Countdown
On the Eve of History
By AAI Countdown
Volume 9, No. 17
Posted on Sunday November 2, 2008
On the Eve of History
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 will mark a historical day in the United States: if elected, Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) would be the first African American to serve as President; Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) the first female to serve as Vice President. A lesser known fact for political junkies: tomorrow’s winner will be the first U.S. Senator to be elected President since John F. Kennedy in 1960.
“Show Me” the Winner
Although Florida and Ohio have earned prominent status as key electoral battlegrounds, history buffs will be watching the “Show Me” state of Missouri. Voters of this perennial bellwether have correctly predicted every presidential race since 1904 (with the exception of the 1954 contest.)
Calling All Voters
In an election that might hinge on one campaign’s successful field operation, the impact of cell phones could be an X-factor. Though polling by Zogby International shows that 71% of mobile phone users favor Barack Obama (D-IL) and 25% who favor John McCain (R-AZ), most of these numbers are not associated with targeted voters’ households. Will this impact either campaign’s effort to Get Out Their Vote?
In the Event of a Tie-Breaker
The Electoral College vote count will be tied at 269 if Barack Obama (D-IL) holds all the states that Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry (D-MA) carried in 2004, and wins Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa or wins New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa with a loss in New Hampshire. Regardless of not-too-distant memories of hanging and pregnant chads, history has only produced one Electoral College tie (in the 1800 race with Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.) “If the tally produced no Electoral College majority for either candidate, the House would elect the next president,” according to Congressional Quarterly “Each state’s delegation, regardless of its size, would get one vote; it takes a 26-vote majority to win.” Let’s hope we can sleep by 1:00am EST.
A Path To 60?
Senate Democrats are hoping to reconvene in January 2009 with a 56 to 58 seat majority, even if Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) and running mate Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) moved on to the White House and Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) chose to caucus with the Republicans. Just a few shy of the filibuster-proof 60 seat majority, is there any way the Democrats could tack on a few more after the election? If Senators Olympia Snowe (R-ME) or Susan Collins (R-ME) both accept an appointment with the next Administration, Governor John Baldacci (D-ME) would likely name two Democrats to the U.S. Senate.
Another Race to Watch
While many are focused on the Presidential contest, New Hampshire voters will make another key decision: whether to send Senator John Sununu (R-NH) back for another six-year term or elect former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) to represent the Granite State. It’s a rematch of their 2002 race for the same seat and, like the last round, Sununu and Shaheen have been close throughout. The polls have shown a steady trend favoring Governor Shaheen in recent months, but Senator Sununu racked up an impressive number of New Hampshire newspaper endorsements in the final weeks of the race. We wish both candidates—each with a special connection to the Arab American community—the best of luck!
