Dr. James Zogby

Viewpoint Episode and Transcript: 07/19/2007

Posted on Monday July 23, 2007

James Zogby: HI, I’M JIM ZOGBY, AND WELCOME TO “VIEWPOINT.”
TONIGHT WE’LL SPEND THE ENTIRE HOUR TAKING AN IN-DEPTH LOOK AT THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, “THE TERRORIST THREAT TO THE U.S. HOMELAND.” IT WAS RELEASED LAST TUESDAY. WE’LL GET PERSPECTIVES FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND THE STATE DEPARTMENT’S TOP ADVISOR ON IRAQ AND ON THE NATION’S LEADING EXPERTS ON TERRORISM. THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE WASN’T THE ONLY MAJOR REPORT, THOUGH, ISSUED IN RECENT DAYS. ON JULY 12, THE WHITE HOUSE RELEASED ITS FIRST BENCHMARK REPORT ON IRAQ, AND ON JULY 16, THE PRESIDENT GAVE A SPEECH ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS SINCE HE FIRST DECLARED HIS SUPPORT FOR A PALESTINIAN STATE. WELL, WE’LL DISCUSS PRESIDENT BUSH’S ASSESSMENT AND PROPOSALS FOR PALESTINE IN GREATER DETAIL ON NEXT WEEK’S “VIEWPOINT.”
BUT TONIGHT I WANT TO DISCUSS THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. THESE REPORTS, THE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES, ARE THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY’S MOST AUTHORITATIVE WRITTEN JUDGMENTS ON NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES. THEY’RE DESIGNED TO HELP THE MILITARY AND CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP DEVELOP POLICIES TO PROTECT NATIONAL SECURITY. THE REPORTS ARE HIGHLY CLASSIFIED, AND IN RECENT YEARS A FEW OF THEM HAVE LEAKED TO THE PRESS. THIS REPORT, HOWEVER, WASN’T LEAKED. IT WAS RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC. I WANT TO BEGIN OUR DISCUSSION NOW WITH DAN SUTHERLAND. HE’S OFFICER FOR CIVIL RIGHTS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES AT THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY. HE’S A LONGTIME CIVIL RIGHTS ATTORNEY WITH 14 YEARS OF SERVICE AT THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE. HE SERVED AS THE WHITE HOUSE DOMESTIC POLICY COUNSEL AND WAS CHIEF OF STAFF FOR ONE OF THE LARGEST CIVIL RIGHTS OFFICES IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AT THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. THANKS FOR JOINING US, DAN.

Daniel Sutherland: THANK YOU.

J.Z.: LISTEN, I WANT TO GET RIGHT AWAY INTO A QUESTION I SORT OF HINTED AT.
WHY WAS THIS ONE MADE PUBLIC? USUALLY THEY’VE BEEN VERY SECRET—LEAKED OUT AND THEN LATER ON PEOPLE EXPLAIN WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT. BUT THIS WAS MADE PUBLIC RIGHT FROM THE GET-GO AND IN A HIGHLY PUBLIC WAY, WITH PRESS CONFERENCES, FANFARE, CONFERENCE CALLS, AND THE LIKE. WHY? IS IT AN EFFORT TO ALERT THE NATION, ALARM THE NATION OR…

Sutherland: WELL, I THINK IT’S AN EFFORT TO ALERT THE NATION. THE PROBLEM IN THE RECENT PAST, AS YOU ALLUDED TO, IS THAT SECTIONS OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES ARE LEAKED. THIS IS AN EFFORT TO TRY TO MAKE THE BULK OF THE CONTENT AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC ALL AT ONCE.

J.Z.: AND SUCCESSFUL IN THAT IT WAS DONE THAT WAY? I MEAN, HAVE YOU FOUND THAT THE PRESS WAS GUIDED IN HOW THEY APPROACHED IT, OR DID THEY SPECULATE IN MANNERS THAT WERE NOT HELPFUL?

Sutherland: NO, I THINK IT WAS VERY WELL DONE. I THINK—THE MORNING AFTER, I READ TWO ARTICLES IN THE “NEW YORK TIMES” ABOUT THE DIFFERENT IMPLICATIONS OF IT. AND THEY INCLUDED IN THERE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POINTS, I THINK, THAT I HOPE WE’LL TOUCH ON HERE, WHICH IS THAT THE EXTREMISM, THE VIOLENCE, THE VIOLENT IDEOLOGY, HAS NOT TAKEN ROOT AMONG AMERICA’S ARAB AND MUSLIM COMMUNITIES.

J.Z.: WE’LL GET INTO THAT IN A MINUTE. AND IN THE NEXT SEGMENT, WE’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT ONE AREA THAT DID EXPLODE IN THE PRESS AND THAT’S HOW THE IRAQ FACTOR, OR COMPONENT, WAS PLAYED OUT.

Sutherland: SURE.

J.Z.: BUT I WANT TO LOOK AT A NUMBER OF QUOTES AND THEN AT THE END OF IT ALL ASK YOU TO COMMENT. THERE WERE THREE IN PARTICULAR I WANT TO TARGET AND THAT IS THE AREAS OF CONCERN ABOUT TERRORISM, THE FIRST ONE BEING AL QAEDA.
HERE IS WHAT THE REPORT SAYS. IT SAYS, “ALTHOUGH WE HAVE ONLY DISCOVERED A HANDFUL OF INDIVIDUALS IN THE U.S. WITH TIES TO AL QAEDA, WE JUDGE THAT AL QAEDA WILL INTENSIFY ITS EFFORTS TO PUT OPERATIVES HERE.” AND THEN THE NEXT ONE IS WITH REGARD TO HEZBOLLAH. THEY SAY, “WE ASSESS LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH, WHICH HAS CONDUCTED ANTI-U.S. ATTACKS OUTSIDE THE U.S. IN THE PAST, MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO CONSIDER ATTACKING THE HOMELAND OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS IF IT PERCEIVES THE U.S. AS POSING A DIRECT THREAT TO THE GROUP OR IRAN.” AND, THIRDLY, IT TALKS ABOUT THE FOLLOWING. IT SAYS, “WE ASSESS THE SPREAD OF RADICAL INTERNET SITES INDICATE THAT RADICAL AND VIOLENT SEGMENTS OF THE WEST’S MUSLIM POPULATION IS EXPANDING, INCLUDING IN THE U.S.” AND THEN IT CONCLUDES THAT “THE U.S. CURRENTLY IS AT A HEIGHTENED THREAT ENVIRONMENT.” I WANT TO START, ACTUALLY, AT THAT POINT. “HEIGHTENED THREAT ENVIRONMENT,” WHAT EXACTLY DOES THAT MEAN? THE ALERT DIDN’T GO UP. WE’RE NOT IN ORANGE, AND WE’RE NOT IN RED, BUT WE HAVE A “HEIGHTENED THREAT ENVIRONMENT.” WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Sutherland: WELL, WE ARE IN A HEIGHTENED THREAT, WE’VE KNOWN FOR A NUMBER OF MONTHS, SINCE LAST AUGUST, IN THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY PARTICULARLY, SINCE THE LONDON ARRESTS LAST YEAR WITH THE BOMBING PLOT. SO WE HAVE BEEN IN A HEIGHTENED THREAT ENVIRONMENT IN THOSE AREAS. AND EVEN AFTER THE LONDON-GLASGOW INCIDENTS, YOU SAW MORE PRESENCE AT AIRPORTS AND SOME OTHER PLACES WITH CANINES AND OTHER THINGS. BUT THEY—THE MESSAGE, I THINK, THAT OUR SECURITY OFFICIALS ARE SENDING IS WE CAN GO ABOUT LIVING OUR LIVES, WE NEED TO BE ALERT, AND WE DO NEED TO BE VIGILANT.

J.Z.: SECRETARY CHERTOFF SAID A WEEK OR SO AGO, HE SAID HE HAD A GUT FEELING ABOUT AN ATTACK THIS SUMMER. THAT COUPLED WITH THE REPORT COMING OUT CERTAINLY MAKES ME WONDER DO THEY KNOW SOMETHING THAT THEY’RE NOT TELLING US ABOUT?
DO THEY NOT KNOW AND ARE JUST SORT OF PREPARING US FOR THE WORST AND THEMSELVES FOR THE WORST? OR IS IT A GUESS?

Sutherland: WELL, THERE ISN’T A CREDIBLE, SPECIFIC CREDIBLE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, WE’RE NOT INCREASING ALERT LEVELS. THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT SECRETARY CHERTOFF’S COMMENTS, WHICH CAME A FEW DAYS PRIOR TO THE RELEASE OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, IS HE MADE THOSE COMMENTS, AND THEN A COUPLE HOURS LATER HE WAS IN A MOSQUE IN DETROIT, A SHIITE MOSQUE IN DETROIT, MEETING WITH JEWISH AND CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM LEADERS WHERE HE TALKED ABOUT THE ROLE OF, THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN MUSLIM COMMUNITY AND OUR INTERFAITH TRADITIONS HERE AND RELATED IT TO HIS COMMENT ABOUT THAT WE ARE IN A CHALLENGING ERA AND A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING NUMBER OF MONTHS AND THEN CONNECTED IT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN MUSLIM COMMUNITIES. THAT WAS NOT REPORTED.

J.Z.: TALK TO ME ABOUT THE INTERNET SITES. YOU DEAL WITH THE COMMUNITY A LOT AND…ARE THESE SITES ORIGINATING HERE?

Sutherland: WELL, THESE ARE SITES THAT ARE REALLY BEYOND WHAT SOMEBODY IS TYPICALLY GOING TO LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, JUST GOING ON THE INTERNET. THESE ARE FOR, YOU KNOW, A SMALL, FRINGE ELEMENT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING THERE. I KNOW THE AMERICAN MUSLIM COMMUNITY IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THEM. AND WE’VE HAD TALKS WITH PEOPLE ABOUT HOW WE WOULD REALLY LIKE TO HAVE THE FREEDOM TO DIVE INTO SOME OF THESE WEBSITES AND TRY TO TALK PEOPLE OUT OF THE NONSENSE THAT IS PERPETRATED THERE. BUT I THINK THAT IS A REAL CONCERN THAT I PERCEIVE FROM THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS VIOLENT, EXTREMIST-FOCUSED WEBSITES.

J.Z.: LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH. I KNOW AND YOU KNOW THAT THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE IN THE LEBANESE COMMUNITY AND IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WHO HAVE VERY STRONG TIES TO LEBANON HAVE IN THE PAST FELT THAT HEZBOLLAH WAS A RESISTANCE MOVEMENT THAT MOVED THE ISRAELIS OUT. THEY WERE ANGRY ABOUT LAST SUMMER’S ISRAELI ATTACK IN LEBANON. AND THEY’RE GOING TO LOOK AT THIS AND SAY, “IS THIS GOING TO PUT US UNDER INCREASED SCRUTINY?” AND WHAT DO YOU SAY BACK TO THEM? HE WAS IN DEARBORN. THAT’S WHERE MANY OF THE LEBANESE SHIA COMMUNITY LIVE. WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THEM? AND WHAT CONCERNS HAVE YOU HEARD FROM THEM ABOUT THIS CONCERN ABOUT AN ATTACHMENT TO HEZBOLLAH?

Sutherland: WELL, WE HAVEN’T HEARD ANY CONCERNS AND I THINK IT’S BECAUSE OF THE QUALIFIERS. FIRST, THIS IS AN ASSESSMENT LOOKING OUT THREE YEARS, SO HE’S NOT TALKING NECESSARILY ABOUT SOMETHING THAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THE SECOND THING IS THAT STATEMENT ABOUT HEZBOLLAH COMES WITH A BIG “IF” ON THE BACK END OF IT. IT PRESUMES THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME VIOLENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN OR VIOLENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND HEZBOLLAH THERE IN THE REGION THAT WOULD THEN TRIGGER ACTIONS BY HEZBOLLAH HERE. SO THERE ARE BIG “IF’S” ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.

J.Z.: THIS QUOTE SAYS THE ARREST AND PROSECUTION OF A NUMBER OF VIOLENT EXTREMISTS INSIDE THE U.S. POINTS TO THE POSSIBLY THAT OTHERS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY RADICALIZED, THEY MAY VIEW THE USE OF VIOLENCE HERE AS LEGITIMATE.
I’VE LOOKED AT A LOT OF THESE CASES AND WE TALKED A LITTLE ABOUT THEM BEFORE THE SHOW. THE MOST RECENT ONE WAS THE MIAMI GROUP AND THE J.F.K. GROUP. I MEAN, I GUESS ONE COULD ONLY DESCRIBE THEM AS LOST SOULS. I MEAN, POWER AND - I MEAN POOR AND ACTUALLY QUITE DISTURBED INDIVIDUALS WHO SEEMED TO BE CAUGHT UP IN A STING OPERATION. THERE WAS THE NORTH CAROLINA TOBACCO CASE, A GUY SELLING CIGARETTES ACROSS STATE LINES WITHOUT TAX MONIES AND USING THE PROFIT AND SENDING IT TO SUPPORT HEZBOLLAH. AND THE PAINTBALL GROUP HERE IN NORWEGIAN VIRGINIA AND THE LACKAWANNA GROUP. ALL OF THEM, WHILE THEY WERE CRIMINAL IN THE SENSE THAT THE ISSUE OF PROVIDING SUPPORT WAS THERE, THEY’RE ALL UNRELATED.
I GUESS, WHEN I LOOK AT THIS, IT’S A SMALL NUMBER. THAT’S THE GOOD NEWS HERE, RIGHT? BUT OTHER THAN THE IMMEDIATE 9/11 AND MOUSSAOUI AND A FEW OTHERS, WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? I MEAN, IS THERE AND HAS THERE BEEN AN AL QAEDA PRESENCE HERE THAT WE OUGHT TO BE WORRIED ABOUT OR NOT? NONE OF THE CASES I MENTIONED ARE ACTUALLY AL QAEDA CASES.

Sutherland: RIGHT. WHAT I’VE HEARD IS NO AL QAEDA PRESENCE. TERMS LIKE FRINGE, SMALL, CULTISH-THE OFFICIAL POSITION OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT STATED QUITE REGULARLY, IN EITHER TESTIMONY IN FRONT OF CONGRESS OR IN PUBLIC OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS RELATED TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE IS THAT THE AMERICAN ARAB MUSLIM COMMUNITY IS STRONG, PROSPEROUS, THOUGHTFUL, INTEGRATED, IT’S CONTRIBUTING AND IT’S AN ASSET. THAT’S THE OFFICIAL POSITION.

J.Z.: LET ME GET TO THOSE OF YOU WATCHING OUT THERE. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM OVERSEAS, 001-202-842-5056. IN THE U.S., 1-800-528-2090. ONE OF THE ISSUES RAISED, A CONCERN THAT THEY HAD IS THAT THEIR SUPPORT IS NOT ALWAYS AS PUBLICLY RECOGNIZED AS IT OUGHT TO BE. ANY INITIATIVE BEYOND WHAT YOU JUST NOTED AND SECRETARY CHERTOFF’S VISIT TO MICHIGAN? I CAN SEE SOME ASPECTS OF THIS REPORT GOING OUT TO THE PUBLIC AND PEOPLE SAYING IT REALLY FORCES THE NOTION THAT THEY’RE HERE AND WE DON’T TRUST THESE PEOPLE, THEY’RE NOT DOING ENOUGH TO STOP IT. TALK TO ME ABOUT THAT. WHAT INITIATIVES DO YOU HAVE IN THE WORKS, IF ANY, TO DEAL WITH THIS?

Sutherland: I THINK WE’RE GETTING BETTER AT THIS. BOTH IN THE COMMUNITY, IN TERMS OF GETTING OUT THE GOOD INFORMATION, AND FROM THE GOVERNMENT LEADERS BEING WILLING TO AND TO MAKE STRONG STATEMENTS. SECRETARY CHERTOFF WENT TO THE MOSQUE, AND THEN WE WENT ALSO TO A PRESS CONFERENCE WHERE HE TALKED DIRECTLY TO THE PRESS. THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF NEWS ABOUT IT IN THE DETROIT AREA, BUT NOT A LOT OF NEWS NATIONALLY, WHICH IS FRUSTRATING TO US. BUT HE ALSO RECENTLY GAVE A SPEECH TO ABOUT 500 JEWISH LEADERS, THE ADL, ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUES, THE NATIONAL LEADERSHIP CONFERENCE, AND TALKED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF INTEGRATING MUSLIMS IN AMERICA INTO GOVERNMENT SERVICE, FOR EXAMPLE. HE RECEIVED A STANDING OVATION. AGAIN, NO MEDIA COVERAGE. SO WHAT WE’RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IS WAYS TO TAKE STRONG LEADERSHIP STATEMENTS LIKE THAT, MAKE SURE THE COMMUNITY KNOWS, AND THE COMMUNITY THEN CAN DISTRIBUTE THAT INFORMATION. AND TO SOME EXTENT WE HAVE TO BYPASS, SORT OF, THE TRADITIONAL MEDIA THAT ARE FOCUSED ON, YOU KNOW, THE BIG HEADLINE OF THE DAY, YOU KNOW, THE LATEST HOLLYWOOD STAR IS ARRESTED OR THE FOOTBALL PLAYER WHO IS ARRESTED OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

J.Z.: ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT A BACKLASH?

Sutherland: THAT’S WHY WE HELD THIS NATIONAL—-OR THIS CALL ABOUT THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, TO MAKE SURE THAT COMMUNITY LEADERS UNDERSTOOD WHAT IT MEANT AND CERTAINLY WHAT IT DID NOT MEAN, AND THEN FOR THE NEWS TO GET OUT THAT WAY.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO FLORIDA FOR OUR FIRST CALL. CALLER, YOUR QUESTION?

Caller: YES. I RECENTLY CONVERTED TO ISLAM, AND I’M VERY HAPPY ABOUT IT.
I HAVE A LOT OF MUSLIM FRIENDS, THOUGH, WHO HAVE CAUTIONED ME NOT TO TELL ANYBODY FOR FEAR OF A BACKLASH. AND I WANTED TO ASK MR. SUTHERLAND,
IS THE GOVERNMENT PLANNING ON ADDRESSING THIS AGAIN? IS THERE A PROBLEM?

Sutherland: YEAH. I WOULD STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH THE ADVICE GIVEN BY YOUR FRIENDS. THE GOVERNMENT IN THE UNITED STATES HAS TAKEN A VERY STRONG STAND IN LITIGATION AND IN EMPLOYMENT DISCRIMINATION SORTS OF LITIGATION TO PROTECT PEOPLE’S RIGHTS OF FREE EXERCISE. IT’S A REALLY IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES APPROACH AND THE EUROPEAN, EVEN CANADIAN APPROACH, FOR EXAMPLE, TO WEARING THE HIJAB WHERE THE GOVERNMENTS THERE HAVE MADE EVERY EFFORT THEY CAN TO PREVENT WOMEN FROM WEARING A HIJAB. HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, THIS GOVERNMENT HAS SUED ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE’S RIGHTS TO FREE EXERCISE.
SO I STRONGLY DISAGREE. I FEEL IN THIS COUNTRY YOU SHOULD PRACTICE YOUR RELIGION, YOU SHOULD LET PEOPLE KNOW WE’RE A RELIGIOUS COUNTRY OF ALL DIFFERENT FAITHS, WE’RE COMFORTABLE WITH RELIGION. YOU SHOULD LET PEOPLE KNOW WHAT YOUR FAITH IS AND FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO TEXAS FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?
YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: MY QUESTION IS CONCERNING THIS ISSUE ABOUT THIS TERRORIST WATCH.
MY QUESTION IS THIS – IS THAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT THIS ALERT THING?

J.Z.: RIGHT. DON’T LISTEN TO YOURSELF. JUST ASK THE QUESTION.

Caller: OK. MY QUESTION IS, SO HOW DO WE KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT A PLOY BY THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION TO…

J.Z.: RIGHT. I GET YOUR POINT. I GET YOUR POINT. WHEN YOU’RE ASKING THE QUESTION, DON’T LISTEN TO THE TV BECAUSE THERE IS A BIT OF A DELAY.
BUT, DAN, LOOK. THIS CAME OUT PUBLIC. IT WASN’T LEAKED AS OTHERS WERE.
QUESTIONS ARE GOING TO BE RAISED AS TO WHY ARE THEY RELEASING THIS ONE.
THAT WAS ONE ISSUE RAISED RIGHT THERE. I HEARD ONE PERSON SUGGEST ON A RADIO CALL-IN SHOW, AND A REPUTABLE ONE, I MIGHT ADD, THAT THEY’RE JUST COVERING THEMSELVES IN CASE SOMETHING DOES OCCUR. THEY CAN SAY, SEE, WE KNEW ABOUT IT AND WE WERE TAKING STEPS. I MEAN, ANSWER HIS QUESTION, IF YOU WOULD.

Sutherland: YEAH. THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. IT’S A LEGITIMATE QUESTION.
PEOPLE SHOULD READ THE DOCUMENT. IT’S RELATIVELY SHORT. IT’S READABLE.
READ IT AND JUDGE ITS CREDIBILITY FOR YOURSELF. I THINK, WITH THE LONDON AND GLASGOW EVENTS AND – I MEAN, YOU JUST—I DON’T THINK THERE IS A LOT OF CONTROVERSY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FACT THAT THERE IS A THREAT.
IT’S NOT LIKE THIS IS BEING MADE UP. BUT
READ THE DOCUMENT FOR YOURSELF. SEE WHAT YOU THINK. THIS DOCUMENT, AS YOU READ IT, IT DESCRIBES HOW THEY PREPARED THE DOCUMENT, WHICH GETS TO THE CALLER’S QUESTION.

J.Z.: YOU’VE HAD DEALINGS WITH YOUR COLLEAGUES IN LONDON AND OTHER PLACES IN EUROPE. DO THEY UNDERSTAND THE PROFOUND DIFFERENCE THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE EXPERIENCE HERE AND THERE?

Sutherland: ABSOLUTELY. I JUST, ACTUALLY THIS AFTERNOON, HAD A MEETING WITH 10 BRITISH MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT WHO ARE HERE IN THE STATES, AND WE TALKED QUITE A BIT ABOUT THAT. AND THEY REALLY STRONGLY FELT THAT THE CONTEXT IN BRITAIN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE CONTEXT WE HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES. AND WE TOLD THEM THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF AMERICAN MUSLIMS WHO ARE VERY WILLING TO GO TO THE U.K. AND TO EUROPE TO TALK ABOUT THEIR EXPERIENCE, AND IT WAS A VERY INTERESTING OFFER TO THEM.

J.Z.: THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, DAN SUTHERLAND. AMD WE’LL HAVE YOU AGAIN ANOTHER TIME. THANK YOU. WHEN WE COME BACK, STATE DEPARTMENT SENIOR ADVISOR ON IRAQ, DAVID SATTERFIELD, AND YOUR CALLS. STAY TUNED.

WELCOME BACK TO “VIEWPOINT.” I’M JIM ZOGBY, AND MY NEXT GUEST IS AMBASSADOR DAVID SATTERFIELD, SENIOR ADVISOR AND COORDINATOR FOR IRAQ FOR SECRETARY OF STATE CONDOLEEZZA RICE. HE SERVED ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL AS DIRECTOR FOR NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON AND A REGULAR SHOW—GUEST, RATHER, ON THE SHOW. THANKS FOR JOINING US AGAIN, DAVID.
IT’S GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK. I WANTED TO TALK TO YOU, OBVIOUSLY, ABOUT THE PROGRESS REPORT ON IRAQ. BUT BEFORE WE GET INTO THAT, I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE AND ONE ISSUE IN THE ESTIMATE THAT OBVIOUSLY BECAME A HUGE QUESTION IN THE MEDIA, AND THAT IS AL QAEDA IN IRAQ. LET ME JUST PUT UP ON THE SCREEN A QUOTE FROM THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. AND IT IS,
SAYS, “WE ASSESS THAT AL QAEDA WILL PROBABLY SEEK TO LEVERAGE THE CONTACTS AND CAPABILITIES OF AL QAEDA IN IRAQ TO ENERGIZE THE BROADER SUNNI EXTREMIST COMMUNITY, RAISE RESOURCES AND RECRUIT AND INDOCTRINATE OPERATIVES.” THIS POINTS TO A CONCERN THAT MANY PEOPLE HAD BEFORE THE WAR AND HAVE BEEN RAISED SINCE THE WAR STARTED, AND THAT IS THAT THE RESENTMENT OF THE PRESENCE AND OCCUPATION IN THE COUNTRY, THE SPILLOVER OF THE FACT THAT YOU NOW HAVE A TRAINING GROUND IN IRAQ THAT IN SOME WAYS REPLACED WHAT AFGHANISTAN WAS, WHERE YOU’VE GOT HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE COMING IN, BEING TRAINED, GOING BACK OUT. YOU NOW HAVE AL QAEDA SPIN-OFFS IN LEBANON, NORTH AFRICA, EUROPE, OF FOLKS WHO WERE IN IRAQ AND NOW HAVE GONE BACK OUT AND A KIND OF ANGER THAT HAS SPREAD, AS THE REPORT SUGGESTS, ON THE ARAB STREET. COMMENT ON THAT. THAT’S OBVIOUSLY A DISTURBING ISSUE HERE.

Amb. David Satterfield, Sr. Advisor on Iraq: JIM, WE’RE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE GROWTH OF AL QAEDA IN IRAQ. WE’RE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABILITY OF AL QAEDA, IF LEFT UNCHECKED, IN THE PRESENCE, FOR INSTANCE, OF A PRECIPITANT U.S. WITHDRAWAL TO DEVELOP THE KIND OF CAPABILITIES INSIDE IRAQ THROUGH SAFE-HAVENING IN IRAQ TO PROJECT ITS TERROR, IT’S DEADLY FORCE, OUTSIDE, NOT JUST TO THE U.S. HOMELAND, BUT ALSO TO OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES IN THE REGION AND BEYOND. AND THE REPORT SPELLS OUT THAT THREAT, THAT DANGER. WE HEAR IT FROM OUR FRIENDS IN THE REGION.
THEY’RE CONCERNED ABOUT IT AS WELL. WE ARE DOING ALL WE CAN, WE AND OUR IRAQI ALLIES, WE AND OUR REGIONAL ALLIES, TO CONFRONT THIS THREAT OF AL QAEDA IN IRAQ AS WELL AS OUTSIDE IRAQ.

J.Z.: BUT ISN’T THERE A DANGER THAT WE’RE ALSO FUELING IT?

Satterfield: YOU KNOW, JIM, CAUGHT IN A BIND HERE. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT MOST IRAQIS WANT TO SEE FOREIGN FORCES GO. WE UNDERSTAND THAT. WE’D LIKE TO LEAVE, TOO. BUT THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT, AND I THINK MOST IRAQIS, WHEN THEY ARE ASKED, WILL SAY, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, THAT NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR COALITION FORCES, FOR U.S. FORCES TO DEPART. DO I THINK IF WE WERE TO LEAVE THAT AL QAEDA WOULD CEASE TO EXIST, WOULD CEASE TO DEVELOP A PRESENCE IN IRAQ?
ABSOLUTELY NOT. I BELIEVE AL QAEDA IS THERE FOR REASONS BEYOND THE PRESENCE OF THE UNITED STATES. THEY WANT TO ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC CALIPHATE IN ALL OF THE MIDDLE EAST.

J.Z.: TALK TO ME ABOUT THIS. I MEAN, LOOK, THE PRESIDENT, OBVIOUSLY, HE IS YOUR BOSS, AND SO I’M NOT GOING TO ASK YOU TO REFUTE WHAT HE SAYS. BUT IT SEEMS TO BE NOT HELPFUL TO THE DISCOURSE WHEN HE POINTS TO AL QAEDA IN IRAQ AND SAYS THESE ARE THE SAME PEOPLE WHO ATTACKED US ON 9/11.

Satterfield: BUT, YOU KNOW, JIM? THEY ARE. JIM, THEY’RE THE SAME MOVEMENT AND THEY’RE GROWING. THEY’RE THE SAME IDEOLOGY EXACTLY, AND THEIR GOALS ARE EXACTLY THE SAME.

J.Z.: LET ME TRY IT ANOTHER WAY. HE SAYS WE’RE FIGHTING THEM THERE SO WE DON’T HAVE TO FIGHT THEM HERE. YOU MADE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME POINT. BUT, YOU KNOW, HE SAYS IT PROSCRIPTIVELY, BUT TO ME IT ALMOST COMES OFF AS PREDICTIVE, THAT, IN OTHER WORDS, WE’RE IN A BIND. THEY WEREN’T THERE—THEY WEREN’T THERE BEFORE.
THEY ARE THERE NOW. AND HE’S RIGHT, IF WE LEAVE, THEY NOT ONLY MIGHT GROW THERE, BUT THEY ALSO MIGHT SPREAD BEYOND. I MEAN, A MORE HONEST ASSESSMENT WOULD BE THIS PROBLEM WASN’T THERE. IT IS THERE NOW, AND NOW WE’RE STUCK AND DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT. WOULDN’T THAT BE A FAIRER WAY OF PUTTING IT THAN THESE ARE THE SAME GUYS WHO DID IT?

Satterfield: WELL, JIM, I THINK A FAIR WAY TO STATE IS NOT THAT THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO ABOUT IT, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS WE AND OUR ALLIES CAN DO ABOUT IT AND ARE. AND THAT’S WHAT THE REPORT POINTS TO. THE N.I.E. NOTES THAT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND A BIG PART OF THAT IS REGIONAL MIDDLE EASTERN COOPERATION, AGAINST AL QAEDA HAS SUCCEEDED IN DEGRADING THE CAPABILITIES OF AL QAEDA AS AN EFFECTIVE FORCE. THEY ARE STILL A SERIOUS THREAT. WE DON’T UNDERSTATE THAT AT ALL. BUT TO SAY THAT NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE OR CAN BE DONE TO ADDRESS THAT THREAT IS SIMPLY WRONG. THINGS ARE BEING DONE.

J.Z.: THERE ARE THOSE WHO SUGGEST IN RESPONSE TO THIS, AND I’VE READ SOME OF THE EXPERTS WHO HAVE BEEN QUOTED SAYING THAT AL QAEDA IS NOW STRONGER THAN IT WAS IN PART BECAUSE OF IRAQ, AND THAT BECOMES A DISTURBING ISSUE.

Satterfield: THEY ARE NOT AS STRONG IN IRAQ AS THEY WERE A YEAR AGO. IN FACT, I WOULD ARGUE THEY’RE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE SIX MONTHS AGO. WE HAVE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT, MEANINGFUL DETERIORATION IN THEIR CAPABILITIES AND PRESENCE IN IRAQ. THEY ARE STILL A FORMIDABLE THREAT, BUT IT’S A THREAT THAT HAS BEEN DEGRADED. IT’S BEEN DEGRADED NOT JUST BECAUSE OF OUR EFFORTS AND BECAUSE OF EXTERNAL EFFORTS. IT’S ALSO BEEN DEGRADED BECAUSE IRAQIS THEMSELVES IN ANBAR AND INCREASINGLY ELSEWHERE—IN SALAH AD DIN PROVINCE, IN DIYALA PROVINCE, IN BAGHDAD ARE FED UP WITH THESE PEOPLE, AND THEY’RE MOVING AGAINST THEM.

J.Z.: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THAT BECAUSE THIS GETS US TO THE HEART OF THE IRAQ PROGRESS REPORT. WE’VE TAKEN A NEW APPROACH TO FIGHTING AL QAEDA. THE STORIES ARE THAT WE’RE NOW HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME OF THOSE WHO WERE INSURGENTS, ARMING AND PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THEM, AND THEY’VE TAKEN ON THE FIGHT AGAINST AL QAEDA AS A GROUP THAT IS AN INTRUDER INTO THEIR COUNTRY AND INTO THEIR POLITICS BY PROVOKING, AS THEY HAVE, THE SHIA IN THE COUNTRY. BUT SOME OF THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THAT. THEY SAY IT UNDERVALUES THEM. IT CERTAINLY UNDERVALUES THE ROLE OF THE IRAQI MILITARY, AND SOME SUGGEST IT CAN BE DANGEROUS IN THE LONG RUN BECAUSE WHAT, IN FACT, YOU’RE GETTING IS AN INDEPENDENT ARMED KURDISH MOVEMENT, AN INDEPENDENT AND COMPETING SERIES OF ARMED SHIA MOVEMENTS, AND NOW, WITH U.S. SUPPORT, AN ARMED SUNNI FORMER INSURGENCY, NOW ALLIED JUST IN THE FIGHT OF AL QAEDA. WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY’LL DO NEXT MONTH OR THE MONTH AFTER. DOESN’T THAT MAKE THE SITUATION MORE COMPLICATED AND WEAKEN THE ABILITY OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT TO BECOME AN ARMY AND GOVERNMENT FOR ALL OF IRAQ?

Satterfield: TWO POINTS, JIM. FIRST, WE’RE NOT ARMING ANY OF THESE ELEMENTS.
THEY’VE GOT PLENTY OF ARMS. WE’RE NOT PROVIDING MILITARY FACILITATION TO THEM.
BUT THE POINT ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT’S LOCK UP OR LINK-UP WITH THESE GROUPS, THAT’S AN IMPORTANT ONE. WE HAVE A COORDINATION CELL, AN ENGAGEMENT CELL, IN WHICH WE AND OUR IRAQI GOVERNMENT PARTNERS WORK JOINTLY ON HOW WE REACH OUT TO THESE GROUPS THAT YOU’VE CALLED FORMER INSURGENTS, HOW WE BRING THEM NOT JUST INTO THE FIGHT AGAINST AL QAEDA, BUT BRING THEM INTO THE NATIONAL STRUGGLE TO ESTABLISH AN IRAQI STATE. THAT’S SOMETHING THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IS VERY MUCH INVOLVED WITH. ARE THERE CONCERNS? YES THERE ARE. BUT THOSE CONCERNS ARE BEING ADDRESSED AS THE GOVERNMENT WORKS WITH US AND WORKS WITH THESE GROUPS TO HELP BRING THEM INTO THE NATIONAL LIGHT. AND THAT’S A VERY IMPORTANT STEP IF IT CAN BE CARRIED FORWARD IN A COMPREHENSIVE MANNER.

J.Z.: IF YOU WANT TO CALL AND JOIN THE CONVERSATION, IT’S 001-202-842-5056. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM THE U.S., IT’S 1-800-528-2090. WE’RE TALKING TO DAVID SATTERFIELD, AMBASSADOR SATTERFIELD. HE IS THE TOP ADVISOR ON IRAQ TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE. THE MID-TERM PROGRESS REPORT HAD 18 AREAS TO LOOK AT. EIGHT WERE GIVEN A SATISFACTORY PROGRESS, EIGHT WERE GIVEN A NO PROGRESS AND TWO WERE SORT OF MIXED. ANTHONY CORDESMAN, WHO’S DONE THIS SHOW A NUMBER OF TIMES, SORT OF SCOFFED AT IT AND SAID THERE WAS NO PROGRESS ON ANY FRONT AND IN PARTICULAR LOOKED AT A COUPLE OF THE POLITICAL AREAS, CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION, CREATING RECONCILIATION AND SAID, IN EFFECT, WHAT THE REPORT DID WAS KIND OF KICK THAT BALL DOWN THE LINE A BIT, AND WE’RE GIVING THEM PROGRESS FOR NOT ACTING NOW BUT NOT ACTING NEGATIVELY EITHER. I READ IT AND, FRANKLY, THE PROGRESS AREAS WERE A BIT FLIMSY. DOES THAT WORRY YOU? ARE WE’RE MAKING, MAYBE, TOO MUCH OUT OF THIS AND SETTING OURSELVES UP FOR FAILURE IN SEPTEMBER WHEN WE SIMPLY AREN’T GONNA BE ABLE TO GIVE PASSING GRADES AROUND?

Satterfield: WELL, JIM, WITH ALL RESPECT TO TONY CORDESMAN, WE DON’T BELIEVE THAT THE REPORT WHERE PROGRESS HAS GENUINELY BEEN MADE OR WHERE IT HASN’T BEEN MADE. AND THE CHAPEAU, THE INTRODUCTION TO THE REPORT SPOKE VERY TELLING, I THINK, TO THE ISSUE BEYOND THOSE 18 NARROW BENCHMARKS. IT TALKED ABOUT THE FACT THAT ON SECURITY, PROGRESS IN CERTAIN MEANINGFUL AREAS HAVE BEEN MADE.
BUT IT NOTED ON THE POLITICAL SIDE THAT A COMMON NATIONAL WILL, OR NATIONAL VISION, CONSENSUS ON HOW TO MOVE FORWARD AS A NATION, THAT THAT DID NOT ADEQUATELY EXIST. THAT’S THE FUNDAMENTAL MARKER OF PROGRESS APART FROM MILITARY ISSUES. IT CONCERNS US, AND IT CONCERNS THE PEOPLE OF IRAQ. I DON’T THINK WE PULLED IN THE PUNCHES IN THIS REPORT. I THINK IT WAS AN ACCURATE AND FRANK ASSESSMENT, AND IT WAS A DETAILED, NUANCED LOOK BOTH AT THE BENCHMARKS THAT CONGRESS SET TO US, AND BEYOND THOSE BENCHMARKS AT THE BIGGER PICTURE OF HOW IS IRAQ DOING? HOW ARE THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIPS DOING? THE ANSWER IS THEY’RE NOT DOING WELL ENOUGH IN TERMS OF COMING TOGETHER AND TRUMPING THEIR PARTICULARIST AGENDAS—ETHNIC, SECTARIAN, OR PERSONAL—WITH A NATIONAL AGENDA.

J.Z.: THAT LEADS ME TO TWO QUESTIONS. ONE IS, WE GET TO SEPTEMBER. AND WE HAVE TO MAKE A JUDGMENT. I GRANT YOU THAT THE JUDGMENT OF SAYING THIS HASN’T WORKED AND WE LEAVE IS GOING TO BE A DIFFICULT ONE AT BEST. BUT THERE’S ALSO GONNA BE THOSE WHO MAY MAKE THE JUDGMENT FOR YOU. AND IT’S THE POLITICS OF THE COUNTRY AS WE APPROACH AN ELECTION YEAR. WHAT DO YOU DO IF THE REPORT DOESN’T PROVIDE SATISFY EVIDENCE OF PROGRESS, THAT IT, SATISFACTORY ENOUGH TO CONTINUE BROAD PUBLIC SUPPORT, THE SUPPORT YOU NEED TO CONTINUE THIS?

Satterfield: YOU KNOW, JIM, A COUPLE THINGS ARE GONNA HAPPEN IN SEPTEMBER. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REPORT ISSUED BY SEPTEMBER 15. BUT AMBASSADOR CROCKER AND GENERAL PETRAEUS ARE GOING TO BRIEF. THEY’RE GONNA BRIEF THE CONGRESS, THEY’RE GONNA BRIEF THE PRESIDENT ON THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION. THEY’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT OPTIONS, THEY’RE GONNA TALK ABOUT POSSIBILITIES AND CONSEQUENCES OF DIFFERENT WAYS OF LOOKING AHEAD. AND THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE DECISIONS TO MAKE.
THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE VERY CLEAR, AND THIS CERTAINLY IS SUPPORTED BY GENERAL PETRAEUS AND BY AMBASSADOR CROCKER, THAT A PRECIPITANT WITHDRAWAL OF U.S. FORCES, OF THE U.S. PRESENCE IN IRAQ WOULD HAVE DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES, THAT SETTING A RIGID TIMEFRAME OR FORCE-LEVEL DEADLINE THROUGH LEGISLATION WOULD HAVE ENORMOUSLY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES ON IRAQIS AS WELL AS ON OUR INTERESTS.
NOW, WE KNOW THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT TO SEE OUR FORCES DECREASED. THEY WANT TO SEE THE CASUALTIES COME DOWN. SO DO WE. THEY WANT TO KNOW THERE IS A PLAN FOR SUCCESS IN IRAQ, THAT WE KNOW WHERE WE’RE GOING AND HOW WE’RE GOING TO ACHIEVE THAT GOAL AND THAT WE HAVE IRAQI PARTNERS TO DO IT. THOSE ARE THE SORT OF THINGS AMBASSADOR CROCKER AND GENERAL PETRAEUS ARE GOING TO BE SPEAKING TO AND THEY WILL DO SO IN AN ABSOLUTELY FRANK AND HONEST MANNER.

J.Z.: LET ME GO TO FLORIDA. CALLER, YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: YES, SIR. THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE, AMBASSADOR. MY QUESTION IS, SEEING HOW IF WE’RE GOING TO PULL OUT OF THERE EVENTUALLY, YOU GUYS WERE DISCUSSING THE FACT THAT THEY WILL FIGHT THE INSURGENTS. THEY WILL FIGHT THE TERRORISTS IF WE LEAVE BECAUSE OF THE POLITICS. THEY DON’T WANT THEM INTRUDING ON THEIR POLITICS.
SO WHY WOULD WE WANT TO STAY THERE IF THAT’S THE CASE?

Satterfield: WELL, WE BELIEVE THAT AN ENDURING U.S. PRESENCE THAT FACILITATES THE TRAINING OF IRAQI FORCES SO THAT IRAQ CAN BECOME SELF-SUSTAINING IN ITS OWN DEFENSE, THAT HELPS IRAQIS DEVELOP THEIR OWN BUDGET-EXECUTION CAPABILITIES SO THEY CAN BECOME ECONOMICALLY SELF-SUSTAINING, THAT HELPS CARRY ON A FIGHT WHICH IS IN THE UNITED STATES’ INTERESTS, THE INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY, IN CONTAINING AND PUSHING BACK AL QAEDA IN IRAQ JUST AS WE PUSHED AT AL QAEDA ELSEWHERE, THAT THESE ARE VERY IMPORTANT GOALS, AND THEY’RE GOALS WORTH SUSTAINING A PRESENCE FOR. WE NEED IRAQI PARTNERS FOR THESE GOALS.
WE’RE WORKING WITH THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIPS OF IRAQ, PLURAL, AS WELL AS WITH PRIME MINISTER MALIKI AND THE GOVERNMENT TO SEE THAT THOSE PARTNERS DO EXIST AND THAT THEY UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS FIGHT AS WELL AS WE UNDERSTAND IT.

J.Z.: MUQTADA AL-SADR. HE WAS DISMISSED EARLY ON BY US AS A SORT OF A CRANK—YOUNG SORT OF TOUGH WHO HAD A GANG ON THE STREET. BUT HE’S EMERGED AS A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE COUNTRY AND AT BEST A DIFFICULT ONE TO FIGURE OUT. IN THE GOVERNMENT, OUT OF THE GOVERNMENT, AND NOW SORT OF HEDGING BETWEEN THE TWO,
BUT NO DOUBT A POWERFUL FIGURE WHO CANNOT BE DISMISSED EASILY. HAVE WE MADE OUR PEACE WITH HIM? HAVE WE FIGURED OUT HOW TO WORK WITH HIM OR NOT?

Satterfield: YOU KNOW, JIM, IT’S NOT A QUESTION OF HAVE WE FIGURED OUT A WAY TO WORK WITH HIM. HAS HE FIGURED OUT A WAY TO WORK WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ?
THAT’S A VERY GOOD QUESTION. HE HAS SUFFERED SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT REVERSES OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS. HE PULLED HIS ELEMENTS OUT OF GOVERNMENT, OUT OF THE COUNCIL OF REPRESENTATIVES IN PROTEST TO PRIME MINISTER MALIKI’S MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT. HE PUT THEM BACK IN ABOUT 60 DAYS LATER HAVING ACHIEVED NOTHING.
HE DOES NOT HAVE THE VOTES TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT—DOESN’T HAVE THE VOTES, DOESN’T HAVE THE POSITION TO EVEN CHALLENGE THE GOVERNMENT. AND PRIME MINISTER MALIKI AND HIS SECURITY FORCES HAVE MOVED AGAINST THE JAYSH AL-MAHDI EVERYWHERE, INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS SAFE HAVEN OF—
J.Z.: AND THERE IS A RIVALRY BETWEEN TWO OF THE COMPONENT GROUPS THAT FORM THE GOVERNMENT. THE QUESTION IS IS THAT THAT’S NOT AN APPROACH TO A SOLUTION AS MUCH AS IT IS A RECIPE FOR FUTURE DISASTER.

Satterfield: NO. I DON’T THINK IT IS. I THINK IT IS AN APPROACH FOR A SOLUTION, AND HERE IS WHY. BECAUSE IT TELLS—
J.Z.: IS IT IMPORTANT TO DEFEAT HIM?

Satterfield: IT TELLS MUQTADA, “YOU DON’T HAVE A POLITICAL OPTION OF PULLING YOUR GUYS OUT AND TRYING TO BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. YOU DON’T HAVE THE STRENGTH TO DO IT.” IT TELLS HIM THAT AS AN ARMED GROUP, HIS MILITIA, WHEN IT ENGAGES IN VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS, WILL NOT BE OFF LIMITS, NOT JUST THE COALITION FORCES, BUT TO IRAQI FORCES, AND IT FORCES MUQTADA TO MAKE A CHOICE.
AND I THINK, JIM, THAT’S WHERE HE IS RIGHT NOW, HAVING TO MAKE THAT CHOICE.
VIOLENCE AND EXCLUSION OR ESCHEWING VIOLENCE AND PARTICIPATING IN A POLITICAL PROCESS. I THINK THAT’S A GOOD THING.

J.Z.: LET ME GO TO INDIANA FOR ONE LAST CALL. CALLER?

Caller: YES. WITH ALL THAT’S GOING ON IN AMERICA WITH THE DEMOCRATS GETTING MORE MONEY FOR THE ELECTIONS, WITH THE CALLS BY THE DEMOCRATS TO MOVE OUT OF IRAQ AND INSTILL A DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ, YET THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SPEAKING TO OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS HERE, WE DON’T SEEM TO HAVE A DEMOCRACY GOING ON BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN AMERICA FAVOR US TO PULL OUT OF THIS WAR. AND I DON’T SEE ANY DEMOCRACY HAPPENING TO, YOU KNOW, INSTILL THAT.

J.Z.: THANKS FOR THE CALL. THANKS FOR THE CALL.

Satterfield: WE BELIEVE MOST AMERICANS, AS I SAID, WANT TO KNOW THAT THERE IS A PLAN FOR VICTORY, FOR SUCCESS. I THINK MOST AMERICANS AND THE BIPARTISAN BASIS UNDERSTAND THE CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILURE IN IRAQ FOR THE UNITED STATES, BUT THEY WANT TO KNOW THERE IS A WAY AHEAD. THAT IS WHAT THE PRESIDENT’S JANUARY 10 STRATEGY WAS INTENDED TO BUILD. IT IS GOING TO BE THE SUBJECT OF THE ASSESSMENT PROVIDED BY GENERAL PETRAEUS AND AMBASSADOR CROCKER AND OF DECISIONS MADE BY THE PRESIDENT AT THAT TIME—THE WAY AHEAD THAT PROTECTS AND ADVANCES U.S. INTERESTS.
WE DON’T BELIEVE THAT WAY AHEAD IS BY PRECIPITANT WITHDRAWAL.

J.Z.: I’D LIKE YOU BACK IN SEPTEMBER WHEN THE FINAL REPORT IS OUT.

Satterfield: HAPPY TO SEE YOU THEN.

J.Z.: THANK YOU. I’LL SEE YOU THEN, DAVID. THANK YOU.

Satterfield: THANK YOU, JIM.

J.Z.: UP NEXT, TERRORISM EXPERT BRUCE HOFFMAN AND YOUR CALLS.
STAY WITH US. THANKS.
I AM JIM ZOGBY, AND YOU’RE WATCHING “VIEWPOINT.” MY NEXT GUEST IS DR. BRUCE HOFFMAN. HE’S BEEN STUDYING TERRORISM AND INSURGENCY FOR NEARLY 30 YEARS.
HE IS PROFESSOR OF SECURITY STUDIES AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY AND A SENIOR SCHOLAR AT THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER. HE SERVED AS SENIOR ADVISOR ON COUNTERTERRORISM IN THE OFFICE ON NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS IN BAGHDAD AND IS AUTHOR OF THE BOOK “INSIDE TERRORISM.” THANKS FOR JOINING US.

Bruce Hoffman, Counterterrorism Scholar: YOUR WELCOME. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

J.Z.: I WANT TO TALK NOT ABOUT THE BOOK, ALTHOUGH SOME DAY I WANT TO GET YOU BACK AND TALK ABOUT YOUR TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS LAST YEAR, WHICH WAS, I THOUGHT, JUST FASCINATING IN TERMS OF THE UNDERSTANDING OF AL QAEDA, THE MOVEMENT. I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.
WE’LL GET INTO THE DETAILS OF SOME ASPECTS OF IT IN A MINUTE. BUT I WANT TO START WITH THE QUOTE FROM PRESIDENT BUSH.
LET’S LISTEN TO THE PRESIDENT AS HE TALKED ABOUT IT.

President Bush: AL QAEDA IS—WOULD HAVE BEEN A HECK OF A LOT STRONGER TODAY HAD WE NOT STAYED ON THE OFFENSE. AND IT’S IN THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES TO NOT ONLY DEFEAT THEM OVERSEAS SO WE DON’T HAVE TO FACE THEM HERE, BUT ALSO TO SPREAD AN IDEOLOGY THAT WILL DEFEAT THEIR IDEOLOGY EVERY TIME, AND THAT’S THE IDEOLOGY BASED UPON LIBERTY.

J.Z.: I WANT TO PULL THAT QUOTE APART, ACTUALLY, IN THREE DIFFERENT PARTS AND ASK YOU ABOUT ALL THREE BECAUSE THEY’RE IN THE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE IN DIFFERENT WAYS, AND I WANT TO GET YOUR COMMENT ON THEM. ONE IS “THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN A HECK OF A LOT STRONGER TODAY HAD WE NOT STAYED ON THE OFFENSIVE.”
YOU’VE WRITTEN RECENTLY THAT THEY ARE A LOT STRONGER, AND THEY’RE DOING A WHOLE LOT BETTER THAN PEOPLE ARE GIVING THEM CREDIT FOR—THAT THEY WERE WRITTEN OFF A COUPLE YEARS AGO, BUT THEY’VE BOUNDED BACK STRONGLY. DO YOU TAKE ISSUE WITH THE PRESIDENT’S COMMENTS?

Hoffman: WELL, LET ME JUST—I ACTUALLY WROTE THAT THEY HAD REGROUPED AND REORGANIZED AND THEY WERE NOW ON THE MARCH AND NOT ON THE RUN, AS THE PRESIDENT HAD SAID LAST OCTOBER. NO, I DON’T THINK THEY’RE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE ON 9/11. I THINK THEY’RE A SHADOW OF THEMSELVES, BUT, AND I THINK THE PRESIDENT IS RIGHT, THAT HAD WE NOT GONE TO WAR AGAINST THEM, THEY WOULD STILL BE THAT MUCH STRONGER. THE PROBLEM IS, I THINK, THAT IN THE PAST TWO OR THREE YEARS, WE’VE ALLOWED THEM TO REGROUP OFTEN RIGHT UNDER OUR NOSES ACROSS THE BORDER FROM AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN. THEY’RE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MARSHALING THEIR RESOURCES, HUSBANDING THEIR STRENGTH, MUCH AS THEY DID BEFORE 9/11, TO TRY TO LAUNCH ATTACKS ON A GLOBAL CANVAS.

J.Z.: THE PRESIDENT TALKS ABOUT FIGHTING THEM THERE SO WE DON’T FIGHT THEM HERE.
AND SPECIFICALLY, THAT’S BEEN USED IN REFERENCE TO IRAQ. ARE WE BETTER OFF VIS-A-VIS AL QAEDA FOR HAVING GONE INTO IRAQ, OR HAVE WE SIMPLY HELPED THE MOVEMENT METASTASIZE INTO SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAN IT WAS BEFORE?

Hoffman: YOU KNOW, IN THIS RESPECT I THINK PERHAPS EVEN MY OPINION ISN’T AS IMPORTANT AS THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE THAT PRECEDED THE ONE THAT RELEASED ONLY A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, AND THAT WAS ONE THAT WAS RELEASED ABOUT 14 MONTHS AGO. AND AS YOU MAY RECALL, LAST SEPTEMBER THE KEY JUDGMENTS WERE MADE PUBLIC AND INDEED THAT N.I.E. SAID VERY CLEARLY THAT WE’RE MORE VULNERABLE BECAUSE OF IRAQ, THAT IRAQ HAS SERVED AS THIS ENORMOUS FULMINATE, THAT IT SUCCEEDED IN RADICALIZING LARGE PORTIONS OF POPULATIONS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, AND THAT WE LIVE IN A MORE HOSTILE WORLD BECAUSE OF IRAQ. SO THIS IS WHAT THE N.I.E. LAST YEAR HAD STATED.

J.Z.: THE CONVERSATION I HAD WITH AMBASSADOR SATTERFIELD RIGHT BEFORE, THOUGH, WE TALKED ABOUT THE BIND THAT WE’RE IN ALMOST, I MEAN, IN THE SENSE THAT IT DOES EMBOLDEN THEM, THEIR SUPPORTERS AROUND THE WORLD. IT DOES ANGER THEM. IT DOES INCITE THEM, AS THE INTELLIGENCE REPORT SAYS IN ONE OF ITS FINDINGS—OUR PRESENCE IN IRAQ IS ACTUALLY INCITING PEOPLE, AND IT’S BECOME A NEW TRAINING GROUND. BUT THE QUESTION IS, IF WE STAY, THIS PROBLEM SEEMS TO BECOME EXACERBATED, BUT IF WE LEAVE, IN FACT, IT DOES BECOME A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION TO PREDICT. WE’RE KIND OF IN A BIND HERE, AREN’T WE?

Hoffman: WELL, WE ARE IN A BIND, NOT LEAST BECAUSE THERE WAS NO AL QAEDA IN IRAQ BEFORE WE INVITED IRAQ. THIS IS A RECENT DEVELOPMENT, AND UNFORTUNATELY THEY’VE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF WHAT THEY’VE PORTRAYED AS THE OCCUPATION. AND IT’S WHAT THEY’VE PORTRAYED AS THE PUPPET GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES. AND, INDEED, WHAT THEY’VE CHAMPIONED AGAINST IS WHAT THEY SEE DEMOCRACY AS ANATHEMA TO, AT LEAST, THEIR TENETS OF ISLAM. SO, OUR PRESENCE, INDEED, AND WHAT WE’VE TRIED TO ESTABLISH IN IRAQ HAS BEEN A RED FLAG FOR AL QAEDA IN IRAQ AND IN PART ACCOUNTS FOR ITS EXISTENCE.

J.Z.: AND IF WE LEFT, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN?

Hoffman: WELL, WHEN AL QAEDA IN IRAQ FIRST BEGAN, IT WAS ABOUT 90% FOREIGNERS AND 10% IRAQIS. SO ONE COULD HAVE THEN SAID IN 2004, 2005, THERE WAS A LARGE DANGER OF THESE LARGE NUMBER OF FOREIGNERS, MUCH LIKE THE AFGHANIS LEFT AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE FIGHTING AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION IN 1989, THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE FOLLOWED US. TODAY, THOUGH, WE KNOW THAT AL QAEDA IN IRAQ IS ABOUT 90% IRAQIS, DOMESTIC JIHADISTS, AS IT WERE, AND ONLY 10% FOREIGN FIGHTERS. SO I THINK THAT FOR THEM, UNFORTUNATELY, GIVEN THE PAR-LESS CONDITION OF IRAQ, THERE’S PROBABLY MORE THAN ENOUGH FIGHTING TO CONSUME THEM FOR YEARS TO COME AND THAT I’M NOT—I’M SUSPICIOUS THAT THEY WILL FOLLOW US ELSEWHERE.

J.Z.: ONE OF THE STORIES TODAY OF THE U.S. MILITARY ANNOUNCING YESTERDAY THAT THE CAPTURED—NOT THE CAPTURED, BUT THE CHARACTER OMAR AL-BAGHDADI IS NOT A PERSON AT ALL, BUT A FICTION. AND THEY WERE SPECULATING THAT THE REASON FOR THAT WAS TO SEND A MESSAGE THAT IT REALLY WAS AN IRAQI MOVEMENT. DOES THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE? IS THAT THE KIND OF, SORT OF, COUNTERINSURGENCY WORK THAT ACTUALLY MAKES A DIFFERENCE HERE, OR DOESN’T IT MATTER TO PEOPLE ON THE GROUND?

Hoffman: WELL, I THINK ON THE ONE HAND YOU CAN SAY THAT IT OBVIOUSLY DIDN’T MATTER MUCH TO THE OVERWHELMING NUMBERS OF IRAQIS WHO GRAVITATED TOWARDS AL QAEDA IN IRAQ AND BELIEVED THEY WERE THE MOST EFFECTIVE IN EITHER DEFENDING THE SUNNIS AND IN STRIKING AT THE SHIA AND ALSO AT PUSHING THE UNITED STATES, OR ATTEMPTING TO PUSH THE UNITED STATES, OUT OF IRAQ. I THINK, THOUGH, IN THE BROADER PICTURE AMONGST THE HEARTS AND MINDS ISSUE IN THE POPULATION, IT LAYS BARE HOW AL QAEDA IN MANY INSTANCES HAS DELIBERATELY SOUGHT TO CO-OPT OR TO HIJACK OFTEN LEGITIMATE LOCAL GRIEVANCES AND KNIT THEM INTO AL QAEDA’S WORLDWIDE SCHEME. AND, YEAH, I THINK THIS IS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE.

J.Z.: THE PRESIDENT’S FINAL POINT. “DEFEAT THEIR IDEOLOGY WITH ONE BASED ON LIBERTY.” DO BE COLLOQUIAL, IS THAT THE TICKET?

Hoffman: WELL, IT’S THE TICKET ONLY IF THAT’S WHAT THE PEOPLE WE’RE TRYING TO APPEAL TO WANT. I MEAN—
J.Z.: I’VE READ YOUR STUFF. TO BE HONEST, I DON’T FIND THE ISSUE OF LIBERTY OR DEMOCRACY ANYPLACE IN TI. THE GRIEVANCES SEEM TO BE ELSEWHERE.

Hoffman: WELL, I’D SAY IF YOU REDUCE IT TO A BUMPER STICKER, IT’S PROBABLY JUSTICE MORE THAN LIBERTY THAT PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT, BUT I—
J.Z.: DO WE RUN A DANGER IF WE FOCUS ON LIBERTY AS THE ISSUE—THAT THEY FIGHT US BECAUSE THEY HATE LIBERTY? IT MAY BE GOOD FOR US, IT MAY BE GOOD FOR PUBLIC CONSUMPTION HERE, BUT DOES IT MAKE SENSE?

Hoffman: WELL, IT MAY BE AN OVERSIMPLIFICATION, BUT IT ALSO MAY BE COMPLETELY MISREADING EXACTLY THE AUDIENCE WE NEED TO GET ON OUR SIDE. AND IF WE’RE NOT COMMUNICATING WITH THEM AND UNDERSTANDING WHAT THEY WANT, THEN HOW SUCCESSFUL CAN WE BE IN ADDRESSING THEIR GRIEVANCES AND NEEDS?

J.Z.: LET’S GET FOLKS OUT THERE INTO THE CONVERSATION. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM OVERSEAS, IT’S 001-202-842-5056. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM HERE IN THE U.S., IT’S 1-800-528-2090. THE REPORT TALKS ABOUT PAKISTAN AND THE TRIBAL AREAS IN THE NORTH, AND WE’VE HAD A NUMBER OF GUESTS ON IN THE PAST BOTH FROM THE AFGHAN SIDE AND THE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT SIDE AND A BIG DISPUTE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT AL QAEDA IS ACTUALLY IN THAT PLACE AND IS ACTUALLY RECRUITING, TRAINING, AND SUBVERTING AFGHANISTAN AND FARMING THEIR MOVEMENT OUT BEYOND. HAS THE PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT, IN YOUR ESTIMATE, DONE ALL THAT IT HAS PROMISED TO DO TO DEAL WITH THIS PROBLEM, OR IS THE PROBLEM LARGER THAN THAT?

Hoffman: WELL, I THINK THE PROBLEM THAT WE SEE IS THAT AL QAEDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO FIND AND THEN DEVELOP A SAFE HAVEN IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN AND IN OTHER PARTS OF THE FEDERALLY-ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS. SO CLEARLY PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF’S ASSURANCES WHEN HE VISITED WASHINGTON LAST SEPTEMBER THAT THE TREATY THAT HE HAD ENGINEERED WITH THE TRIBAL CHIEFS WOULD ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WAR ON AL QAEDA, WOULD LIMIT AL QAEDA. OBVIOUSLY THAT HASN’T WORKED.

J.Z.: AND THERE ARE THOSE IN CONGRESS WHO ARE ACTUALLY SAYING MAYBE WE SHOULD CUT HIM OFF. I MEAN, HOW DOES ONE DEAL WITH MUSHARRAF? I MEAN, IS HE—QUESTION: IS HE AN ALLY OR NOT, AND IF NOT, WHAT CAN BE DONE TO CHANGE THE SITUATION?
CERTAINLY WE’RE NOT GOING TO SEE U.S. TROOPS MARCHING INTO NORTHERN PAKISTAN.

Hoffman: NO. I THINK THAT’S PART OF THE PROBLEM, CERTAINLY, THE EXTENSION OF U.S. MILITARY MIGHT IN VARIOUS CORNERS OF THE WORLD HAS ACTUALLY EXACERBATED AND BEEN A FULMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE SENTIMENT. WE’RE ACTUALLY TRYING BOTH TO DAMP DOWN, AND IT’S BREATHED NEW LIFE INTO THE ENEMIES WE’RE TRYING TO DEFEAT.
I THINK PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF IS WITHOUT ANY DOUBT AN ALLY, BUT I THINK HE’S AN ALLY THAT LEADS A VERY COMPLEX AND OFTEN VERY FRACTURED STATE, ONE THAT IS NOT ENTIRELY STABLE AND HAS A NUMBER OF CENTRIFUGAL FORCES. AND OF COURSE, I THINK COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF AID, COMPLETELY DISENGAGING FROM PAKISTAN WOULD BE AN ENORMOUS MISTAKE. WE WOULD LOSE WHATEVER INFLUENCE THAT WE HAVE, BUT ALSO WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR ARSENAL MAKES IT A VERY UNIQUE ALLY IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM AND ALSO ONE WHERE IT’S VERY IMPORTANT THAT STABILITY IS PRESERVED.

J.Z.: A NUMBER OF DEMOCRATS ARE SHIFTING GEARS NOW IN HOW THEY’RE LOOKING AT IRAQ, SAYING THAT WE SHOULD REMOVE FORCES FROM COMBAT, BUT RETAIN A PRESENCE SUFFICIENT TO FIGHT THE TERRORIST MOVEMENT, AL QAEDA, AND MOVE FORCES TO AFGHANISTAN TO FINISH THE JOB THERE. DOES THAT MAKE SENSE TO YOU?

Hoffman: WELL, CERTAINLY MOVING THE FORCES TO AFGHANISTAN TO DEFEAT AL QAEDA I THINK HAS TO BE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY BECAUSE AS I SAID EARLIER, AL QAEDA OPERATES ON A GLOBAL CANVAS. THIS IS REALLY WHEN THE PRESIDENT TALKS ABOUT FIGHTING THEM THERE SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO FIGHT THEM HERE. THAT’S VERY MUCH THE CASE, I THINK, WITH AL QAEDA—LESS SO IN IRAQ. I THINK IRAQ IS THE SCENE OF A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT—A CONSTELLATION OF FORCES WARRING WITH ONE ANOTHER. IT’S A CIVIL WAR, AN INTERNECINE ENVIRONMENT. IT’S A COMPLEX PROBLEM THAT THE UNITED STATES CANNOT SOLVE. WE’VE TRIED TO SOLVE IT FOR 4 YEARS.

J.Z.: ONE LAST QUESTION BEFORE WE START TO GET TO CALLERS, AND THAT IS,
THIS INTELLIGENCE REPORT ITSELF, WHY DID IT COME OUT NOW? OTHERS HAVE BEEN LEAKED.

Hoffman: RIGHT.

J.Z.: AND THIS ONE THEY NOT ONLY RELEASED, BUT THEY RELEASED WITH SOME FANFARE.

Hoffman: WELL, FIRST THING I THINK IS IT’S ENORMOUSLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT TAKES THE TEMPERATURE OF WHERE THE WAR ON TERRORISM IS, AND I THINK EXACTLY IS—DID NOT OCCUR BEFORE 9/11. IT VERY CLEARLY POINTS TO THE PRESSURE POINTS, THE DANGER POINTS, THE DANGER SPOTS, AS IT WERE, THAT WE NEED TO BE ALERT TO. I THINK THE REASON IT CAME OUT NOW IS VARIEGATED. FIRSTLY, THERE WAS THE PLOT THAT WAS UNCOVERED 11 MONTHS AGO TO SIMULTANEOUSLY BOMB 10 AMERICAN AIRLINERS WHILE EN ROUTE FROM UNITED KINGDOM TO THE U.S. THIS LINKED BACK TO AL QAEDA ELEMENTS IN PAKISTAN. THE FACT THAT AL QAEDA-CENTRAL HAD RECONSTITUTED AND WAS DIRECTING INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST INCIDENTS ON A SCALE EVEN BEFORE—ON A SCALE EVEN LIKE 9/11 WAS VERY ALARMING. THEN, OF COURSE, LAST NOVEMBER YOU HAD DAME ELIZA MANNINGHAM-BULLER WHO WAS THE FORMER-–THEN, SHE WAS STILL THE DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MI-5, THE SECURITY SERVICE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM—SHE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS RETIRED—MADE A VERY CANDID AND BLUNT SPEECH WHERE SHE TALKED ABOUT 30 PLOTS THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM IN RECENT YEARS THAT ALL LINKED BACK TO AL QAEDA ELEMENTS IN PAKISTAN. IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE ANY LONGER TO DENY THAT AL QAEDA HAD REGROUPED AND ORGANIZED.

J.Z.: AND SO THE REPORT CAME OUT TO VALIDATE THAT? IS THERE A DANGER OF CAUSING ALARM?

Hoffman: NO. I THINK IT’S VERY IMPORTANT. IT PUTS—I MEAN, FIRSTLY, TERRORISM IS AN ENORMOUSLY DYNAMIC AND EVOLUTIONARY PHENOMENA. IT HAS TO BE OR, THE TERRORISTS CAN’T SUCCEED. I MEAN, THEY HAVE TO CHANGE. BUT THEREFORE, IF TERRORISM IS CONSTANTLY CHANGING AND EVOLVING, SO MUST OUR ASSESSMENTS, SO MUST OUR THINKING. AND I THINK VERY COMMENDABLY, THIS N.I.E. ALMOST DOES A 180-DEGREE TURN FROM WHAT WE WERE SAYING THE FALL THAT AL QAEDA WAS ON THE RUN.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO CALIFORNIA FOR A CALL. CALLER, YOUR QUESTION?

Caller: HELLO, MR. ZOGBY.

J.Z.: HI, HOW ARE YOU?

Caller: I HAVE THIS QUESTION ABOUT THIS REPORT WITH THE CONSIDERED-TERRORISM THREAT FROM HEZBOLLAH, VERY HIGHER THAN AL QAEDA IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS. AND THEN CONSIDERING HEZBOLLAH BEING A PART OF THE LEBANON GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION AND THEY HAVE NEVER GONE AGAINST CIVILIAN TARGETS, HOW COULD THEY COME UP WITH THIS ASSESSMENT?

J.Z.: THANK YOU. YOUR RESPONSE?

Hoffman: WELL, I THINK THAT THIS IS A REFLECTION, FIRSTLY, OF THE STATEMENT THAT THE THEN-DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE RICHARD ARMITAGE MADE IN 2001 THAT HEZBOLLAH WAS IN FACT THE A-TEAM OF TERRORISTS, AND THAT ALL OTHER TERRORISTS, INCLUDING AL QAEDA, LACKED THEIR PROFESSIONALISM. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE FACT THAT HEZBOLLAH IS INDEED, AS THE CALLER SUGGESTED, A BONA FIDE POLITICAL PARTY IN THE LEBANESE POLITY, THAT IT ALSO PROVIDES SOCIAL WELFARE ACTIVITIES, BUT IT STILL HAS AN ARMED WING, THAT AT LEAST THIS ASSESSMENT, I’M ASSUMING, BELIEVES HAS THE CAPABILITY OF OPERATE GLOBALLY AND THAT IS LINKED OR TIED IN SOME WAY TO IRAN.
AND I SUPPOSE THIS SHEDS LIGHT ON THE FACT THAT, SHOULD THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN—RELATIONS DETERIORATE BETWEEN THE TWO, THAT HEZBOLLAH POSES A SERIOUS THREAT.

J.Z.: TALKING ABOUT THE DOMESTIC COMPONENT OF THE REPORT, THEY POINT TO HEZBOLLAH, THEY POINT TO INTERNET ACTIVITY, THEY POINT TO AL QAEDA ATTEMPTING TO PLACE PEOPLE. BUT THERE ARE NO SPECIFICS. HOW—THE REPORT DOES SAY WE’RE NOT EUROPE, BUT HOW GREAT DO YOU THINK THE DANGER IS THAT THERE ARE, IN FACT, SLEEPER CELLS, AS IT WERE, HERE? I TALKED WITH DAN SUTHERLAND, OUR FIRST GUEST, ABOUT THE VARIOUS AND ASSORTED ARRESTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED. MOST OF THEM HAVE NOT REALLY HELD UP AS QUITE SERIOUS. I MEAN, THE PAINTBALL KIDS, THE LACKAWANNA KIDS, THIS, WHAT DO YOU CALL IT, THE MIAMI STORY AND THE J.F.K. STORY. I MEAN,
YOU PUT THEM ALL TOGETHER AND YOU REALLY DON’T GET A SERIOUS THREAT. THE REPORT DOESN’T SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS, BUT IS THERE A PRESENCE, DO YOU THINK, TO BE WORRIED ABOUT?

Hoffman: WELL, I’M SURE THERE IS SOME FORM OF PRESENCE. I DON’T THINK AL QAEDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO BUILD THE INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE UNITED STATES THAT IT HAS IN OTHER COUNTRIES, FOR INSTANCE, IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. THE BRITISH AUTHORITIES KNEW BY THE END OF THE 1990’S THAT SOME 3,000 BRITISH MUSLIMS HAD LEFT THE UNITED KINGDOM TO TRAIN IN AL QAEDA CAMPS AND HAD RETURNED TO THE UNITED KINGDOM. THERE IS NOWHERE—I THINK THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS THAT MAY HAVE TRAINED UNDER AL QAEDA’S AEGIS IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGH DOUBLE-FIGURES, BUT MAYBE EVEN THAT’S AN EXAGGERATION. WE’VE SEEN SOME OF THEM, TOO, THE LACKAWANNA 6 DID TRAIN IN AL QAEDA CAMPS, BUT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THEIR BRITISH COUNTERPARTS, THEY DID NOT HAVE THE BURNING DESIRE FOR MARTYRDOM, FOR SUICIDE TERRORIST OPERATIONS THAT WE’VE SEEN ELSEWHERE. THEY REALIZED THEY WERE IN OVER THEIR HEAD—VERY DIFFERENT, I THINK, LEVEL OF RADICALIZATION AND COMMITMENT. BUT, SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS, I DON’T THINK AL QAEDA HAS THE INFRASTRUCTURE YET—I THINK THEY’D LIKE TO DEVELOP IT—BUT YET, IN THE UNITED STATES THAT THEY HAVE ELSEWHERE.

J.Z.: QUICK CALL FROM NEW MEXICO, REAL QUICK. CALLER? HI, YEAH. QUICK.

Caller: HELLO, MR. ZOGBY.

J.Z. YES, HI.

Caller: MY QUESTION IS, FROM THE BOILING POINT IN IRAQ, WHICH SEEMS TO BE RISING, WOULDN’T IT BE TO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA’S ADVANTAGE IF WE HELPED-

J.Z.: WE’RE GONNA HAVE TO LEAVE. I’M SORRY. WE’RE OUT OF TIME.
WE HAD A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE BEGINNING, AND I’M SORRY, WE’RE OUT OF TIME.
I WANT TO HAVE YOU COME BACK AND TALK ABOUT AL QAEDA AS A STRUCTURED MOVEMENT. YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THAT IS REAL INTERESTING. THANK YOU. THAT’S ALL WE HAVE TIME FOR RIGHT NOW. WE ARE GOING TO LEAVE AND SEE YOU NEXT WEEK ON “VIEWPOINT.”