’S WHAT IT’S—THAT’S WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT.

J.Z.: IN THE BEGINNING THERE WAS A CONCERN AMONG EUROPEAN AND OTHER ALLIES - EUROPEAN ALLIES AND OTHER COUNTRIES THAT THE U.S. IS GONNA GET EXCLUSIVE CONCESSIONARY RIGHTS IN IRAQ. WHERE’S THE STATUS OF THAT RIGHT NOW?

Marr: LOOK, THE STATUS OF ALMOST EVERYTHING IS ON HOLD UNTIL IRAQ GETS SETTLED.
I RECOGNIZE EVERYBODY SEEMS TO THINK THERE’S A LOT OF OIL INTEREST IN IRAQ.
I TEND TO DISAGREE A LITTLE ON THAT BECAUSE I THINK IT WAS A SECURITY INTEREST.
OIL IS NOT BEING WELL DEVELOPED IN IRAQ. THEY DON’T HAVE THE INVESTMENT. THE BIG OUTSIDE COMPANIES ARE NOT COMING IN, AND I THINK IRAQ IS A LONG WAY OFF BEFORE IT GETS ITS OIL PRODUCTION IN TOW AND AMERICAN COMPANIES COME IN. MEANWHILE, I DO TEND TO AGREE WITH THE CALLER. WE’RE GETTING OUR OIL FROM SAUDI ARABIA, FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, AND UNTIL WE SOMEWHAT REDUCE OUR DEPENDENCE ON OIL, WE’RE GOING TO BE DEEPLY INVOLVED IN THE AREA. BUT IRAQ IS A WAYS OFF, AND I MEAN YEARS, FROM A LOT OF OUTSIDE INVESTMENT, A LOT OF OUTSIDE CONCERN, OR BECAUSE THE COUNTRY’S TOO INSECURE.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO ARIZONA FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO? YES, YOUR QUESTION?

Caller: HI. PLEASURE BEING ON YOUR SHOW. I THINK MY QUESTION’S KIND OF BEEN ANSWERED BY THE PREVIOUS CALLER. I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ASK ABOUT THE OIL FIELDS LIKE—YOU KNOW, IF THE RESIDENTS OF IRAQ SEEM TO BE SO NATIONALISTIC, YOU KNOW, THEY’RE CARRYING THEIR FLAG, WHY CAN’T THEY COME TO A CONSENSUS ON AN OIL AGREEMENT FIRST OFF AND JUST SHARE THE WEALTH?

J.Z.: OK. OK.

Marr: THEY CERTAINLY SHOULD. I MEAN, THAT IS THE HEARTFELT DESIRE OF ALMOST EVERYBODY THAT LOOKS AT IRAQ, AND FOR THOSE OF US OUTSIDE, IT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE TO HAVE THAT RICHNESS AND NOT SHARE. BUT IRAQ HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN INTO A PATTERN OF ETHNIC AND SECTARIAN DIVISIONS. AND A LOT OF THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE KURDS, WHO HAVE A HANKERING FOR MORE INDEPENDENCE, AND THEY’RE SITTING ON SOME OIL RESOURCES. AND THEY’RE KIND OF DRIVING THIS IDEA THAT THEY SHOULD MOVE AHEAD AND DEVELOP. AND THEN, OF COURSE, THEY ARE MORE STABLE THAN OTHERS. BUT GETTING THESE DIFFERENT GROUPS WHO DISAGREE OVER OTHER THINGS COULD AGREE.

J.Z.: CAN THE KURDISH ISSUE GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER? AND THE ISSUE IS, THERE’S A REFERENDUM COMING UP IN THE FALL. IS THAT GOING TO MOVE FORWARD? AND IF THEY DO VOTE, IN FACT, TO CREATE A SEPARATE KURDISH STATE, HOW WILL THAT BE RECEIVED IN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY?

Marr: THEY CAN’T VOTE TO HAVE A SEPARATE KURDISH STATE. I MEAN, I THINK YOU’RE RIGHT-THE VOTE AT THE END OF THE YEAR WOULD BE WHETHER OR NOT THE KIRKUK PROVINCE AND SOME OTHER REGIONS COME UNDER THE KURDS.

J.Z.: IT WOULD ONLY BE ABOUT KIRKUK?

Marr: THAT’S RIGHT. IT WOULD ONLY BE ABOUT KIRKUK. NO I DON’T—THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT MIGHT BE POSTPONED ON SOME KIND OF TECHNICALITY OR WHATEVER WHICH PROBABLY FOR THE REST OF IRAQ WOULD BE A GOOD THING. BUT, YES, THAT WOULD BE A BIG FLASH POINT FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE REGION AND FOR OTHER GROUPS IN IRAQ AS WELL.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO GEORGIA FOR A CALL. CALLER?

Caller: YES. MY NAME IS MATTHEW BISHOP. I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHAT PLAN IS THE GOVERNMENT TRYING TO GET ALL THE GROUPS TOGETHER TO TRY TO RESOLVE SOME OF THEIR CONFLICTS OVER THERE.

J.Z.: OK.

Marr: OUR GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN THE POSITION; THEY WANT RECONCILIATION ON
DEBAATHIFICATION, THAT MEANS INCLUDING SOME OF THE SUNNIS AND BAATHISTS THAT WERE OUSTED IN THE GOVERNMENT TO SORT OF DAMP-DOWN THAT PROBLEM. TO GET AN
OIL-RESOURCE SHARING BILL AND SOME OTHER THINGS. AND THEY ARE EXERCISING SOME MUSCLE TO TRY TO GET THE GROUPS IN POWER TO RECONCILE. BUT PEOPLE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE GROUP IN POWER TODAY WAS ANTI-SADDAM, IT WAS IN OPPOSITION, MANY OF THEM IN EXILE. AND THE FEELING OF BITTERNESS AGAINST THOSE THAT WERE THERE BEFORE IS VERY DEEP—THE SUSPICION AND DISTRUST IS DEEP—AND IT’S RECIPROCATED FROM THE PEOPLE WHO WERE THROWN OUT AND NOW HAVE NOTHING—HAD SOMETHING AND NOW HAVE NOTHING. RECONCILING THESE DIFFERENCES—THIS IS A PROFOUND CHANGE. IT’S JUST NOT GOING TO BE EASY.-

J.Z.: ONE LAST CALL FROM ILLINOIS. CALLER, YOUR QUESTION? HELLO? ILLINOIS? WE ARE NOT GETTING THE CALL FROM ILLINOIS. I WANT TO GO BACK TO QUESTION ABOUT THE REPORT IN SEPTEMBER THAT’S GONNA COME UP BECAUSE A LOT IS HINGING ON THAT.
WE’RE GONNA BE—WE’RE GONNA BE LOOKING TO SEE WHERE THAT GOES TO SEE HOW THE POLITICAL REACTION HERE WILL BE. BUT THE PEOPLE IN IRAQ ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT IT AS WELL. IF THE PLUG GETS PULLED—IF IN SEPTEMBER CONGRESS SAYS, “THIS ISN’T ENOUGH. WE NEED TO TAKE A DIFFERENT DIRECTION.” WHERE DO YOU THINK THE SITUATION GOES BETWEEN SEPTEMBER AND THE END OF THE YEAR? HOW DO THE DIFFERENT PARTIES REACT TO AN AMERICAN—NOT FULL WITHDRAWAL, BUT EVEN A REDEPLOYMENT?
CAN EVEN THE WORK THAT’S BEEN DONE TO DATE, AS INADEQUATE AS IT MAY BE, BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR IF, IN FACT, THERE’S A MOVE TO BEGIN PHASING OUT?

Marr: I DON’T THINK IT IS SO EASY TO PHASE OUT OUR TROOPS AS MOST PEOPLE THINK.-
BUT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION FAIRLY, LET’S SUPPOSE IT ISN’T ENOUGH, AND THERE’S GOING TO BE A BREAK IN THE REPUBLICAN RANKS. WE’RE GONNA HAVE MORE AND MORE REPUBLICANS. BUT I SEE IT AS A SLOWER PROCESS. THEY HAVE TO GET A REASONABLE WITHDRAWAL PLAN SO OUR TROOPS CAN—LET’S SAY COMBAT TROOPS CAN GET OUT WITHOUT BEING IN DANGER, WITHOUT GETTING KILLED. I’M NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT THE IRAQI SIDE NOW. AND THAT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN PEOPLE THINK. BUT THEY’VE GOT TO START THINKING ABOUT A PLANNED WITHDRAWAL THAT DOES THE LEAST DAMAGE TO OUR TROOPS, TO THE IRAQIS, AND TO OUR INTERESTS IN THE REGION. THEY’VE GOT TO START THINKING ABOUT THAT NOW.

J.Z.: THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US. AND WE WILL SEE YOU, I HOPE IN THE FALL.

Marr: YES.

J.Z.: AND BETTER NEWS AT THAT POINT.

Marr: YES.

J.Z.: WE’RE GONNA BE UP NEXT WITH COUNTERTERRORISM EXPERT LARRY JOHNSON TALKING ABOUT THE U.K. CAR BOMB ATTACKS, AND WE’LL TAKE YOUR CALLS. STAY TUNED.

WELCOME BACK TO “VIEWPOINT.” I’M JIM ZOGBY. MY NEXT GUEST IS LARRY JOHNSON, A FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER WITH THE CIA AND A FORMER DEPUTY DIRECTOR IN THE UNITED STATES STATE DEPARTMENT’S OFFICE OF COUNTERTERRORISM. HE CURRENTLY CEO OF BERG ASSOCIATES AND AN EXPERT ON SECURITY AND COUNTERTERRORISM. THANKS FOR JOINING US. WHEN THE ANNOUNCEMENTS FIRST CAME OUT OF LONDON AND WE SAW THE SCENES OF BRITISH POLICE RUNNING IN AND OUT, PICKING OUT PEOPLE, AND THE ONE CAR THAT EXPLODED AND THE CARS THAT WERE FOUND AND HAULED AWAY, THAT LIME GREEN MERCEDES—MANY SAID WHAT A WASTE OF A REAL NICE CAR—BUT IN ANY CASE…

Larry Johnson, Former CIA Counterterrorism expert: YEP, TERRORISTS ON THE LOOSE.

J.Z.: WHEN THAT ALL HAPPENED, YOU GOT A LOT OF RECOGNITION, I THINK, FOR SOME OF THE COMMENTS YOU MADE DISMISSING THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS, SAYING THIS WAS AT BEST AMATEURISH AND THE WASTE OF A GOOD CAR. THE QUESTION I HAVE FOR YOU NOW IS,
HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR THINKING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME OF FURTHER STORIES THAT HAVE COME OUT ABOUT THIS?

Johnson: NO, NOT AT ALL BECAUSE PART OF WHAT I LOOK AT IS THE FACT THAT ON A DAILY BASIS IN BAGHDAD AND IRAQ YOU HAVE THREE OR FOUR OF THESE KINDS OF INCIDENTS WHERE PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY BEING KILLED, WHERE REAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES ARE BEING USED. I DON’T IN ANY WAY DOUBT THE INTENT OF THE INDIVIDUALS IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY WANTED TO TRY, BUT I THINK MANY TIMES IN THE WEST WE HAVE THIS
PROBLEM OF CONFUSING DESIRE AND INTENT WITH CAPABILITY. I WANT TO WIN THE PUBLISHER CLEARINGHOUSE SWEEPSTAKES. JUST BECAUSE I WANT TO DO IT DOESN’T MEAN I’M GOING TO. AND WHAT WE SAW IN THIS CASE WHERE, EVEN THOUGH YOU HAD VERY EDUCATED PEOPLE, THEY CLEARLY DID NOT KNOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING. BUT MY MAIN CRITICISM IS LODGED WITH THE MEDIA. THEY WERE COVERING THIS 24/7 AS IF THE CARS HAD ACTUALLY EXPLODED AND KILLED PEOPLE. THE FACT THEY DIDN’T EXPLODE, NO ONE DIED, AND THE ONLY ONE WHO WAS REALLY INJURED IN THE AFFAIR WAS ONE OF THE PERPETRATORS WHEN THEY SET THEIR CAR ON FIRE AT THE GLASGOW AIRPORT.

J.Z.: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE PARTICULARS OF THIS AND ASK YOU ABOUT THEM.
FIRST IS EARLY, EARLY ON THE BRITISH SAID IT WAS AL QAEDA-LINKED. A LOT OF QUESTIONS THEN RAISED ABOUT WAS IT HOMEGROWN AND DETACHED FROM THIS AND VERY AMATEURISH, TO BE SURE, AND COPYCAT. AND THEN THESE STORIES OF CANON WHITE, AN ANGLICAN PRIEST, SAYING THAT IN JORDAN HE MET A PERSON FROM IRAQ’S AL QAEDA SAYING THAT THOSE THAT CURE YOU WILL KILL YOU. AND HE DIDN’T UNDERSTAND IT AT THE TIME, BUT IN HINDSIGHT REFLECTING ON IT THINKING MAYBE THIS IS WHAT HE WAS TALKING ABOUT. DO YOU SEE AN AL QAEDA LINK HERE?

Johnson: NOT REALLY. AND UNFORTUNATELY, I THINK, IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN U.S. POLITICS, AL QAEDA HAS BECOME SHORTHAND FOR ALL TERRORISTS. THE REALITY, I THINK, WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT, MORE ACCURATELY, TAKFIRI SALAFIS. THE TAKFIRIS
WHO TAKE IT UPON THEMSELVES WITHIN ISLAM TO BE THE JUDGES OF ALL THINGS PROPER WITHIN ISLAM, INCLUDING THEIR OWN ABILITY TO CONDEMN OTHER MUSLIMS, COUPLED WITH THIS NOTION THAT THEY’RE SOMEHOW OUT THERE TO RESTORE THE TRUTH OF ISLAM. WHAT I SEE JUST LOOKING, YOU KNOW, STEPPING BACK, WE’VE GOT A BILLION-PLUS MUSLIMS IN THE WORLD, AND THE MESSAGE OF THESE TAKFIRI SALAFIS IS NOT RESONATING WITH 99%.

J.Z.: SO YOU DON’T THINK THERE WAS ANY DIRECTION HERE? WAS IT COPYCAT?

Johnson: I THINK IT’S DOUBTFUL I THINK THIS WAS – COPYCAT’S PROBABLY PART OF IT, BUT I THINK IT REFLECTS THIS UNIQUE DESIRE AMONG PEOPLE WHO CONSIDER
THEMSELVES VERY DEVOUT AND ARE GOING TO DECIDE TO TAKE ACTION ON THEIR OWN.
AND IT’S, I THINK, IT’S MORE COMMON AMONG THE YOUNG AS OPPOSED TO THE OLD THOUGH
YOU HAVE PEOPLE LIKE AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, EVEN THOUGH HE’S PART OF THE AL QAEDA LEADERSHIP. I THINK WHAT WE NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT IS DECLARING THAT AL QAEDA IS A HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATION WHERE PEOPLE SIGN UP OR ARE RECRUITED AND THEY’RE PUT TOGETHER IN THE MEMBERSHIP.

J.Z.: KAREN DeYOUNG IN THE “WASHINGTON POST” SAYS IN AN ARTICLE ON TUESDAY—SHE SAID THAT THERE IS AN EFFORT TO SEE THIS AS POSSIBLY A MODEL FOR FUTURE ATTACKS, I.E., ATTACKS THAT DO NOT TAKE LOTS OF CASUALTIES, BUT CREATE LOTS OF PANIC AND FEAR.

Johnson: LET’S HOPE THIS IS THE MODEL FOR THE FUTURE, BECAUSE
IT’S KEYSTONE COPS. THEY HAVE GASOLINE WITH PROPANE. THE PROPANE TANKS ULTIMATELY IF THEY GET HOT ENOUGH WOULD EXPLODE.
BUT THEY’RE NOT GOING TO EXPLODE AND CREATE A BLAST WAVE THAT DESTROYS
THE CAR AND KILLS PEOPLE WITHIN AN IMMEDIATE RADIUS.
IF THIS IS THE FUTURE, GREAT, WE SHOULD HAVE MORE OF THIS.

J.Z.: TALK TO ME ABOUT THE TYPES OF THE PERPETRATORS THAT WERE INVOLVED HERE.
THESE WERE DOCTORS. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR POLICE WORK IN THE FUTURE, HOMELAND SECURITY WORK IN THE FUTURE, AND CIVIL LIBERTIES?
BECAUSE THESE ARE FOLKS THAT ARE HERE IN THE U.S. THEY ARE CALLED J-1 VISAS, THE GUYS WHO COME OVER WITH SPECIALIZED TRAINING. ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A WHOLE NEW WAVE OF PEOPLE GO UNDER A VERY DIFFERENT SCRUTINY?

Johnson: I DON’T THINK THESE ARE THE FIRST DOCTORS IN THE WORLD THAT WE
HAVE EVER SEEN THAT HAVE BEEN INVOLVED WITH DOING DASTARDLY THINGS.
THERE WAS A GUY NAMED DR. JOSEPH MENGELE DURING THE NAZI REIGN.
THERE WAS A DR. BARUCH GOLDSTEIN IN ISRAEL WHO KILLED A BUNCH OF PALESTINIANS.
THERE WAS A DR. CHE GUEVARA WHO SOME DEIFY AND OTHERS VILIFY, BUT WHO WAS
INVOLVED WITH CARRYING OUT GUERILLA ACTIVITIES.
I THINK WHAT’S UNFORTUNATE IS WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT HERE IS A VERY SMALL MINORITY WHO HAVE TAKEN ACTIONS. AND NOW UNFORTUNATELY, EVERY J-1 VISA HOLDER WHO HAPPENS TO BE MUSLIM IS NOW GOING TO BE A SUSPECT.
AND I THINK THAT IS THE REAL DAMAGE THAT HAS BEEN DONE HERE.

J.Z.: I WANT TO GET YOU IN THE CONVERSATION.
IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM OVERSEAS, CALL US AT…
HOW SERIOUS DO YOU THINK THE LONDON BOMBINGS WERE, AND WHAT DO
YOU THINK IT SAYS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF ATTACKS IN THE WEST?
WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT ATTACKS IN THE FUTURE IN THE WEST?
WE HAVE SEEN LOTS OF ARRESTS HERE IN THE U.S. SOME OF THEM HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. SOME HAVE THEM TURNED OUT TO BE, WE’RE NEVER QUITE SURE WHAT THEY WERE GOING TO BE.
I MEAN, I STILL HAVEN’T FIGURED OUT THE FORT DIX CROWD.
I’M NOT SURE WHAT I WANT TO MAKE OF THE LACKAWANNA GROUP.
THE PAINT BALL CREW HERE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, I’VE GOT MY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT.
IN LONDON, THEY DID HAVE, IN FACT, THE SUBWAY ATTACKS. THEY WERE QUITE AWFUL AND
DEADLY, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SO MANY OTHERS OF THESE SWEEPS AND ARRESTS IN DIFFERENT NEIGHBORHOODS THAT PANNED OUT—TURNED OUT TO BE NOTHING AT THE END OF THE DAY.
THIS WAS A CAR THAT WENT INTO THE GLASGOW AIRPORT.
THEY CAUGHT THE TWO GUYS AND THREW THEM. YOU KNOW, THEY FANNED OUT AND CAUGHT A WHOLE LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS SAYS ABOUT WHERE WE’RE GOING? ARE WE GOING TO SEE MORE COPYCATS?
IS THIS SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO INSPIRE OTHER PEOPLE TO TRY TO GET IT RIGHT AND DO IT BETTER?

Johnson: I CAN’T IMAGINE ANY SELF-RESPECTING JIHADISTS WHO HAVE WATCHED
THE AMATEUR PERFORMANCE OF THESE GUYS AND SAID, “BOY, I WANT TO BE JUST LIKE THEM.”
THE GOOD NEWS HERE, AND WE KEEP FOCUSING UPON THE ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF TERRORISM, WHEN YOU GET OUTSIDE OF IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN, THE INCIDENCE OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IS VERY, VERY LOW.
IT’S VERY INFREQUENT.
I’M NOT SAYING IT’S NOT A THREAT WE SHOULD TAKE SERIOUSLY, BUT I THINK THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS WE END UP EXAGGERATING THE THREAT WHERE IT BECOMES ALL
ENCOMPASSING.
FOR EXAMPLE, YOU CAN LOOK AT THE NUMBERS—THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WORLDWIDE THAT HAVE DIED IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, ATTACKS INVOLVING PEOPLE FROM TWO
OR MORE COUNTRIES SINCE 1968 TILL TODAY IS FEWER THAN 50,000.
IF YOU ARE ONE OF THE 50,000 OR ONE OF YOUR LOVED ONES, OF COURSE IT’S IMPORTANT.
BUT WE PUT THAT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LOSS OF LIVES WHICH OCCUR IN WARS, WHETHER IT’S THE VIETNAM WAR, WORLD WAR II WITH 50 MILLION DEAD. I JUST THINK WE NEED TO PUT THINGS IN ITS PROPER PERSPECTIVE.

AND WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT WHAT WE ARE UP AGAINST IS THIS RADICAL ELEMENT OF TAKFIRI SALAFIS, THAT WE END UP RUNNING THE POTENTIAL OF DEMONIZING ALL MUSLIMS AND ALL ARABS.
AND I THINK THAT’S THE DANGER.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO THE UK FOR A CALL.
CALLER, YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: HELLO. GOOD EVENING.

J.Z.: LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION BEFORE YOU ASK YOUR QUESTION. HAS THERE BEEN AN OBSERVABLE CRACKDOWN THAT YOU’RE SEEING IN THE UK RIGHT NOW?
IS THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY FEELING ANY PANIC?

Caller: WELL, THIS HAS BEEN AN ONGOING THING FOR US SINCE 9/11, SO
UNFORTUNATELY, IT ISN’T ANYTHING NEW FOR US…
BUT LET ME PUT A QUICK QUESTION TO YOUR GUEST.
WE ARE OFTEN TOLD THAT ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM WAS PRESERVED BY THE IGNORANT
MUSLIM MASSES, BUT SINCE 9/11, WE HAVE SEEN A DEMONIZATION OF MUSLIM PILOTS AND NOW UNFORTUNATELY MUSLIM DOCTORS ARE GOING TO BE DEMONIZED.
SO WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?
IS THERE MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE?
BY THE WAY, I’M A MUSLIM DOCTOR.

J.Z.: OK. THANK YOU.

Johnson: NO, ACTUALLY, I THINK WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IS THAT HOLLYWOOD AND THE FILM INDUSTRY IN GENERAL TENDS TO
PORTRAY THE ISLAMIC TERRORIST AS THE POOR AND IMPOVERISHED.
AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT HISTORY ARE THE EDUCATED FOLKS.
SO IT IS A COMBINATION.
AND IT IS NOT UNIQUE TO ISLAM, BUT WHERE A DEVOUT RELIGIOUS BELIEF COUPLED WITH SOME SKILL CAN COME TOGETHER AND MAKE A PRETTY DEADLY MIXTURE.
BUT IT’S RARE.

J.Z.: ANOTHER CALL FROM THE UK. CALLER?

Caller: HELLO THERE. AS A DOCTOR, I FOUND IT DISTRESSING THAT DOCTORS ARE INVOLVED IN SOMETHING LIKE THAT, WHETHER THEY ARE AFTER YOU OR NOT.
MY QUESTION IS, I THINK YOUR GUEST IS DISMISSING THEM AS AMATEUR.
BUT DON’T YOU THINK THAT IN THE FUTURE THEY CAN MASTER IT BETTER AND SUCCEED NEXT TIME TO CAUSE MAXIMUM DAMAGE?

J.Z.: LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION ABOUT YOUR COLLEAGUES.
IS THERE A GREATER CONCERN AMONG THE DOCTORS THAT YOU WORK WITH NOW BECAUSE OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED?

Caller: YES, THERE IS, BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS CHANGING IN ENGLAND.
IT WILL BE FAR MORE DIFFICULT IF YOU ARE OVERSEAS TO COME ANYWAY.
AND THE OVERSEAS DOCTORS ARE WORRIED THAT THEY MIGHT FIND DIFFICULTY TO BE
RECRUITED FOR THE JOBS IN THE FUTURE.

J.Z.: OK, THANKS.

Johnson: JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE GONE TO COLLEGE, AND PARTICULARLY, HAVE GONE TO MEDICAL SCHOOL OR EVEN BEEN SCHOOLED IN CHEMISTRY, DOESN’T MEAN YOU HAVE AN INNATE ABILITY TO KNOW HOW TO PROPERLY BUILD EXPLOSIVES.
JUST BECAUSE YOU CAN GET ON THE INTERNET AND LOOK UP SOME BOMB RECIPES, IT DOESN’T MEAN THAT YOU ARE GOING TO BE CORRECT IN DOING IT. YOU HAVE TO BE TRAINED.
WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT YOU CAN LOOK AT BY HOW THESE PEOPLE EXECUTED THIS, THEY BARELY RECEIVED ANY TRAINING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THEY PROBABLY WERE SELF-TRAINED BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T KNOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING.
AND ONE OF THE HALLMARKS I SEE OF AN AL-QAEDA OPERATION, AND WE SAW WITH RICHARD REID, IS THE USE OF AN EXPLOSIVE SUBSTANCE THAT’S HOMEMADE CALLED TATP—TRIACETONE TRIPEROXIDE.
IT IS A VERY VOLATILE EXPLOSIVE, VERY DANGEROUS TO HANDLE, YET IT HAS BEEN SORT OF THE HOMEMADE BREW OF THE AL-QAEDA OPERATIVES.
WE DIDN’T EVEN SEE THAT IN THIS CASE. I USE THAT AS SORT OF ANOTHER INDICATOR THAT IF IT’S AL-QAEDA, THEIR TRAINING HAS BROKEN DOWN COMPLETELY.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO MASSACHUSETTS FOR A CALL. CALLER?

Caller: HI. THANKS, JIM. THANKS FOR TAKING MY CALL. I HAVE A QUESTION FOR LARRY.
I TOTALLY AGREE WITH HIM WHATEVER HE IS SAYING IN HERE.
MY THING IS THAT, WHY SHOULDN’T WE SHOW THESE PEOPLE TO THE WHOLE WORLD WHAT THEIR MIND-SET IS SO THAT THEY WOULDN’T BECOME HERO FOR OTHER PEOPLE?
I’M SURE MUSLIMS DON’T AGREE, WHAT THE THINKING OF THESE PEOPLE IS.
I MEAN, I’M SURE NOBODY AGREE WITH THEM.
BUT WE HAVE TO SHOW THESE PEOPLE AROUND. WE HAVE TO SHOW THE OTHER PEOPLE THAT THEY ARE NOT A PART OF THE ISLAMIC
WORLD, THAT THEY ARE NOT EVEN MUSLIMS IN THEIR THINKING.
SO WE HAVE TO SHOW THE OTHER WORLD WHAT THESE PEOPLE ARE.

J.Z.: THANK YOU FOR THE CALL.

Johnson: I’M NOT SAYING WE SHOULD SHOW THEM. WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT IS, IF YOU LOOKED AT THE COVERAGE AND WHAT CNN DID, WHAT MSNBC DID, WHAT
FOX NEWS DID, WHEN THIS BROKE, THEY ACTED AS IF BOMBS HAD ACTUALLY GONE OFF AND PEOPLE HAD ACTUALLY BEEN KILLED INSTEAD OF PUTTING IT INTO ITS PROPER PERSPECTIVE, AS WELL.
THEY DESCRIBED THESE AS CAR BOMBS. THEY WERE NOT CAR BOMBS.
THEY WERE A COMBINATION OF GASOLINE WITH THE PROPANE TANKS, IS STILL AN
INCENDIARY. IT IS A FLAMMABLE.
YOU HAVE TO HAVE SOME SORT OF HIGH EXPLOSIVE.
THESE WERE NOT HIGH EXPLOSIVES.
THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN TURN GASOLINE INTO A HIGH EXPLOSIVE IS BY CREATING WHAT’S KNOWN AS A FUEL AIR EXPLOSIVE,
WHERE YOU DISPERSE THE GAS PARTICLES AND THEN DETONATE THAT GAS CLOUD.
BUT YOU ARE NOT GOING TO DO THAT IN THE INTERIOR OF A MERCEDES.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED IN GLASGOW, THEY SET THE CAR ON FIRE, THE CAR BURNS. YOU PUT THE CAR OUT.
YOU’RE NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE THE BLAST WAVE ITSELF INCINERATES THE CAR, VAPORIZES IT, TURNS IT INTO SHRAPNEL.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO IRAQ FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO.

Caller: HELLO. HI, JAMES. THANK YOU FOR TAKING MY CALL. I WANT TO ASK SOMETHING ABOUT THE MILITIA, ESPECIALLY MILITIA HERE IN IRAQ.
DOES IT CONCERN, LET’S SAY A TERRORIST MILITIA—WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU MEAN—WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE SO MANY TRAININGS FOR AL-QAEDA AND ALSO THE SHIITE MILITIA IN IRAQ? DOES THIS MEAN THAT THAT IS THE SOURCE OF TERRORISTS INSIDE IRAQ? THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

J.Z.: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. DO YOU WANT TO DEAL WITH THAT?

Johnson: SURE. LISTEN, I THINK ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE HAVE IN IRAQ RIGHT NOW FROM A U.S. STANDPOINT IS, WE REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHO IS CARRYING OUT THE VIOLENCE. THE ADMINISTRATION CAN’T GET ITS FACTS STRAIGHT.
ONE MINUTE, IT IS AL-QAEDA; THE NEXT MINUTE, IT IS THE SHIA MILITIAS.
THE SHIA MILITIAS AND AL-QAEDA ARE NOT IN BED TOGETHER.
IN FACT, THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY HAS IDENTIFIED A MINIMUM OF 20 DIFFERENT GROUPS WHICH COVER THE SPECTRUM FROM EXTREMIST SUNNI TO EXTREMIST SHIA.
BUT WHAT WE KNOW FOR A FACT—AT LEAST I KNOW FOR A FACT THROUGH TALKING WITH FRIENDS AND ACCESS TO SOME INFORMATION IS—WE DO NOT TRACK VERY WELL WHO ACTUALLY IS BEHIND THE VARIOUS BOMBINGS AND ATTACKS.
SO IT BECOMES A CONVENIENT SHORTHAND TO, YOU KNOW, EVERYTHING IS AL-QAEDA ALL THE TIME.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO FLORIDA FOR A CALL. CALLER?

Caller: HI. THANKS FOR PICKING UP MY CALL.
I HAVE, LIKE, ONE QUESTION.
WHERE DO YOU THINK THE MONEY IS COMING FROM TO SUPPORT AL-QAEDA OPERATIONS IN IRAQ AND EVERYWHERE ELSE?

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Johnson: THE UNITED STATES IS SUPPLYING MUCH OF IT IN IRAQ, NOT NECESSARILY FOR AL-QAEDA, BUT I KNOW FOR A FACT TALKING TO A FRIEND OF MINE, WHO’S ON THE GROUND WITH ONE OF THE MILITARY UNITS, IS THAT THE THEFT OF AID THAT IS FLOWN INTO IRAQ HAS GONE TO FINANCE A LOT OF THE INSURGENT ACTIVITY.
IN FACT, THERE WAS A REPORT TO THAT EFFECT JUST ABOUT A MONTH AGO.

J.Z.: WE’RE ALL OUT OF TIME IN THIS SEGMENT. AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US, LARRY.

Johnson: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

J.Z.: IN THE NEXT SECTION, WE ARE GOING TO TALK ABOUT PAKISTAN, WHAT LIES AHEAD,
AND WHETHER OR NOT PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF CAN SURVIVE THE CURRENT UPHEAVAL IN THE COUNTRY.
STAY TUNED. THANKS.

J.Z.: I’M JIM ZOGBY.
AND YOU ARE WATCHING “VIEWPOINT.”
MY NEXT GUEST IS ANATOL LIEVEN. HE’S A SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION, FORMERLY WITH THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE.
HE’S A FORMER CORRESPONDENT WITH THE “FINANCIAL TIMES” AND THE “TIMES” OF LONDON AND AUTHOR OF NUMEROUS BOOKS ON FOREIGN POLICY, INCLUDING HIS LATEST—TAKE A LOOK AT IT—AND A BOOK THAT I ABSOLUTELY LOVE, AND THE ONE THAT CAME OUT
BEFORE IT ON AMERICAN NATIONALISM. IT WAS JUST BRILLIANT.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
I WANT TO BEGIN WITH A COUPLE OF ISSUES BEFORE WE GET INTO THE MAJOR TOPIC I WANT TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT, AND THAT’S PAKISTAN.
JUST TWO QUICK ISSUES.
PRESIDENT BUSH AND MR. PUTIN MET IN MAINE, KENNEBUNKPORT.
IT’S A PLACE THAT HIS FATHER ALWAYS BROUGHT—SORT OF THE CRAWFORD OF THE BUSH I
ADMINISTRATION, AND BUSH I WAS THERE.
QUESTION: WHAT DID BUSH NEED TO ACCOMPLISH WITH THIS, AND SECONDLY, WHAT DO
YOU THINK THAT THEY DID ACCOMPLISH?

Anatol Lieven, New America Foundation: WHAT THEY ACCOMPLISHED WAS TO KEEP THE PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP AMICABLE AND KEEP THE OVERALL RELATIONSHIP, YOU KNOW, ON A DIPLOMATIC FOOTING.
IN OTHER WORDS, TO STOP THIS BECOMING A REAL COLD WAR AGAIN.
THEY DIDN’T, OF COURSE, ACHIEVE AGREEMENT ON ANY SPECIFIC ISSUE,
AND I DON’T THINK THEY EXPECTED TO.
BUT SIMPLY RETAINING AN ELEMENT OF COOPERATION IS VERY IMPORTANT WHEN IT COMES, FOR EXAMPLE, TO ISSUES LIKE IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, BECAUSE IF THE RELATIONSHIP COLLAPSED ALTOGETHER, WHAT I THINK A LOT OF AMERICANS AND EUROPEANS DON’T REALIZE IS THAT RUSSIA COULD MAKE MUCH, MUCH MORE TROUBLE FOR US.
I THINK THAT AS A RESULT OF THIS MEETING, IT ISN’T GOING TO.
BUT EQUALLY, RUSSIA ISN’T GOING TO MAKE ANY MORE MAJOR CONCESSIONS TO THE WEST.

J.Z.: DO YOU THINK IT WAS IMPORTANT THAT BUSH I WAS THERE?

Lieven: I THINK SO, BECAUSE BUSH I STILL HAS THE REPUTATION IN RUSSIA OF SOMEBODY WHO TOOK A PRAGMATIC, MODERATE, PRUDENT POLICY TOWARDS RUSSIA UNLIKE SUBSEQUENT PRESIDENTS.

J.Z.: TONY BLAIR LEFT THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP TO TURN OVER TO GORDON BROWN AND BECOMES SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE MIDDLE EAST.
I HAVE A SIMPLE QUESTION. I’LL PUT IT THIS WAY.
IS IT A CHANCE FOR A REBIRTH, OR DO YOU THINK IT IS THE FINAL NAIL IN BLAIR’S COFFIN?

Lieven: I THINK IT’S THE FINAL NAIL IN HIS COFFIN.
HE IS SO UTTERLY DISCREDITED IN THAT REGION AS A RESULT OF THE WAY IN WHICH HE HAS BACKED AMERICAN AND ISRAELI POLICIES, INCLUDING THE ISRAELI INVASION OF LEBANON LAST YEAR.
I THINK HE HAS NO CREDIBILITY.
FRANKLY, IF THEY HAD BEEN ABLE TO, I THINK THAT THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT ITSELF
SHOULD HAVE VETOED THIS BECAUSE I THINK IT WILL BE BAD FOR BRITAIN, THIS ROLE.

J.Z.: WHY WOULD HE DO IT?
HE’S GOT TO BE SMARTER THAN, WELL, MAYBE, NO, OK.
LET ME REPHRASE THAT.
HE SIMPLY HAS TO KNOW THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE AT BEST A DIFFICULT ASSIGNMENT AND, THEREFORE, THE CHANCES OF HIM COMING OUT OF THIS WITH AN ENHANCED REPUTATION ARE MINIMAL AT BEST.

Lieven: YES.
BUT I THINK LIKE ALL PRIME MINISTERS AND PRESIDENTS, HE FINDS GIVING UP ANY
PUBLIC ROLE DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT.
I THINK ON THE OTHER HAND TO BE FAIR TO HIM, HE ALWAYS HAS HAD A
CERTAIN COMMITMENT TO ISRAELI/PALESTINIAN PEACE.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT HE’S ALWAYS PUT THAT IN FIFTH PLACE WHEN IT COMES TO A
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S.
SO HE PROBABLY HOPES THAT HE CAN SALVAGE SOMETHING, BUT HE IS DECEIVING
HIMSELF.

J.Z.: LET’S TALK ABOUT PAKISTAN.
YOU WERE AT THE RED MOSQUE JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO AND CAME BACK FROM A VISIT THERE, A STUDY VISIT TO PAKISTAN.
A QUESTION WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ON THE SHOW NOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS IS, IS PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF IN TROUBLE, AND WITH THAT, IS THE SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN IN TROUBLE, OR IS IT THE PERSONALITY HIMSELF AND THE MILITARY CONTROL, ET CETERA, SURVIVES?

Lieven: MUSHARRAF HIMSELF IS OBVIOUSLY IN VERY SERIOUS TROUBLE BY NOW.
AS TO THE PAKISTANI SYSTEM, IT’S BEEN IN TROUBLE FOR 60 YEARS, AND
YET IT CONTINUED TO CHUG ALONG SOMEHOW.
I THINK WHAT ONE HAS TO RECOGNIZE IS THAT THERE ARE CERTAIN
STABILITIES IN PAKISTAN WHICH SURVIVE WHETHER A CIVILIAN
GOVERNMENT OR THE MILITARY ARE IN POWER.
AND THAT HAS TO DO WITH A VERY INTRICATE WEB OF FAMILY AND CLAN
CONNECTIONS WHICH DOMINATE PAKISTANI POLITICS.
THAT IS THE FIRST THING.
AND THE SECOND THING IS THAT WHETHER IT IS, FORMALLY SPEAKING, A MILITARY OR
A CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT, ACTUALLY, THE MILITARY ALWAYS GOES ON RUNNING MUCH OF THE SHOW BEHIND THE SCENES.
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE EVEN IF MUSHARRAF FALLS, AS HE WILL SOONER OR LATER.

J.Z.: HE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE A LITTLE TOO FAR TRYING TO GET PARLIAMENT TO
REAPPOINT HIM BEFORE THE NEW ELECTIONS.
IS THAT OUT NOW AS A POSSIBILITY?

Lieven: I DON’T THINK IT IS OUT COMPLETELY AS A POSSIBILITY IF HE CAN DO A
DEAL WITH PARTS OF THE OPPOSITION AND ABOVE ALL, OF COURSE, WITH THE PPP UNDER BENAZIR BHUTTO, WHEREBY THEY ARE ALLOWED TO LEAD THE NEXT GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR SUPPORTING—
J.Z.: COULD SHE ACTUALLY COME BACK?

Lieven: WELL, SHE SAID SHE’LL COME BACK. SHE JUST SAID THAT TODAY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE BBC. AND, YEAH, SHE WANTS TO COME BACK.
OF COURSE, TO COME BACK AS PRIME MINISTER REQUIRES CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION, BECAUSE YOU CAN’T BE PRIME MINISTER MORE THAN TWICE.
BUT SHE OBVIOUSLY REALLY WANTS TO TRY TO PUSH MUSHARRAF INTO A CORNER WHEREBY EITHER HE HAS TO MAKE A DEAL WITH HER TO ALLOW HER TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER AGAIN OR HE IS FORCED FROM OFFICE.
BUT THE WAY HE WILL BE FORCED FROM OFFICE IN THE END WILL NOT BE BY PPP CROWDS STORMING THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, IT WILL BE
BECAUSE THE OTHER SENIOR GENERALS IN THE END DECIDE THAT HE’S MORE TROUBLE THAN HE IS WORTH.

J.Z.: THE ISSUE OF REMOVING THE CHIEF JUSTICE SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN THE FLASH POINT THAT IT WAS, BUT IT BECAME A FLASH POINT AND A PREVIOUSLY NOT HUGE NATIONAL FIGURE IN THE COUNTRY IS DRAWING, DARE I SAY, OBAMA-SIZE CROWDS WHEREVER HE GOES.
HE HAS BECOME A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL FIGURE AS A RESULT OF THIS.
WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE RED MOSQUE, AND DOES IT HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF INFLAMING A LARGE PUBLIC SUPPORT BASE,
OR DO MOST PAKISTANIS JUST SEE THIS AS AN EXTREMIST GROUP AND DO NOT WANT TO ASSOCIATE WITH IT AND DON’T CARE IF IT GETS CRACKED DOWN ON?

Lieven: I THINK ONE HAS TO DISTINGUISH HERE BETWEEN THE PASHTUN AREAS OF PAKISTAN IN THE NORTHWEST FRONTIER PROVINCE AND THE TRIBAL AREAS AND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, THOUGH, BY THE WAY, THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF PASHTUNS IN KARACHI.
THEY ARE GOING TO BE INFLAMED BY THIS PARTLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN GREATLY INFLAMED BY U.S. AND NATO ACTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN.
AND A LOT OF THE MILITANTS OF THE RED MOSQUE ARE, IN FACT, PASHTUNS.
SO, I THINK YOU WILL SEE MORE TROUBLE IN THE PASHTUN AREAS AND YOU’LL SEE MORE
SUICIDE BOMBINGS.
ACCORDING TO EVERY OPINION POLL AND SURVEY, I DON’T THINK THAT YOU’LL SEE THIS LEADING TO A NEW WAVE OF MASS ISLAMIST SUPPORT
IN PAKISTAN AS A WHOLE.

J.Z.: LET’S GET THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE WATCHING INTO THE CONVERSATION…
THERE’S A GROWING SENSE OF DISSATISFACTION—I DARE SAY—IN CONGRESS WITH PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF’S PERFORMANCE.
WHILE HE HAS A PARTICULAR GEOPOLITICAL NEED TO PROTECT HIMSELF IN TERMS OF HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH AFGHANISTAN, HIS CONCERNS ABOUT AFGHANISTAN, THE RELATIONSHIP WITH INDIA, THE U.S.’S PRESENCE THERE AND WHAT IT IS DOING TO INFLAME TRIBES IN THE NORTH, ET CETERA., THERE ARE THOSE HERE WHO SAY, “GO THE WHOLE WAY WITH US OR WE ARE GOING TO CUT YOU OFF.”
I DON’T THINK THE CUTOFF IS GOING TO COME, BUT HE IS IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION, DEALING WITH A U.S. THAT HE NEEDS FOR
STABILITY IN HIS COUNTRY, ACTUALLY, TO PROTECT AND PROVIDE THE MILITARY
WHAT IT NEEDS AND A U.S. THAT IS VERY UNPOPULAR AND A U.S. THAT IS RIGHT NEXT DOOR AND IT IS HIS NORTHERN BORDER, INFLAMING TRIBES TO THE NORTH OF HIS COUNTRY. IT’S A COMPLEX SITUATION.
WILL THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER HAVE ANYTHING DIFFERENT OR IS IT
GOING TO BE THE SAME SITUATION PLAYING ITSELF OUT?

Lieven: IT WILL BE THE SAME SITUATION IN MY VIEW, BECAUSE AS YOU’VE SAID, THE CORE PROBLEM IS THAT AMERICAN POLICY AND THE WAR ON TERROR AND IN AFGHANISTAN IS MASSIVELY OVERWHELMINGLY UNPOPULAR WITH THE PAKISTANI PEOPLE. THAT’S ONE.
SECONDLY, IT’S VERY UNPOPULAR IN THE ARMY, ALTHOUGH THAT HAS BEEN KEPT, YOU KNOW, UNDER WRAPS.
AND THIRDLY, IT IS ALMOST, AS I FOUND IN PESHAWAR, UNANIMOUSLY UNPOPULAR IN THE PASHTUN AREAS OF PAKISTAN.
NOW, THAT WILL FACE ANY PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT, WHETHER CIVILIAN OR MILITARY WITH A VERY SEVERE AND, INDEED, BASICALLY INSOLUBLE DILEMMA.
WHOEVER IS IN POWER IN ISLAMABAD WILL HAVE TO WALK A TIGHTROPE
BETWEEN MEETING AMERICAN SUPPORT, NOT ALIENATING AMERICA TOO FAR, BUT, EQUALLY, NOT DOING SO MUCH TO HELP AMERICA THAT IT REALLY CREATES AN EXPLOSIVE
SITUATION AT HOME.

J.Z.: WHAT CAN AMERICA DO? LET’S TAKE A CALL.
WE HAVE A CALLER HOLDING FROM IRAQ AGAIN.
CALLER, YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: YEAH. HI, JAMES.
THANK YOU AGAIN FOR TAKING MY CALL, ACTUALLY.
I THINK IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT, HELPING THE AMERICANS.
AND PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF NEEDS TO SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING INSIDE PAKISTAN BY HELPING THE AMERICANS TO BE A BASE FOR ATTACKING IRAN I THINK IS A VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR US HERE. AND I THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

Lieven: I DIDN’T FOLLOW.

J.Z.: THE QUESTION WAS ABOUT PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HELPING AMERICA PROVIDE A BASE FOR ITS ATTACKING IRAN, HE SAID, MAYBE AFGHANISTAN, ET CETERA.
THIS BECOMES, THEN, THE NEW SOURCE OF INSTABILITY IN THE COUNTRY?

Lieven: ABSOLUTELY.
BUT I DON’T THINK PAKISTAN COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW AMERICA TO USE PAKISTAN AS A BASE FOR ATTACKING IRAN.
THAT WOULD BE DISASTROUS FOR PAKISTAN.
IT HAS BEEN BAD ENOUGH FOR PAKISTAN HAVING HAD TO HELP AMERICA WITH ITS ACTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN.

J.Z.: I TAKE THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING, THEN, THAT WHILE PASSIONS ARE INFLAMED AND TRIBAL CONFLICTS ARE DEFINING IN TERMS OF THE CHARACTERISTIC OR TRIBAL IDENTIFY AND RELATIONSHIPS, NOT SO MUCH CONFLICTS, YOU DO NOT SEE, AS SOME AMERICANS DO, ISLAMIC EXTREMISM OR RADICALISM AS A DEFINING PROBLEM INSIDE PAKISTAN?

Lieven: IT IS A REAL PROBLEM.
BUT I THINK YOU HAVE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THE MASS SUPPORT FOR THE
TALIBAN, WHICH DOES EXIST WIDELY IN THE PASHTUN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIBAL
AREAS, AND THE MUCH MORE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR EXTREMISTS, LIKE THOSE IN THE
RED MOSQUE, IN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.
NOW, OBVIOUSLY, THESE TWO THINGS OVERLAP, BUT THEY ARE DISTINCT.
IN THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE, I SEE THE ISLAMIST THREAT NOT IN TERMS OF MASS SUPPORT OR ANY THREAT OF A REVOLUTION.
IT IS, HOWEVER, A REAL THREAT IN TERMS OF TERRORISM.
MUSHARRAF HAS SURVIVED TWO ATTACKS.
WHILE I WAS IN PAKISTAN, THERE WAS A SUICIDE ATTEMPT AGAINST THE
INTERIOR MINISTER WHICH ALMOST KILLED HIM AND KILLED 22 OTHERS.
THAT, I THINK, IS BOUND TO INCREASE IN THE FUTURE AND, OF COURSE, IS A REAL THREAT TO THE GOVERNMENT.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO TEXAS FOR A CALL.
CALLER. HELLO.

Caller: YES.

J.Z.: YES. YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: THANK YOU FOR TAKING MY CALL.
MY QUESTION IS SUICIDE BOMBING IN AFGHANISTAN TWO YEARS AGO WAS
ALMOST NONEXISTENT.
BUT NOW THERE ARE TWO OR THREE INCIDENTS OF SUICIDE BOMBING ON A DAILY BASIS.
WHAT DOES YOUR GUEST THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SUICIDE BOMBING IN AFGHANISTAN?

J.Z.: OK. THANK YOU.

Lieven: MY OWN FEAR IS THAT A CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IN
AFGHANISTAN IS WITH US FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
I FIND IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ENVISAGE A U.S. OR NATO STRATEGY BY NOW
WHICH CAN REALLY REDUCE THIS, LET ALONE BRING IT TO AN END, BECAUSE
TOO MUCH OF THE POPULATION IS TOO ALIENATED.
IN THE LONG RUN—BUT HERE I’M TALKING ABOUT A DECADE AT LEAST—WE
MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SUFFICIENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST IN CERTAIN AREAS TO BEGIN TO UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT.
COUPLED WITH IF WE SIMPLY GO ON FIGHTING, IN ANOTHER DECADE, IT MAY BE THAT ENOUGH PEOPLE WILL SEE THAT THEY SIMPLY CAN’T
WIN OUTRIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO GO HOME OR EVEN AS SOME TALIBAN COMMANDERS HAVE DONE, THEY’LL DO A DEAL.
BUT ON TOP OF THE INCREASED SKILLS IN TERRORISM AND GUERRILLA WARFARE, WHICH HAVE FLOWN TO AFGHANISTAN FROM IRAQ, THE CHANCES OF AN EARLY WESTERN VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN ARE NOW ZERO.

J.Z.: TALK TO ME ABOUT KASHMIR.
I WAS GOING TO RAISE THAT ISSUE A MOMENT AGO.
THAT IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR DOMESTIC POLITICS IN PAKISTAN, THE RELATIONSHIPS WITH INDIA, AND FOR BROADER REGIONAL POLITICS,
BECAUSE THAT, OF COURSE, IS ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES THAT CAUSES A CONCERN ABOUT AFGHANISTAN, I.E., PAKISTAN BEING SURROUNDED BY A HOSTILE—THEY WOULD FEEL—INDIAN INFLUENCE.
IF THERE WERE A PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN OVER KASHMIR, IT WOULD DO A GREAT DEAL TO CALM REGIONAL TENSIONS.
ANYTIME IN THE FUTURE?
ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE THAT’S IN THE OFFING?
OR IS THAT SIMPLY NOT ON THE AGENDA, BECAUSE I HAVEN’T HEARD AN AMERICAN OFFICIAL TALK ABOUT THAT FOR LITERALLY YEARS.
WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT. SORRY.

Lieven: MUSHARRAF HAS NOW ADOPTED POSITIONS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO THOSE OF THE KASHMIR WORKING GROUP IN TERMS OF A NORTHERN IRISH SOLUTION,
YOU KNOW, WHICH ACCEPT THE EXISTING FRONTIER BUT SOFTEN IT, CREATE TRANS-BORDER INSTITUTIONS.
IN OTHER WORDS, A COMPROMISE THAT WOULD SAVE PAKISTAN’S FACE WHILE LEAVING THE EXISTING SYSTEM AT BOTTOM LARGELY UNCHANGED.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT INDIA IS NOW IN SO MUCH OF A SUPERIOR POSITION THANKS TO AMERICAN SUPPORT IN THE WAR ON TERROR THAT INDIA
DOESN’T FEEL THE NEED TO MAKE ANY COMPROMISES AT ALL.

J.Z. YEAH. WE ARE OUT OF TIME. BUT THANKS FOR JOINING US. I WANT TO THANK MY GUESTS, AND I WANT TO THANK THOSE OF YOU WHO CALLED. SORRY WE DIDN’T GET TO ALL THE CALLS.
I’LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK ON “VIEWPOINT.” THANKS.