Dr. James Zogby

Dr Zogby

Viewpoint Episode and Transcript: 06/28/07

Posted on Friday July 6, 2007

James Zogby: I’M JIM ZOGBY, AND WELCOME TO “VIEWPOINT.” ON TUESDAY
THE C.I.A. RELEASED HUNDREDS OF PREVIOUSLY CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS KNOWN INSIDE THE AGENCY AS THE FAMILY JEWELS. WE’RE GONNA DISCUSS THEM AND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THEM WITH A FORMER C.I.A. ANALYST. AND THEN WE’LL TALK TO THE CO-AUTHOR OF A NEW STRATEGY REPORT ON HOW THE U.S. CAN RECLAIM STABILITY IN IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST. BUT FIRST WE’RE GONNA TALK TO BRUCE RIEDEL. BRUCE IS A FORMER MIDDLE EAST EXPERT FOR THE C.I.A. HAVING RETIRED LAST YEAR AFTER
A 30-YEAR CAREER WITH THE AGENCY. HE SERVED AS SENIOR ADVISOR ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL UNDER THREE PRESIDENTS. HE SERVED THE PENTAGON AS DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR DEFENSE OF NEAR
EAST AND SOUTH ASIA, AND IS SENIOR ADVISOR TO NATO. HE WAS A MEMBER OF PRESIDENT CLINTON’S PEACE TEAM AT CAMP DAVID, WYE RIVER AND SHEPHERDSTOWN SUMMITS. CURRENTLY HE IS A SENIOR FELLOW WITH THE SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION AND AUTHOR OF A RECENT PIECE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON AL QAEDA AND HOW IT IS, IN FACT, EXPANDING, NOT SHRINKING. I ACTUALLY WANT TO START THERE IF WE CAN BECAUSE I’VE BEEN NOTICING IN THE VARIOUS PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES WHEN THE QUESTION IS ASKED, “ARE WE SAFER THAN WE ARE NOW?” IT’S EITHER BECOME A RULE OF THUMB FOR SOME, OR A KIND OF A CALCULATED POLITICAL STATEMENT BY OTHERS AFRAID OF BEING CALLED WEAK TO SAY, “YES, WE ARE.” AND THOSE WHO MAKE THE SECOND JUDGMENT, THE CALCULATED ONE, SAY, “BUT WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS.” YOUR ARGUMENT BEGINS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD: WE’RE NOT.

Bruce Riedel, Saban Center for Middle East Policy: THAT’S RIGHT. I THINK AL QAEDA TODAY IS MORE DEADLY THAN IT WAS IN SEPTEMBER 2001. I THINK IT’S VERY IRONIC. I THINK EVERY AMERICAN ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2001, WHETHER IT WAS CHRISTIAN, MUSLIM, JEWISH, WHATEVER ETHNIC GROUP, ALL EXPECTED THIS PRESIDENT TO DO ONE THING—GO RELENTLESSLY AFTER THE PEOPLE WHO’D CARRIED OUT THIS ACT OF MASS MURDER. SIX YEARS LATER OSAMA BIN LADEN, AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, MULLAH OMAR ARE STILL FREE. WORSE THAN THAT, THEY’RE STILL PLOTTING FURTHER ATTACKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, AND THEY’RE LEADING THE INSURGENCIES IN AFGHANISTAN AND IN IRAQ WHICH EVERY DAY TAKE A TERRIBLE TOLL IN HUMAN LIVES.-

J.Z.: I WANT TO TALK ABOUT BOTH OF THOSE TWO MAJOR THEATERS.
YOU ACTUALLY HAVE A SECTION IN THE ARTICLE—YOU SAY THEY
TRADED ONE FOR TWO. BUT I WANT TO TALK ABOUT FIRST THE AFGHANISTAN ARENA BECAUSE IT’S ACTUALLY MORE THAN AFGHANISTAN, IT’S AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN.

Riedel: RIGHT.

J.Z.: AND WE’VE HAD A NUMBER OF ACTUALLY INTERESTING DISCUSSIONS
BETWEEN PAKISTANIS AND AFGHANIS—AFGHANIS BLAMING THE PAKISTANIS; PAKISTANIS BLAMING AFGHANISTAN SAYING THEY’RE NOT DOING ENOUGH, AND WE’RE THE RECIPIENTS OF THEIR PROBLEM. THE AFGHANIS SAYING WE CAN’T BECAUSE THE PAKISTANIS ARE STILL INVOLVED IN SUPPORTING THESE ELEMENTS. CAN YOU REFEREE THAT. IS THE FAULT ON ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER? WHERE IS AL QAEDA AND THE TALIBAN NOW?

Riedel: I DON’T THINK THERE’S ANY DOUBT THAT PAKISTAN HAS TURNED A
BENIGN EYE TOWARDS THE RESURGENCE OF THE TALIBAN. IMMEDIATELY AFTER SEPTEMBER 11, YES, THEY WITHDREW THEIR SUPPORT VERY
DRAMATICALLY, AND THAT KILLED THE TALIBAN AS A MILITARY FORCE.
BUT STARTING IN 2003, 2004, THEY BEGAN TO ALLOW THE TALIBAN TO
REBUILD ON THE PAKISTANI SIDE OF THE BORDER, ESPECIALLY IN
BALUKISTAN. IN THAT ENVIRONMENT, AL QAEDA THRIVED BECAUSE WHILE PAKISTAN’S INTELLIGENCE SERVICE WENT AFTER SOME OF THE LOWER-HANGING FRUIT IN AL QAEDA, THEY DID NOTHING TO THE SENIOR LEADERSHIP. SO I THINK THE AFGHANS HAVE IT GENERALLY RIGHT
THAT PAKISTAN HAS ALLOWED THE TALIBAN TO REVIVE. NOW, ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT IS VERY WEAK AND HAS BEEN FROM THE BEGINNING. IT’S BEEN UNDERSOURCED, UNDERFUNDED AND UNDERMANNED.
THE WAR AGAINST THE TALIBAN HAS BEEN DONE ON THE CHEAP AND WE’VE
GOTTEN THE RESULTS.

J.Z.: WHICH IS THAT PAKISTAN FEELS A SECURITY THREAT, AND THEREFORE THEY ARGUE TO SOME DEGREE THAT THE REASON WHY THEY’VE HAD TO MAKE THIS PACT WITH THE DEVIL IS BECAUSE THEY SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD TO TAKE THIS ON ABSENCE OF A STRONG NEIGHBOR TO THE NORTH.

Riedel: RIGHT. PAKISTAN, I THINK, IS THE HARDEST PART OF THE PROBLEM OF WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT AL QAEDA. WE CANNOT PURSUE A POLICY OF SIMPLY ASKING PAKISTAN TO DO MORE, TO DO MORE, TO DO MORE WITHOUT TRYING TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE UNDERLYING CONCERNS THAT PAKISTAN HAS, FOR EXAMPLE, KASHMIR. PAKISTAN GOT INTO THE BUSINESS OF SUPPORTING JIHAD BECAUSE OF THE MUJAHIDEEN WAR IN AFGHANISTAN. IT STAYED IN IT BECAUSE OF THE WAR IN KASHMIR. UNLESS WE BEGIN TO RESOLVE THE KASHMIR ISSUE, WE’RE NOT GONNA RESOLVE THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS THAT MAKE PAKISTAN A SUPPORTER OF INTERNATIONAL JIHADISM.

J.Z.: LET’S MOVE TO THE OTHER ARENA, WHICH IS IRAQ, WHICH EVERYONE TODAY ACKNOWLEDGES, DESPITE THE SORT OF FLUBBED INTELLIGENCE EARLY ON, THAT AL QAEDA WAS NOT IN IRAQ, BUT CLEARLY IS NOW.

Riedel: RIGHT.

J.Z.: AND AS WE’VE SEEN RECENTLY FROM STORIES UNFOLDING IN NORTH
AFRICA, ALGERIA, MOROCCO IN PARTICULAR, AND NOW IN LEBANON, THAT THERE ARE IRAQ-AFGHANS AS THERE WERE AFGHAN-ARABS. THERE’S TRAINEES COMING OUT OF THOSE PLACES AND NOW BECOMING A THREAT ELSEWHERE. IS THE PROBLEM MERELY ONE OF COPYCAT AND A SORT OF A
METASTASIZATION OF A PROBLEM WITH THIS PHENOMENA SPREADING, OR IS THERE AN OPERATIONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AL QAEDA IN THE AFGHANISTAN ARENA AND IN IRAQ?

Riedel: OH, IT’S DEFINITELY BOTH. THE AL QAEDA CORE, WHICH WAS REALLY ON DEATH’S DOOR IN 2002, WAS SAVED BY THE WAR IN IRAQ.
WE PULLED OUR BEST SPECIAL FORCES, OUR BEST INTELLIGENCE PEOPLE
OFF THE HUNT AND SENT THEM TO GET READY TO GO INTO IRAQ. AND IN IRAQ, THE AL QAEDA ORGANIZATION HAD A PLAN. WE DIDN’T HAVE A PLAN FOR OCCUPATION, THAT’S VERY CLEAR FROM JERRY BREMER’S BOOK AND
GEORGE TENET’S BOOK. AL QAEDA HAD A PLAN AND THEIR PLAN WAS TO RELENTLESSLY GO AFTER THE FAULT LINE OF IRAQI SOCIETY, THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE, AND BOMB THE COUNTRY INTO A CIVIL WAR. THERE WERE CLEARLY RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE AL QAEDA CORE LEADERSHIP, OSAMA BIN LADEN, AND THEIR FRANCHISES, WHICH IS WHAT I CALL IT, IN IRAQ. AND NOW WE SEE BOTH THOSE TWO HEADQUARTERS DEVELOPING FRANCHISES ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION. YOU MENTIONED ALGERIA, FOR EXAMPLE –
J.Z.: WHERE ELSE?

Lieber: SAUDI ARABIA. THEY’VE MADE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VIOLENCE IN THE KINGDOM IN ITS HISTORY IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS FROM AN AL QAEDA FRANCHISE OPERATING THERE. THEY HAVE FRANCHISES IN YEMEN, AND THEY’RE TRYING TO DEVELOP ONE IN LEBANON. THEY WOULD LOVE TO DEVELOP ONE IF THEY COULD IN GAZA. WHAT THEY WOULD REALLY LIKE TO DO IS HAVE HAMAS JOIN THE INTERNATIONAL JIHADIST MOVEMENT. UNTIL NOW HAMAS HAS HELD THEM AT ARM’S LENGTH. THAT’S WHY AL QAEDA IS SO CRITICAL OF THEM. THEY’RE TRYING TO DEVELOP THEM THROUGHOUT WESTERN EUROPE. THEY HAVE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRANCHISE
OPERATION IN THE PAKISTANI COMMUNITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. THEY’D LIKE TO DEVELOP A SIMILAR ONE IN THE ALGERIAN, MOROCCAN
COMMUNITIES IN FRANCE, BELGIUM, SPAIN—COUNTRIES LIKE THAT.

J.Z.: YOU WROTE RECENTLY ABOUT A THREAT TO FRANCE.

Riedel: RIGHT. THEY MAKE NO SECRET OF IT. THEY CREATED A NEW AL QAEDA IN THE MAGREB LAST YEAR ON THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF SEPTEMBER 11. THESE ANNIVERSARIES ARE A BIG DEAL FOR THEM. THIS WAS A MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT. THEY WERE CREATING A NEW AL QAEDA OPERATION IN THE MAGREB, AND PART OF THE PURPOSE OF THAT IS TO BE ABLE TO ATTACK FRENCH, SPANISH AND OTHER TARGETS IN WESTERN EUROPE.

J.Z.: NOW, YOU HAVE SOME PROPOSALS ABOUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT AFGHANISTAN. ONE OF THEM IS TO FORM A CONTACT GROUP. THAT IS SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP PROPOSED FOR
IRAQ. IT DIDN’T HAPPEN IN IRAQ. THE U.S. HAS A RESISTANCE AGAINST SUCH EFFORTS—IT APPEARS TO BE THIS ADMINISTRATION DOES. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THAT ONE COULD SEE OF THIS BEING RECOGNIZED AS A SOLUTION FOR AFGHANISTAN?

Riedel: I THINK IT MAKES SENSE WHEREVER. WE DID THIS IN THE BALKANS, AND IT WORKED QUITE HELPFULLY IN ORDER TO TRY TO BRING ABOUT STABILITY IN BOSNIA AND IN KOSOVO. IT’S JUST A NATURAL.
IF YOU WANT THE NEIGHBORS TO BE HELPFUL, YOU’VE GOT TO REACH
OUT TO THEM. WE DON’T DO THAT IN IRAQ BECAUSE OF IRAN, AND THE SAME REASON IN AFGHANISTAN—WE DON’T WANT TO BRING THE IRANIANS.

J.Z.: WELL, WE HAD EXTRAORDINARY COOPERATION WITH IRAN EARLY ON.

Riedel: THAT’S RIGHT.

J.Z.: AND THAT FELL APART.

Riedel: THAT FELL APART BECAUSE WE DIDN’T WANT TO PURSUE IT ANYMORE, NOT BECAUSE THE IRANIANS DIDN’T WANT TO PURSUE IT.

J.Z.: WE DIDN’T WANT TO PURSUE IT BECAUSE WE DIDN’T WANT TO PAY
THE PRICE THAT IRAN WANTED, WE DIDN’T FIND IRAN’S COOPERATION ENOUGH, OR WE SIMPLY GOT DIVERTED?

Riedel: I THINK IT’S MORE AN IDEOLOGICAL AVERSION ON THE PART OF THIS ADMINISTRATION.

J.Z.: LET ME GET CALLERS OUT THERE INTO THE DISCUSSION IF YOU WANT. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM OVERSEAS, IT’S 001-202-842-5056.
IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM HERE IN THE U.S., IT’S 1-800-528-2090.
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT AL QAEDA, STRONGER NOW THAN IT WAS BEFORE,
AND WHAT CAN BE DONE TO CONFRONT THIS PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE
MIDDLE EAST AND ELSEWHERE AS IT GROWS. ONE OF THE SUGGESTIONS YOU PROPOSE IS A WAR OF IDEAS, WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE THAN A WAR OF IDEAS, IT’S BEGINNING TO ADDRESS UNMET NEEDS, ONE OF WHICH OF COURSE IS THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT,. I ANT TO PUT THAT ON THE SIDE FOR A MINUTE AND TALK ABOUT ANOTHER IRAQ. I’VE ARGUED FROM MAYBE TWO, MAYBE THREE YEARS OUT, THAT THERE WERE TWO TIME BOMBS TICKING DOWN—ONE WAS THE TIME BOMB TOWARDS CIVIL WAR; THE OTHER WAS THE TIME BOMB TOWARDS AMERICANS DECIDING TO PULL THE PLUG AND LEAVE. I DIDN’T KNOW WHICH ONE WOULD COME FIRST, BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THE AMERICANS PULLING THE PLUG AND LEAVING MAY IN FACT COME FIRST. THE ANNOUNCEMENTS JUST THIS WEEK BY VERY INFLUENTIAL SENATORS ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, NOT JUST LUGAR BUT VOINOVICH, WHO HAVE BEEN STRONG SUPPORTERS OF THE PRESIDENT, MAKE IT CLEAR REPUBLICANS ARE ALSO LOSING PATIENCE. WHAT WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES OF AMERICA WITHDRAWING PREMATURELY IN TERMS OF AL QAEDA? THE PRESIDENT ISSUES DIRE WARNINGS ABOUT THIS. WOULD IT MAKE US SAFER? WOULD IT MAKE US LESS SAFE? WHAT WOULD IT DO TO AL QAEDA’S PRESENCE THERE?

Riedel: I THINK IN THE LONG TERM, AL QAEDA’S GONNA HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO HOLD ON TO THE PRESENCE THEY’VE BUILT IN IRAQ. THEY THRIVE ON BEING THE ENEMIES OF THE OCCUPATION ARMY.
THEY’VE MADE A LOT OF ENEMIES. THEIR TACTICS—BRUTAL, EVIL—HAVE ALIENATED A LOT OF IRAQIS. AND WE’RE ALREADY SEEING THAT IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, IN ANBAR PROVINCE. I THINK WHEN THE OCCUPATION ENDS, THEY’RE GONNA HAVE A HARD TIME THRIVING. DON’T GET ME WRONG—I THINK IT’S GONNA BE MESSY; IT’S GONNA BE UGLY. BUT
IT ALREADY IS MESSY AND UGLY. WE GOT TWO MILLION IRAQIS WHO FLED THEIR COUNTRY, ANOTHER TWO MILLION AT LEAST WHO ARE INTERNALLY DISPLACED. WE’RE SEEING DOZENS OF PEOPLE DIE EVERY DAY. TO SAY IT’S GOING TO BE HORRIBLE, CATASTROPHIC WHEN WE GO, IS
KIND OF MISSING WHAT’S GOING ON TODAY.

J.Z.: WHAT DOES IT DO TO ALLIES IN THE REGION WHO LOOK AT BOTH THE PROBLEM OF AL QAEDA ON THE ONE SIDE AND THE EMPOWERED IRAN ON THE OTHER SIDE AND SAY, “YOU CREATED THIS MESS. TO WALK AWAY FROM IT NOW MAKES OUR LIVES MORE VULNERABLE.”

Riedel: I THINK THEY HAVE A POINT. TO SIMPLY GET UP AND WALK AWAY WILL MAKE THE SITUATION EVEN WORSE. I THINK THE TRICK—
J.Z.: IN TERMS OF THE WAR OF IDEAS, WHAT WE HAVE TO DO TO WIN
FRIENDS AND DEFEAT ENEMIES, IN TERMS OF THIS REPACKAGING YOU
TALK ABOUT, HOW DOES IRAQ FIT INTO THAT? HOW DOES WITHDRAWING FROM IRAQ FIT INTO THAT?

Riedel: I THINK WE HAVE TO REALIZE THAT IRAQ IS THE PRIME RECRUITING TOOL RIGHT NOW FOR AL QAEDA—IN ADDITION TO PALESTINE.
IT IS THE PRIME RECRUITMENT TOOL. FOREIGN OCCUPATION ARMY IN A KEY ARAB COUNTRY IN THE HEART OF MUSLIM WORLD IS A ENORMOUS RECRUITMENT TOOL. I THINK WE SHOULD WITHDRAW. I THINK WHAT WE SHOULD DO IS STATE OUR INTENTION. ONE OF THE THINGS I FOUND MOST SURPRISING ABOUT THIS ADMINISTRATION IS IT HAS NEVER SAID IT DOESN’T PLAN TO HAVE A PERMANENT MILITARY BASE IN IRAQ. NOW IT’S TALKING ABOUT A SOUTH KOREAN-LIKE PERMANENT MILITARY BASE. I THINK THAT EMPOWERS OUR ENEMIES. I THINK YOU CAN WITHDRAW IN A WAY IN WHICH YOU LEGITIMIZE THE IRAQI AUTHORITY THAT YOU LEAVE BEHIND. MAKE IT A COLLABORATIVE WITHDRAWAL IN WHICH THEY GET THE CREDIT IN TERMS OF NATIONAL LEGITIMACY WITH THEIR OWN PEOPLE FOR SEEING THE OCCUPATION COME TO AN ORDERLY, PHASED END.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO NEW MEXICO FOR OUR FIRST CALL. CALLER?

Caller: YES, GOOD EVENING, GENTLEMEN. THANKS FOR TAKING MY CALL.

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Caller: YOU KNOW, FOR YEARS NOW, TO A MAN, THE LEADERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA HAVE BEEN BEATING THE SAME SALIENT DRUM WHICH IS THAT IF WE WANT TO CHANGE THE CONTEXT, THE CURRENT GLOBAL CONTEXT, WE NEED TO GET PEACE AND INDEPENDENCE AND DIGNITY FOR THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE. RECENTLY I WAS HEARTENED TO SEE ON AL JAZEERA’S EUROPEAN BRANCH THEY WERE VERY GLOWINGLY DISCUSSING THE NEW DEVELOPMENTS OF TONY BLAIR TAKING ON THE ROLE OF CHIEF MEDIATOR. EGYPT ANNOUNCED A SUMMIT. DON’T YOU FEEL THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO NOT LET IRAQ DEFINE THE SITUATION IN THE REGION SO WE CAN FINALLY MOVE TO SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIVE?

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Riedel: WITHOUT QUESTION. MOVEMENT ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND PARTICULARLY THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT IS ESSENTIAL TO WINNING THE WAR OF IDEAS AGAINST AL QAEDA. AL QAEDA THRIVES ON THIS CONFLICT. LIKE IRAQ, IT USES IT AS A PRIME RECRUITMENT.
I HOPE TONY BLAIR CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE, BUT I HAVE A FEELING
THAT HE’S BURNED HIS COPY BOOK TOO MUCH IN THE ARAB WORLD, AND
HE’S NOT GOING TO BE CREDIBLE.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO PENNSYLVANIA FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HI, THIS CALL IS FOR MR. RIEDEL. THE MUSLIMS ARE KILLING EACH OTHER IN PAKISTAN AND IN AFGHANISTAN, IN LEBANON, IN GAZA, CERTAINLY IN IRAQ, MOROCCO, ALGERIA. YOU THINK THERE’S AN UNDERLYING THEME HERE, MR. RIEDEL?

Riedel: WELL, I THINK THE AL QAEDA ORGANIZATION HAS SHOWN IT IS AN EVIL TERRORIST ORGANIZATION WHICH IS AS HAPPY TO KILL MUSLIMS IF
THEY FEEL THEY ARE APOSTATES AS THEY ARE TO KILL CHRISTIANS AND
JEWS. BUT I DON’T THINK THAT’S AN INDICTMENT OF ISLAMIC SOCIETY.
WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS AN ABERRATION OF ISLAM, PEOPLE WHO ARE
TRYING TO USE IT FOR POLITICAL PURPOSE.-

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO CALIFORNIA FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HELLO?

J.Z.: YES, HI.

Caller: YES, THIS ISN’T AN ABERRATION OF WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, IT’S PROPHESY. AND WHEN YOU HAVE PROPHESY, WHAT WE’RE DEALING WITH IS A GODLY THING, NOT A MANLY THING. AND WHEN THIS OCCURS, WE’LL ALL KNOW HOW IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN, WHEN
IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN, AND WHY IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN. AND ALL
YOU’LL HAVE TO DO IS TUNE TO THE NEAREST TELEVISION SET. GOD BLESS YOU ALL.

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Riedel: THANK YOU.

J.Z.: COMMENT?

Riedel: THAT SOUNDS A AWFUL LOT WHAT AL QAEDA SAYS—THAT THEY ARE
PROPHESIZING THAT THE END OF THE EVIL EMPIRE, AS THEY CALL US,
IS IMMINENT. I LIKE TO KEEP MY RELIGION AND POLITICS SEPARATE.

J.Z.: IT SOUNDS A LITTLE LIKE SOME OF THE IDEOLOGY THAT GOT US
INTO THIS IN THE FIRST PLACE—FROM OUR END.

Riedel: I THINK MESSIANIC VIEWS ARE FINE FOR PEOPLE TO HAVE IN THEIR CHURCH, IN THEIR MOSQUE, IN THEIR SYNAGOGUE. I LIKE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE PLACES OF GOVERNMENT.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO MAINE FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HELLO. HI, I’M CALLING FROM PORTLAND, MAINE.
THE WAY I’M SEEING WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AT THIS
MOMENT, WHICH I AM FROM THERE, ONLY SOLUTION FOR THIS
COUNTRY, IF YOU BE NOTICE IT, PREVENTED A WAR AND THE CAUSE
OF THE AL QAEDA, ALL THESE GROWED A LOT, TERRORISM, ALL EVERY IT’S MORE, MORE EVERYWHERE. THE BEST SOLUTION, THE WAY I SEE, THE BEST FOR AMERICA TO MOVE UP FROM THIS IRAQ AND WILL CALM DOWN
MUSLIM PEOPLE OF THE WORLD, AND IT WILL HELP.

J.Z.: THANK YOU. THAT’S PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU WERE SAYING, IS THAT WHEN WE PULL OUT IT ACTUALLY CALMS THE WATER INSTEAD OF…

Riedel: I THINK IT DOES TO A GREAT EXTENT. IT WON’T BE EASY. IT WON’T BE SIMPLE. I THINK IT WILL BE MESSY. BUT I DON’T THINK OUR STAYING IN IRAQ IS ADVANCING OUR INTERESTS.-

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO SAUDI ARABIA FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HELLO. HI, JAMES. GREAT SHOW.

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Caller: I WOULD LIKE TO ASK YOUR GUEST ABOUT—I THINK THE
AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION IN WASHINGTON WOULD LIKE TO SELL THE IDEA THAT AL QAEDA IS STRONGER NOW THAN BEFORE IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THEIR EXISTENCE IN IRAQ AND ALSO TO GIVE LEGITIMACY TO THEIR MILITARY OCCUPATION OF IRAQ, ALSO TO,
I THINK, THEY WOULD LIKE TO SELL THIS IDEA IN ORDER TO DIVERT
ATTENTION FROM THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH IS
THAT OF ISRAELI CONFLICT.

J.Z.: THANK YOU. THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. BUT, YOU KNOW, IT’S INTERESTING THAT IN SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH IS MAYBE ONE CASE
WHERE AL QAEDA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PUT ON THE RUN WITHIN A
PARTICULAR ARENA, THE GOVERNMENT STRUCK HARD, STRUCK EFFECTIVELY AND HAS ACTUALLY DONE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE THERE.

Riedel: ABSOLUTELY. AL QAEDA VERY MUCH WANTED, IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE AFGHAN WAR, TO BLOW UP SAUDI ARABIA, TO CREATE CHAOS AND ANARCHY. THE SAUDI AUTHORITIES WERE VERY EFFECTIVE IN GOING AFTER THE LEADERSHIP, ROUNDING THEM UP, AND THEN ALSO, I THINK, IN
WINNING THE WAR OF IDEAS INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA.

J.Z.: HIS POINT ABOUT THE NOTION THAT AL QAEDA IS STRONGER BEING
THE POSITION THE ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO ADVOCATE IN ORDER TO
JUSTIFY THEIR PRESENCE. JUST RESPOND TO THAT, IF YOU WOULD, QUICKLY.

Riedel: I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION IS IN A DIFFICULT PLACE.
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE KNOW AL QAEDA HASN’T BEEN DEFEATED.
THEY HAVEN’T SEEN OSAMA BIN LADEN BEEN BROUGHT TO JUSTICE NOR HIS SENIOR AIDES. I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THE FACT THAT IT HASN’T DONE ITS DUTY TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE IN TERMS OF IMPROVING ITS SECURITY. IT USES AL QAEDA AS AN ARGUMENT TO STAY IN IRAQ, BUT AS YOU NOTED AT THE BEGINNING, THERE WAS NO AL QAEDA IN IRAQ BEFORE WE INVADED THE COUNTRY.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO SWEDEN FOR A CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HELLO. HELLO, JAMES.

J.Z.: YES, HI. HOW ARE YOU?

Caller: FINE, THANK YOU. MY NAME IS LEWIS AND I’M CALLING FROM SWEDEN. I WOULD LIKE TO ASK YOUR GUEST, PLEASE, COULD YOU TELL ME HOW IT—OR EXPLAIN TO ME HOW THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT SUPPORT AL QAEDA AS WE READ IN THE “NEWSWEEK” OR IN THE NEWSPAPER? AND WOULD LIKE TO ASK, LIKE, THE AMERICAN, THEY [INDISTINCT].

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Riedel: I DON’T KNOW OF ANY CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THAT SHOWS OPERATIONAL LINKS BETWEEN THE IRANIANS AND AL QAEDA.
AL QAEDA IS AN EXTREMELY ANTI-SHIA ORGANIZATION. NOW, I DON’T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INDIVIDUAL HERE OR THERE HAVING A TACTICAL ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN GENERAL THESE
TWO ORGANIZATIONS, OR THE STATE IN THIS ORGANIZATION, ARE
ENEMIES.

J.Z.: HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS—IS THERE AN OPERATIONAL LINK?

Riedel: BETWEEN HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS, I THINK THERE IS AN OPERATIONAL LINK BECAUSE HAMAS HAS LOOKED FOR OUTSIDE SUPPORT.
IT’S NEEDED TO GET WEAPONS, MONEY FROM SOMEWHERE, AND HEZBOLLAH
WAS REALLY ONE OF THE FEW PLACES THAT COULD GO FOR THAT.

J.Z.: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, BRUCE RIEDEL. WE’RE GONNA COME BACK AND TALK ABOUT THE NEWLY DECLASSIFIED C.I.A. FILES. WE’RE GONNA DO THAT WITH FORMER ANALYST, RAY MCGOVERN, AND WE’LL TAKE MORE OF YOUR CALLS. SO STAY WITH US. WE’LL BE RIGHT BACK.

I AM JIM ZOGBY, AND I’M BACK. MY NEXT GUEST IS RAY MCGOVERN. HE’S A FORMER C.I.A. ANALYST WHOSE CAREER WITH THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY SPANNED OVER A QUARTER CENTURY. HE SERVED UNDER NINE C.I.A. DIRECTORS AND SEVEN U.S. PRESIDENTS FROM JOHN F. KENNEDY TO GEORGE H.W. BUSH. FOR THE LAST DECADE HE’S BEEN AN OUTSPOKEN COMMENTATOR ON INTELLIGENCE ISSUES AND HE JOINS US WITH HIS PERSPECTIVE ON THE C.I.A. FILES THAT HAVE BEEN RELEASED THIS WEEK. BEFORE I PUT IT UP, I ACTUALLY WANT TO WALK YOU THROUGH SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WERE IN AN INTERESTING “NEW YORK TIMES” ARTICLE. AND BEFORE I DO THAT I WANT TO PUT A QUOTE UP ON THE SCREEN FROM
MICHAEL HAYDEN, C.I.A. DIRECTOR. HE SAID, “I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE IMPROVED SYSTEM OF INTELLIGENCE OVERSIGHT THAT CAME OUT OF THE 1970s GIVES THE C.I.A. A FAR STRONGER PLACE IN OUR DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM. WHAT WE DO NOW IS PROTECT AMERICANS, AND WE DO IT WITHIN A
POWERFUL FRAMEWORK OF LAW AND REVIEW.” I DON’T THINK YOU AGREE WITH THAT.

Ray McGovern, Former CIA Analyst: THAT’S RUBBISH.

J.Z.: BUT LET’S LOOK AT WHAT “THE NEW YORK TIMES” DID. THEY TOOK A LOOK AT FOUR SPECIFIC AREAS, AND THEY DID A KIND OF A THEN AND NOW. AND I THINK IT’S INTERESTING TO DO THAT BECAUSE THERE WERE THE HIGHLY-TOUTED REFORMS THAT OCCURRED IN THE FORD ADMINISTRATION.

McGovern: THAT’S CORRECT.

J.Z.: THAT SORT OF REINED IN A LOT OF ABUSES THAT HAD OCCURRED BEFORE, SOME OF WHICH ACTUALLY ENDED UP CROPPING UP IN DIFFERENT WAYS IN THE WATERGATE SCANDAL WHERE YOU HAD FORMER C.I.A. OPERATIVES ACTUALLY USING SOME INTELLIGENCE ASSETS FROM THE AGENCY TO PURSUE THIS POLITICAL AGENDA. LET’S PUT THEM UP ON THE SCREEN AND LOOK AT THE AREAS. ONE WAS ASSASSINATION PLOTS. THE SECOND WAS DOMESTIC SURVEILLANCE. THE THIRD WAS SURVEILLANCE OF ANTI-WAR ACTIVITIES. AND THE FOURTH IS DETENTION AND INTERROGATION.
LET’S LOOK AT ALL OF THEM, IF WE COULD, FIRST STARTING WITH
ASSASSINATION. CASTRO AND LUMUMBA—AND THERE WERE OTHERS, SOME OF WHICH WE STILL DON’T KNOW ABOUT. WHERE ARE WE ON THAT ONE NOW?

McGovern: NO FURTHER THAN WE WERE IN THE MID-1970s WHEN THESE
FAMILY JEWELS WERE FIRST ACTUALLY PRESENTED TO CONGRESS BY A
VERY COURAGEOUS DIRECTOR, WILLIAM COLBY, AND LEAKED LIBERALLY
TO THE PRESS. THERE’S AN EXCELLENT COMPILATION OF WHERE WE ARE ON THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON CASTRO. THE DETAILS FLUSHED OUT IN
THESE SHOW THAT THERE WERE 8 OF THEM. AND SO IT LEADS TO A REASONABLE PERSON TO SPECULATE AS TO WHETHER THIS DIDN’T HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE ASSASSINATIONS OF JOHN KENNEDY AND ROBERT KENNEDY.

J.Z.: IT WAS INTERESTING TO ME TO FIND THAT BOBBY KENNEDY WAS
ACTUALLY INVOLVED IN A LOT OF THIS, THAT HE WAS ACTUALLY—HE
GAVE, IN PARTICULAR, THE - SOME SURVEILLANCE OF REPORTERS, FOR
EXAMPLE, HE SIGNED OFF ON A LOT OF THAT. NOT QUITE THE IMAGE OF BOBBY KENNEDY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS TODAY.

McGovern: YEAH. WELL, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU REACH THAT KIND OF POWER, YOU PLAY FAST AND LOOSE WITH WHO’S SUPPOSED TO DO WHAT. IT SIMPLY WAS THAT HE SHOULD HAVE GONE TO THE F.B.I. TO DO THAT AND
NOT THE C.I.A., WHETHER HE WAS CONFUSED OR JUST CARELESS IS THE
QUESTION.

J.Z.: TELL ME WHERE WE ARE ON ASSASSINATIONS TODAY. DO WE STILL DO THEM?

McGovern: YOU AND I ARE NOT ALLOWED TO KNOW. THE PRESIDENT AND OTHERS HAVE REFUSED TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION.

J.Z.: WHAT ABOUT SURVEILLANCE-C.I.A. ACCESS TO SURVEILED DOMESTIC
ACTIVITY?

McGovern: NOW, SURVEILLANCE IS VERY INTERESTING. YOU KNOW THIS IS THE CAUSE CELEBRE RIGHT NOW. YOU KNOW THAT WARRANTS OR SUBPOENAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HIGH-LEVEL OFFICIALS TO PRONOUNCE ON THE
PRESIDENT’S PROGRAM WHICH INCLUDES SURVEILING THE CALLS AND
OTHER COMMUNICATIONS OF AMERICAN CITIZENS. NOW, IN MY DAY, AND I SERVED DURING THIS PERIOD, SIXTIES, SEVENTIES, AND EIGHTIES,
IT WAS VERBOTEN, IT WAS ABSOLUTELY VERBOTEN TO MONITOR AMERICANS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. MATTER OF FACT, IN THOSE DOCUMENTS YOU CAN SEE LARRY HOUSTON, THE OFFICE OF THE GENERAL COUNSEL, WAS CONTINUALLY PULLING HIS HAIR OUT AND ACTUALLY INTERRUPTING AND CANCELING SOME
OPERATIONS WHEN HE LEARNED THAT ON ONE END, EVEN IF THE CALL URGENTLY NEEDED ABROAD, IF THERE WAS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN ON THE OTHER END, THAT’S IT, SCRAP THAT PROGRAM, OK? SO THERE WAS A DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO OPERATE WITHIN THE LAW. NOW, NOW LOOK AT THE SITUATION. MICHAEL HAYDEN, AS HEAD OF THE N.S.A., IS APPROACHED BY THE PRESIDENT RIGHT AFTER SEPTEMBER 11, AND THE PRESIDENT SAYS WE’RE GOING TO SURVEIL AMERICAN CITIZENS, AND WE’RE GONNA DO IT
BIG TIME, AND I WANT YOU TO DEVISE THE PROGRAM. NOW, HE’S A UNIFORMED OFFICER OF THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE. HE TOOK AN OATH TO PROTECT THE CONSTITUTION. HE KNEW DARN WELL WHAT THE LAW WAS.
HE SHOULD HAVE SAID, “I’M SORRY, MR. PRESIDENT, I WILL NOT OBEY
AN ILLEGAL ORDER. YOU BETTER FIND SOMEBODY ELSE TO DO THAT.”
INSTEAD HE SAID, “YES, SIR. HOW HIGH DO YOU WANT ME TO JUMP?”
AND SO THAT’S THE GRAVITATION HERE FROM A—NOT SCRUPULOUS, BUT A
VERY, VERY CAREFUL OBSERVANCE OF THE NICETIES OF THE PROHIBITION
AGAINST SURVEILLANCE OF U.S. CITIZENS TO A FULL-SCALE, “YES,
SIR, MR. PRESIDENT.” WHAT HAPPENED IN BETWEEN? DAVID ADDINGTON HAPPENED IN BETWEEN. MOST PEOPLE FORGET THAT DICK CHENEY’S LAWYER AND NOW HIS CHIEF OF STAFF, DAVID ADDINGTON, WAS BROUGHT INTO THE C.I.A. BY WILLIAM CASEY AND WORKED IN THE OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL FOR FOUR YEARS, 1981-1985. WHEN YOU BRING THAT KIND OF PERSON INTO THE OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, YOU GET THE KIND OF CORRUPTION THAT HAPPENED IN THE ANALYTIC SECTION, WHAT HAPPENED IN THE OPERATIONS SECTION, AND YOU GET THE KIND OF RESULT THAT DAVID ADDINGTON INGRATIATES HIMSELF AT THE LIKES OF CASEY AND CHENEY AND ENDS UP WRITING THE TORTURE LAW AND THE INTERCEPTED COMMUNICATION.

J.Z.: WANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT—THE TORTURE AND THE DETENTION, THE WHOLE INTERROGATION ISSUE BECAUSE BACK IN THE EARLIER PERIOD, ALL
THAT IT REQUIRED WAS TO GET APPROVAL IF YOU WERE GOING TO INFLICT BODILY HARM OR IF YOU WERE GOING TO USE “MEDICAL, CHEMICAL, OR ELECTRONIC MATERIAL OR DEVICES TO SECURE INFORMATION.” SOUNDS LIKE TORTURE TO ME.

McGovern: YOU’RE REFERRING TO?

J.Z.: THE EARLIER PERIOD.

McGovern: WELL, THE EARLIER PERIOD, IT WAS THE SAME RULES FOR THE ARMY. I WAS AN ARMY OFFICER. I MEMORIZED THAT MANUAL. I DON’T KNOW WHERE YOU’RE GETTING THAT FROM.

J.Z.: THAT WAS IN THE “NEW YORK TIMES” AS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS IN THE FAMILY JEWELS REPORT. BUT WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THAT AND NOW? NONE.

McGovern: WELL, THERE’S NONE NOW, NO. AND, IF THIS—WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE C.I.A., THAT’S DIFFERENT. YOU’LL RECALL CHENEY AND PORTER GOSS, THEN HEAD OF THE C.I.A., JUMPING DOWN TO SENATOR MCCAIN’S OFFICE TO PLEA FOR AN EXCEPTION FOR THE AGENCY SO THEY WOULDN’T BE BOUND BY THE ARMY RULES AGAINST TORTURE.

J.Z.: NOW, LET ME JUST ASK YOU, YOU HAVE ARGUED THAT THE AGENCY’S BROKEN, THAT IN TERMS OF ITS OPERATIONS THAT IT HAS BECOME POLLUTED BY POLITICS AND DOES NOT PROVIDE THE INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS IT WAS SUPPOSED TO. YOU MAKE THE OBVIOUS CASE IN POINT ABOUT THE GEORGE TENET SLAM-DUNK REPORT. HOW BAD IS IT, AND CAN IT BE FIXED?

McGovern: THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. I HAD GIVEN UP HOPE, BUT NO LONGER. WHY? BECAUSE THE ACME OF ANALYSIS, THE SO-CALLED NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, 3 OF THEM HAVE BEEN DONE, 3 OF THEM HAVE BEEN SHARED WITH THE PRESS, AND ALL OF THEM HAD GUTSY CONCLUSIONS.
TWO YEARS AGO AT THIS TIME, CONCLUSION? IRAN COULDN’T POSSIBLY
GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT DECADE. THAT’S NOT WHAT DICK CHENEY WAS SAYING. APRIL OF LAST YEAR, INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM HAS GONE UP GEOMETRICALLY. WHY? MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE U.S. INVASION OF IRAQ. THAT’S NOT WHAT DICK CHENEY WAS SAYING. AND
IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, AN ESTIMATE OF WHITHER IRAQ. WHITHER? TO HELL IN A HAND BASKET. NOW, THERE WAS NO JUSTIFICATION AT ALL IN THAT LAST ESTIMATE FOR ANY SURGE OR NO THOUGHT IN THAT LAST ESTIMATE THAT ANYTHING LIKE A SURGE COULD REPAIR THE SITUATION.
SO THREE INSTANCES WHERE HONEST WORK WAS DONE AND A PATRIOTIC TRUTH-TELLER DECIDED TO SHARE THAT WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BY GOING TO THE “WASHINGTON POST” AND THE “NEW YORK TIMES,” AND I APPLAUD BOTH OF THOSE KINDS OF PEOPLE.

J.Z.: WE’LL FOLLOW-UP ON THAT, BUT I WANT TO GET CALLERS INTO THE
CONVERSATION AS WELL. IF YOU’RE CALLING FROM OVERSEAS, IT’S 001-202-842-5056. HERE IN THE U.S. IT’S 1-800-528-2090.
IF YOU’VE TAKEN A LOOK AT ANY OF THE REPORTS ON THIS RELEASE OF THE FAMILY JEWELS, YEARS OF C.I.A. OPERATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE
PUBLIC, AND YOU WANT TO TALK TO RAY MCGOVERN ABOUT IT, GIVE US A
CALL. THE REPORTS WERE HONEST. BUT DO THEY GET LISTENED TO?

McGovern: WELL, THAT’S THE QUESTION. THIS PRESIDENT DOESN’T LISTEN TO ANYONE BUT HIS VERY SMALL COTERIE OF ADVISORS, WHICH IS MISSING EVEN COLIN POWELL NOW. FOR WHATEVER HE WAS WORTH AT LEAST HE KNEW WHICH END WAS UP. WE CALL IT IN INTELLIGENCE PARLANCE A “SELF-LICKING ICE CREAM CONE.” NOW PICTURE IT HERE. THE ICE CREAM IS ORDERED BY DICK CHENEY, AND ALL FIVE OF THEIR CHIEF ADVISORS LICK FROM THE SAME CONE.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO GEORGE TENET. YOU’VE BEEN A VERY SEVERE CRITIC OF MR. TENET. YOU FOUND HIM ILL-SUITED FOR THE JOB IN THE FIRST PLACE BECAUSE HE CAME OUT OF THE POLITICAL WORLD, OPERATED AS A POLITICIAN MORE THAN AS AN INDEPENDENT ANALYST. AND YOU NOT ONLY HOLD HIM RESPONSIBLE FOR FUDGING THE DATA, BUT ALSO FOR NOW PROFITING OFF OF IT. YOU’VE BEEN A CRITIC OF HIS BOOK—ASKED HIM, I THINK, IN A VERY STRIKING LETTER TO GIVE THE PROFITS DERIVED
FROM THE BOOK TO THE VETERANS WHO ARE PAYING THE PRICE FOR WHAT
HE’S DONE. WHAT’S BEEN THE REACTION TO YOUR CRITICISM—YOU AND OTHER ANALYSTS, OTHER C.I.A. ANALYSTS?

McGovern: THERE WERE SIX OF US THAT SENT THAT LETTER. WE GOT VERY MEAGER PLAY IN THE PRESS, AND IT FELT LIKE THE PROVERBIAL TREE IN THE FOREST. NO ONE PRETTY MUCH TOOK—TENET WAS ASKED ABOUT IT ONCE OR TWICE ON HIS VARIOUS INTERVIEWS. HE SAID, “THAT’S RIDICULOUS. I’M NOT GONNA GIVE BACK MY $4 MILLION.” I DON’T CARE ABOUT THE $4 MILLION, JIM. I CARE ABOUT THE KIDS, YOUNG MEN AND WOMEN, 3,500 OF THEM NOW THAT ARE DEAD BECAUSE GEORGE TENET ACTED LIKE – LIKE JOSEF GOEBBELS.

J.Z.: NOW, WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE FORD ADMINISTRATION WAS NOT JUST WATERGATE, BUT IT WAS A VERY INTENSE NATIONAL DEBATE ON ABUSE. AND IN FACT, A PARTISAN CHALLENGE WHICH FORD HAD TO RESPOND TO. THAT’S ABSENT RIGHT NOW. THERE’S NOT THE VIGOROUS RESPONSE COMING FROM A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH MEMBER, GROUP OF MEMBERS OF THE SENATE OR CONGRESS, TO MAKE THIS CHALLENGE REAL. WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN BEFORE THESE ABUSES CAN GET REINED IN BY SOME KIND OF CHANGE IN POLICY?

McGovern: FEAR IS THE MAJOR FACTOR. THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ASSOCIATES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PLAY ON THE FEAR FACTOR, TO SCARE EVERYONE INCLUDING THE POLITICIANS. FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE “NEW YORK TIMES” FINALLY RAN, AFTER A FULL YEAR, THAT ARTICLE ON ILLEGAL WARRANTLESS WIRETAPPING, THE PRESIDENT GOT UP ON DECEMBER 17 AND SAID, “I DID IT. I’M PROUD I DID IT. I DID IT 30 TIMES.
I JUST RE-AUTHORIZED IT, AND I’M GONNA CONTINUE TO DO IT.” OK.
NOW, AS JOHN DEAN HAS POINTED OUT, THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES HAS THEREBY ADMITTED TO AN IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE—CLEARLY IN VIOLATION OF THE FISA LAW, NOBODY DISPUTES THAT. HE DID IT, AND HE CONTINUES TO DO IT. JUDGE ANNA DIGGS TAYLOR IN DETROIT SAID THIS WAS UNCONSTITUTIONAL AS WELL AS ILLEGAL. AND SO WHAT YOU HAVE IS A PRESIDENT THAT WILL SAY, “BECAUSE OF THESE TERRORISTS, BECAUSE OF THESE TERRORISTS, I CAN OBEY WHATEVER LAWS I DEEM THAT I SHOULD AND THE FISA LAW, YEAH, I SIGNED 30 TIMES TO…” AND HE GOT, OF COURSE, MICHAEL HAYDEN TO COOPERATE. NOW, ONE OF MICHAEL HAYDEN’S PREDECESSORS AS HEAD OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY SAID THAT HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN COURT-MARTIALED FOR DOING WHAT HE DID. BOBBY RAY INMAN, VIRTUALLY A PARAGON OF VIRTUE AROUND THIS TOWN, SAID HAYDEN SHOULD HAVE KNOWN, THAT HAYDEN DID KNOW IT WAS ILLEGAL. SO YOU’VE GOT SOME PRETTY HEAVY-HITTERS SAYING HAYDEN SHOULDN’T HAVE COOPERATED WITH THAT.

J.Z.: YOU SAY FEAR, BUT WHAT—IS IT POLITICS FEAR?

McGovern: WELL, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE STILL AFRAID. THE LATEST POLL I SAW TALKED ABOUT MOST OF THEM STILL THINK THAT IRAQ HAS SOME TIE WITH AL QAEDA. AND NOW WE’RE BLAMING EVERY TERRORIST INCIDENT IN BAGHDAD ON AL QAEDA. I MEAN, IT’S TRANSPARENTLY RIDICULOUS.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO U.K. FOR A CALL. CALLER?

Caller: OH, HELLO. YES. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THIS INTERESTING PROGRAM AND FOR YOUR GUEST. I JUST WANT TO SAY IT’S A LITTLE BIT WORRYING THAT BIG SECURITY ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE C.I.A. AND MI-6 MAKE A STUPID MISTAKE BY ASSUMING THAT SADDAM’S IRAQ HAD WMDs AND WAS LINKED TO AL QAEDA. THEN WE DISCOVERED THAT ACTUALLY THE COUNTRY WHICH HAS BOTH LINKS IS IRAN, WHO BENEFITED THE MOST FROM THE INVASION IN IRAQ. ISN’T THAT WORRYING? AND IS IT WORRYING FOR THE FUTURE THAT WHO COULD WE TRUST WITH OUR SECURITY?

J.Z.: THANK YOU. THANK YOU FOR THE CALL. WHAT DOES IT DO TO THE MORALE WITHIN THE INTELLIGENCE, THE ANALYST COMMUNITY, WHEN SOMETHING LIKE THAT COMES OUT AND PEOPLE KNEW DIFFERENTLY, BUT SEE THEIR WORK BEING USED IN THIS WAY?

McGovern: WELL, A TERRIBLE BLOW TO MORALE HAPPENED WHEN COLIN POWELL GOT UP THERE AND MADE THAT SPEECH. THE C.I.A. ANALYSTS HAD BEEN FIGHTING FOR TWO YEARS AGAINST THE NOTION THAT AL QAEDA HAD SOMETHING TO DO—OR THAT AL QAEDA AND SADDAM HUSSEIN WERE TOGETHER, OR THAT THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT LINKS BETWEEN THEM. AND THEN GEORGE TENET SITS BEHIND COLIN POWELL WHEN COLIN POWELL SPEAKS ABOUT A SINISTER NEXUS BETWEEN AL QAEDA AND IRAQ. IT’S JUST UNCONSCIONABLE. ON THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, WELL, GEORGE TENET KNEW THERE WERE NONE THERE. EVERY TIME HE SAYS, “I BELIEVE THEY WERE THERE,” THAT’S ANOTHER LIE. HE KNEW IT BECAUSE SADDAM HUSSEIN’S SON-IN-LAW TOLD HIM, HE KNEW IT BECAUSE THE IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER IN PLACE THAT WE HAD TURNED IN 2002 TOLD HIM, AND HE KNEW IT FROM ALL OTHER KINDS OF SOURCES. MATTER OF FACT, HE TOLD HIS BRITISH COUNTERPART THAT THE INTELLIGENCE WAS BEING FIXED, QUOTE, END QUOTE, AROUND THE POLICY. SO EVERY TIME HE SAYS BEFORE A TV AUDIENCE THAT, “I REALLY BELIEVED THERE WERE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION THERE,” I GET A LITTLE SICKER IN MY STOMACH.

J.Z.: NOW, ONE OF THE REFORMS OF THIS ADMINISTRATION WAS TO CREATE A DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THIS. HAS THAT WORKED?

McGovern: NO. WELL, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, THE ESTIMATES PRODUCTION WAS TAKEN OUT FROM UNDER THE C.I.A. AND PUT UNDER THIS NEW SUPERSTRUCTURE, AND THE FELLOW THAT IS RUNNING THAT, TOM FINGER, HAPPENS TO COME FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT. HE HAPPENS TO BE AN HONEST, VERY BRIGHT GUY. AND THAT ACCOUNTS IN LARGE MEASURE FOR THE THREE ESTIMATES THAT I MENTIONED BEFORE. NOW, THERE’S ONE MORE ESTIMATE DUE. IT’S AN ESTIMATE ON IRAN NUCLEAR. IN OTHER WORDS, UPDATING THE ONE FROM TWO YEARS AGO—HOW SOON CAN IRAN GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON? THAT WAS TO HAVE BEEN PRODUCED IN JANUARY—“NO, NO. MARCH – APRIL – MAY.” NOW IT’S SUPPOSED TO BE DONE IN JUNE. IT’S STILL NOT DONE. I WONDER WHY. IT’S DONE. WHY IS IT NOT RELEASED?
BECAUSE IT PROBABLY DOESN’T AGREE WITH WHAT DICK CHENEY WANTS
THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY TO SEE.

J.Z.: THAT’S ALL WE HAVE TIME FOR NOW, BUT WE WANT TO CONTINUE THE
CONVERSATION. THANKS FOR JOINING US. WE’RE GONNA TALK NEXT WITH THE CO-AUTHOR ON A NEW REPORT OF U.S. STRATEGY IN IRAQ AND THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST, AND WE’LL TAKE MORE OF YOUR CALLS. STAY WITH US. WE’LL BE RIGHT BACK.

I’M JIM ZOGBY, AND YOU’RE WATCHING “VIEWPOINT.” MY NEXT GUEST IS BRIAN KATULIS. HE’S SENIOR FELLOW AT THE CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS WHERE HE EXAMINES U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY IN IRAQ
AND THE MIDDLE EAST. HE’S ALSO A SENIOR ADVISOR TO THE CENTER’S
MIDDLE EAST PROGRESS PROJECT. HE IS ALSO CO-AUTHOR OF A REPORT THEY ISSUED THIS WEEK CALLED “STRATEGIC RESET: RECLAIMING CONTROL OF U.S. SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR JOINING US, BRIAN.

Brian Katulis, Center for American Progress: THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

J.Z.: YOU MADE THE LONG TRIP DOWNSTAIRS—YOU’RE IN THE BUILDING.
I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE REPORT IF I COULD AND JUST PUT UP IF I CAN THE FOUR SECTIONS OF WHAT THE REPORT IS ABOUT. THE FIRST IS TO ACCEPT THE REALITY OF IRAQ’S POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION. THE SECOND IS THE IMPLEMENT A PHASED MILITARY REDEPLOYMENT OF IRAQ WITHIN ONE YEAR. LET’S JUST TALK ABOUT THOSE 2 FIRST, IF WE CAN. FIRST, ACCEPT THE REALITY OF IRAQ’S POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION. BY THAT DO YOU MEAN WHAT JOE BIDEN MEANS AND SAM BROWNBACK WHICH IS IRAQ’S GOING TO BE PETITIONED, LET’S JUST GO FOR IT?

Katulis: ABSOLUTELY NOT. WE DISAGREE WITH THAT NOTION. WE DON’T THINK IT’S THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES OR ANYONE ELSE TO MAKE THESE DECISIONS. I THINK WE NEED THE IRAQIS TO MAKE THOSE DECISIONS, AND WHAT WE’RE HIGHLIGHTING IS THE STASIS AND STALEMATE THAT EXISTS AT IRAQ’S NATIONAL POLITICAL LEVEL. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTAL REALITIES ON THE GROUND, A LOT OF THE POWER HAS ACTUALLY GONE OUT TO THE PROVINCES AND TO THE REGIONS, AND WE NEED TO ADAPT OUR POLICIES TO REFLECT THAT REALITY. SO WE’RE SAYING
IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE TO HAVE A THOUSAND-PERSON EMBASSY AT THE
CENTER OF BAGHDAD. IT MIGHT BE BETTER FOR US TO DIVERSIFY OUR PRESENCE. BUT WE AS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD NOT BE MAKING THESE DECISIONS IN THE WAY THAT—I THINK THE BIDEN PLAN TRIES TO MAKE THESE DECISIONS FOR THE IRAQIS THEMSELVES.

J.Z.: LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT A MAP THAT WE HAVE FROM YOUR REPORT. IT’S ON PAGE 5. AND INCIDENTALLY, YOU CAN GET THE REPORT BY GOING TO WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG. IT’S THERE. THIS IS PAGE 5 FROM THE REPORT. AND I WANT TO KEEP IT UP FOR A WHILE, IF WE COULD. IT’S ON THE SCREEN RIGHT THERE, AND IT SHOWS FLAMES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. UP IN THE NORTH THERE ARE TWO SETS OF FLAMES RELATING TO ALL OF THE DIFFERENT INTERNAL CONFLICTS. THERE’S THE TURKISH-KURDISH CONFLICT, THERE’S THE INTERNAL PROBLEM IN KURDISTAN BETWEEN TURKOMANS AND ARABS AND KURDS. IN THE WEST THERE IS THE INTRA-SUNNI CONFLICT BETWEEN THE SUPPORTERS OF AL QAEDA AND SOME OF THE TRIBES. IN THE SOUTH THERE’S THE INTRA-SHIA CONFLICT BETWEEN COMPETING PARTIES. AND THEN THE HUGE FLAME IN THE CENTER IN BAGHDAD, WHICH IS THE SECTARIAN CIVIL CONFLICT BETWEEN COMPETING GROUPS. HOW DOES RECOGNITION OF THAT AND ALTERING OUR STRATEGY BY WITHDRAWING FORCES—HOW DOES IT RESOLVE THOSE?
HOW DOES IT PUT THOSE FLAMES OUT, OR DON’T THEY JUST BURN WILD?

Katulis: WELL, THE SECOND PART OF THE REPORT, WHICH IS THE REGIONAL SECURITY AND DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES, ARE THE THING THAT’S GOING TO SOLVE THOSE CONFLICTS, NOT MORE U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION. I THINK FOUR MONTHS, NEARLY FIVE MONTHS INTO THIS SURGE, IT’S PRETTY CLEAR TO A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE OVERALL IN IRAQ HAS NOT CHANGED. IT’S DROPPED IN SOME PARTS LIKE AL-ANBAR AND BAGHDAD, BUT WE’VE NOT ACHIEVED SUSTAINABLE POLITICAL SOLUTIONS, AND WHAT WE’RE ARGUING IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PAPER IS THAT IT’S NOT GONNA BE U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION, BECAUSE WE’VE TRIED THAT THE LAST THREE OR FOUR YEARS, IT’S GOT TO BE MORE INTENSIFIED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ON THE PARTS OF IRAQ’S LEADERS AND IRAQ’S NEIGHBORS TO SETTLE THESE—
J.Z.: NOW, YOU CRITICIZE THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORTS, SAYING
THAT WHAT THEY CALLED FOR NO LONGER EXISTS.

Katulis: EXACTLY.

J.Z.: IN EFFECT THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ THAT CAN BE SUPPORTED AND BUILT UP. THAT’S GONNA BE NEWS TO A LOT OF PEOPLE, NOT JUST IN IRAQ AND NOT JUST THE REGION, BUT IN IRAQ ITSELF.

Katulis: YEAH, I THINK THAT’S A FUNDAMENTAL REALITY A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE TO ACCEPT. WE THINK THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP’S RECOMMENDATIONS ON REGIONAL DIPLOMACY STILL ARE RELEVANT. WE ACTUALLY NEED TO MAKE THAT THE LEAD OF OUR EFFORTS ON THE PART OF THE U.S.-

J.Z.: BUT TALK TO ME ABOUT THE FACT THAT-THIS CONCEPT THAT IRAQ DOESN’T EXIST AS A PLACE WITH A CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. I MEAN,
IF WE CAN’T STRENGTHEN A CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND WE PULL OUT OR
WITHDRAW IN THAT CONTEXT, THEN WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND BUT A
FAILED STATE?

Katulis: WELL, THAT’S WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY WE WOULD ARGUE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT PARALLEL MINISTRIES, YOU LOOK AT MINISTRIES
BECOMING FIEFDOMS OF DIFFERENT SECTARIAN INTERESTS, YOU NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT SORT OF REALITY. WE ALLOW FOR THE FACT THAT THE UNITED NATIONS SHOULD STAY THERE AND WORK ON THE POLITICAL PROCESS AND HELP WITH THAT POLITICAL PROCESS. WHAT WE’RE SAYING, ESSENTIALLY, IS SENDING SECRETARY GATES, SENDING NEGROPONTE, SENDING WILLIAM FALLON TO PRESSURE THE IRAQIS ON THE BENCHMARKS HASN’T YIELDED RESULTS, NOR SHOULD WE EXPECT IT TO.

J.Z.: LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE LAST SECOND BOARD WHICH IS THE LAST 2 RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE REPORT. AND THE FIRST IS TO INITIATE REGIONAL SECURITY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO CONTAIN IRAQ’S CONFLICTS, AND FOURTHLY, TO DEVELOP STRATEGIES TO RESOLVE THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND STABILIZE THE MIDDLE EAST. ON THE FIRST ONE, THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP CALLED FOR A NEW DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE, AND PART OF IT WAS THE CREATION OF A SUPPORT GROUP OF IRAQ’S NEIGHBORS. BUT IN DISCUSSIONS I HAD AT THE TIME AND SINCE WITH DRAFTERS OF THAT REPORT, THAT WAS PRECONDITIONED ON AMERICA REMAINING THERE DURING THE PERIOD THAT GAVE US THE ABILITY TO PULL THAT TOGETHER. IF WE ARE GOING TO WITHDRAW, HOW DO WE FORM A CONTACT GROUP?

Katulis: WELL, I THINK IT GIVES EVEN GREATER INCENTIVE TO WITHDRAW. THERE HAD BEEN EFFORTS WITH THE MEETINGS OF THE REGIONAL NEIGHBORS IN SHARM EL-SHEIK AND ONE IN BAGHDAD IN MARCH. AND THEY HAVEN’T REALLY RESULTED IN MUCH IN PART BECAUSE I THINK A LOT OF THEM—
J.Z.: BUT THEY HAVEN’T BEEN CONTACT GROUPS, HAVE THEY? I MEAN, THEY’VE BEEN MEETINGS, AND THEY HAVEN’T HAD ANY STANDING – THEY HAVEN’T BEEN EMPOWERED IN ANY WAY.

Katulis: YEAH. AND ONE WAY TO EMPOWER THEM IS PUT THOSE COUNTRIES ON NOTICE AND SAY LOOK, THE U.S. IS NOT GOING TO STAY HERE FOR AN
INDEFINITE PERIOD OF TIME. THE U.S. IS NOT GOING TO STAY THERE FOREVER, AND I THINK THAT’S AN INCENTIVE THAT’S MISSING FROM THAT WHOLE PROCESS, AND THAT’S WHAT WE’RE ARGUING—HAND IN GLOVE—THE DRAW-DOWN OF U.S. TROOPS NEEDS TO BE COMBINED WITH INTENSIFIED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

J.Z.: NOW LET’S GO TO THE LAST ONE WHICH IS THE DIPLOMATIC EFFORT IN THE BROADER REGION, THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT. I MUST SAY THAT
IN ALL THE AREAS THAT I LOOKED AT IN WHAT YOU DID, AND I’VE READ OTHER STUFF YOU’VE WRITTEN, AND IT’S GREAT ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT. THIS WAS THE WEAKEST SECTION IN THE PIECE. IT SIMPLY TALKS ABOUT CREATING A—IF YOU WILL—A KIND OF A MID EAST PEACE CZAR WITH TWO AMBASSADORS WORKING UNDER SAID CZAR TO NEGOTIATE, BUT NO OUTLINE. WAS IT DELIBERATE THAT YOU SORT OF SHORTCHANGED THAT PART OF THE DISCUSSION?

Katulis: WELL, IT WAS—

J.Z.: BECAUSE THE IRAQ STUDY GROUP IS MORE COMPLETE, AND OTHER WRITINGS THAT YOU AND THE CENTER HAVE DONE ARE FAR MORE COMPLETE IN TERMS OF WHAT STEPS HAVE TO BE TAKEN.

Katulis: WELL, IT WAS DELIBERATE. AND IF YOU LOOK AT CERTAIN POINTS, WE SAY WELL, THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS WE NEED TO DO, BUT THE PROBLEM IS A LOT OF THESE ISSUES ARE INTERLOCKING. IT’S HARD TO RESOLVE ONE WITHOUT MOVING FORWARD ON THE OTHER. AND THE FIRST POINT WE WANTED TO MAKE IS WE GOT TO GET A TEAM IN PLACE. WE DON’T
HAVE A FULL TEAM ACTUALLY WORKING THIS ISSUE INTENSIVELY AND
REGULARLY IN THE WAY WE DID IN THE 1990s, AND U.S. STRATEGIC
INTERESTS HAVE SUFFERED AS A RESULT.

J.Z.: LET’S GET THOSE OF YOU OUT THERE IN THE CONVERSATION.
IF YOU WANT TO GIVE US A CALL, IT’S 001-202-842-5056. HERE IN THE U.S., IT’S 1-800-528-2090.
I’M GONNA ASK YOU THE SAME QUESTION I ASKED BRUCE RIEDEL, WHO WAS OUR FIRST GUEST, AND THAT IS THAT IF THE U.S. WITHDRAWS AND THE VIOLENCE BECOMES EVEN MORE ACCELERATED THAN IT IS TODAY, WHAT DOES THAT DO TO DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES, PEOPLE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, IN
PARTICULAR? THOSE ALLIES THAT WE’VE HAD IN THE GULF FEEL ON THE
ONE HAND THREATENED BY AN EMPOWERED AND EMBOLDENED IRAN AND BY
THE GROWING PRESENCE OF AL QAEDA IN IRAQ, SENDING TRAINEES OUT INTO THE BROADER REGION. IF WE LEAVE UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES,
DOESN’T THAT IN FACT WEAKEN OUR ABILITY TO CONDUCT DIPLOMACY?

Katulis: I WOULD ARGUE IT WOULD WEAKEN OUR ABILITY TO STAY THERE WITH AN OPEN-ENDED COMMITMENT BY NOT HAVE THIS THREAT AND PUTTING
COUNTRIES IN THE REGION ON NOTICE, SAYING “LOOK, WE’RE NOT STAYING HERE FOR A WHILE.” YOU RECALL IN THE FALL OF 2005, GENERAL ABIZAID AND KHALILZAD WERE HINTING THAT THE U.S. WAS ACTUALLY GOING TO LEAVE. WHAT HAPPENED? THE ARAB LEAGUE ACTUALLY STARTED A SERIES OF INTENSE MEETINGS TO SAY, “LOOK, WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS,” AND I THINK WE NEED TO REIGNITE THAT. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE DON’T GIVE ENOUGH CREDIT TO COUNTRIES IN THE
REGION TO SERVE THEIR OWN INTERESTS RESPONSIBLY AND CAPABLY AND
OPERATE IN THEIR OWN SELF-INTEREST. AND I THINK WE NEED TO DO A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THAT TO CREATE A MORE SUSTAINABLE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE NOT DEPENDENT ON THE U.S.

J.Z.: AND IRAN.

Katulis: AND IRAN.

J.Z.: HOW DOES IRAN FIT INTO THAT EQUATION?

Katulis: WELL, SIMILARLY IRAN HAS INTEREST IN NOT SEEING THE CRISIS IN IRAQ ERUPT EVEN FURTHER. AND I THINK THEY’RE ADVANCING THEIR INTERESTS IN WAYS THAT AREN’T HELPFUL RIGHT NOW. BUT IF YOU ACTUALLY PUT EVERYTHING ON THE TABLE, HAVE A REGIONAL CONTACT GROUP THAT’S INCLUSIVE, AND HAVE DIPLOMACY WITH IRAN, I THINK THIS IS A BETTER WAY THAN SENDING MORE U.S. TROOPS INTO THE CIVIL WARS OF IRAQ.

J.Z.: LET’S GO TO MASSACHUSETTS FOR OUR FIRST CALL. CALLER? HELLO?

Caller: HELLO?
J.Z.: YES. HI. YOUR QUESTION.

Caller: YEAH. I HAVE A QUESTION FOR BRIAN. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT GIVING THE POWER BACK TO THE LOCAL WARLORDS IN DIFFERENT PROVINCES OF IRAQ. ISN’T IT LIKE TAKING IRAQ BACK TO 50 YEARS BACK, LIKE IN
AFGHANISTAN, WHAT HAPPENED IN AFGHANISTAN, ALL THE WARLORDS IN
DIFFERENT AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, AND THEN THEY’RE FIGHTING AMONG
THEMSELVES? SO, IT’S CREATING, I THINK, MORE PROBLEMS THAN SOLVING IT OUT. THE SECOND THING, WHAT’S THE ROLE OF REGIONAL STATES LIKE TURKEY AND IRAN AND SYRIA IN THE CURRENT CONFLICT THERE?

J.Z.: THANK YOU.

Katulis: GREAT. WELL, IN THE FIRST ONE, I THINK YOU’VE GOT TO RECOGNIZE THAT THOSE REALITIES ARE ON THE GROUND RIGHT NOW.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DECEMBER 2005 ELECTIONS, 9 IN 10 IRAQI
KURDS VOTED FOR KURDISH LEADERS, 9 IN 10 SUNNIS VOTED FOR SUNNI
RELIGIOUS LEADERS, RELIGIOUS PARTIES. 9 IN 10 SHIITES VOTED FOR SHIITE RELIGIOUS PARTIES. SO, THIS DECENTRALIZATION, THE UNIFIED NATIONAL TICKETS GOT LESS THAN 8% OR 9% INSIDE OF IRAQ, AND
I THINK THAT’S A FUNDAMENTAL REALITY WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE. IF WE
WANT TO SUPPORT DEMOCRACY, THIS IS WHAT A LOT OF IRAQIS VOTED
FOR, AND THEY VOTED FOR A DECENTRALIZED SORT OF SYSTEM.

J.Z.: I CAN ARGUE THAT THE GAMBLE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION TOOK
CLEARLY FAILED. IT WAS BASED ON KIND OF A APOCALYPTICAL VISION THAT WE’D KNOCK IT ALL DOWN AND THE PIECES WOULD FALL IN PLACE JUST RIGHT. THE CONCERN I HAVE WITH THIS WITHDRAWAL APPROACH IS THE FOLLOWING—IT’S THAT’S IF YOU WITHDRAW WITHOUT A STRUCTURE IN
PLACE THAT YOU’RE PUTTING IN PLACE SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE
WITHDRAWAL, THE DANGER IS THAT THOSE SURROUNDING COUNTRIES WILL
DO ONE OF TWO THINGS. THE OPTIMAL SIDE IS THAT THEY BECOME
INVESTED IN STABILITY AND SECURITY. THE NEGATIVE SIDE IS THAT THE CONFLICT SPILLS OVER, AND TURKEY IS THREATENED BY KURDISH INDEPENDENCE, IRAN BECOMES EMBOLDENED AND MOVES IN, SAUDI ARABIA BECOMES THREATENED BY IRANIAN HEGEMONY AND BEGINS TO SUPPORT INDEPENDENT—AND THERE IS NO REFEREE IN THAT SITUATION, WHICH GRANTED, WE’RE A FLAWED REFEREE AT BEST. WEIGH THOSE TWO OUT, THE
BEST CASE AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS.

Katulis: WELL, FIRST, JIM, I THINK WE NEED TO START LOOKING AT SOLUTIONS OTHER THAN MILITARY SOLUTIONS BECAUSE THE COMMANDERS ARE EVEN SAYING COME MARCH OF NEXT YEAR, WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO DRAW DOWN OUR FORCES AS A PRACTICAL MATTER BECAUSE OF THE STRAINS THIS IS PLACING ON OUR MILITARY. SO WE NEED TO START THINKING MORE CREATIVELY ABOUT WHAT CAN COUNTRIES IN THE REGION DO MORE CONSTRUCTIVELY. AND I THINK THERE ARE WAYS, FOR INSTANCE, IN TURKEY. WE HAVE A LOT OF LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY AS A NATO ALLY, AND
IF WE HAVE INTENSIFIED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS—I THINK SOME OF IT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ELECTIONS IN JULY IN TURKEY, BUT WE’VE HAD A SHUTTLE WITH FORMER GENERAL JOE RALSTON WORKING THESE ISSUES QUIETLY, AND I THINK WE NEED TO INTENSIFY THOSE. WE NEED TO GET COUNTRIES IN THE REGION TO ACT MORE RESPONSIBLY IN THEIR OWN SELF-INTEREST, AND I THINK PART OF THAT MEANS, I DON’T THINK JORDAN, FOR INSTANCE, WILL INVADE WESTERN IRAQ. I DON’T KNOW THEY HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL TO DO THAT AND THE CAPABILITY, BUT
THEY CERTAINLY HAVE THE MEANS AND THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH US
ON SECURITY INITIATIVES TO STABILIZE THE BORDER, TO STOP THE
SPREAD OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS AND WORK THOSE ISSUES MORE
CAPABLY THAN WE DO. SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE WORST CASE SCENARIO EVERYBODY FOCUSES ON, AND I THINK WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT IT, BUT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER HAVE TO RECOGNIZE U.S. TROOPS ARE LEAVING AND LEAVING QUITE SOON BECAUSE THE PENTAGON JUST CAN’T HANDLE THE STRAIN.

J.Z.: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US, BRIAN KATULIS. AND AGAIN,
THE REPORT’S AVAILABLE AT WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG.
WELL, THAT’S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE. I WANT TO THANK MY GUESTS BRUCE RIEDEL AND RAY MCGOVERN AND BRIAN KATULIS. SEE YOU NEXT WEEK ON “VIEWPOINT.” THANKS.

Katulis: GREAT. THANKS.