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Tuesday October 16, 2012

What To Expect For Tonight’s Debate

Posted by Frank Matt at 12:27 pm

Tonight President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney will face off for a town hall debate at Hofstra University. The debate will be moderated by CNN’s Candy Crowley and will air at 9pm Eastern Time. While the Vice Presidential debate did not change the overall status of the polls, Biden’s performance did manage to halt the Obama campaign’s downward slide. Heading into the debate tonight, Romney has a slight edge in the national polls, but Obama maintains his swing state advantage with a 50 point Electoral College spread. Here are some stories to watch for in tonight’s debate:

• Candy Crowley: CNN’s Candy Crowley will make history tonight as the first woman to moderate a presidential debate. Even without this historical significance, Crowley will be under a lot of pressure. The two moderators so far, Jim Lehrer and Martha Raddatz, have presented a clear contrast in moderating styles and their performances have been scrutinized as intensely as the candidates’ performances.

• The Audience: Unlike the first presidential showdown in Denver two weeks ago, this debate will include a town hall audience of approximately 80 undecided voters, some of whom will get the chance to ask questions to the two candidates. This format presents a completely different dynamic. The candidates are tasked not only with connecting with viewers at home, but with the specific audience member who asked the question. The town hall format presents both a challenge and an opportunity for candidates to seem personable and in-touch with voters’ concerns.

• Memorandum of Understanding: A secret memorandum between the campaigns and the commission on debates has caused a stir in the political press. The memo, obtained by Mark Halperin of Time, shows both campaigns laying out a number of conditions designed to make the debate less spontaneous. Both campaigns have sought to limit the role of moderator Candy Crowley and have insisted that audience members not be allowed to ask follow ups to their questions. The memo also includes rules such as pre-designating where the candidates can walk on the debate floor, and ruling out direct questions from one candidate to another. Despite the best efforts of the campaigns to control the debate environment, town hall format debates are inherently spontaneous.

• Obama’s Challenge: The President has acknowledged his defeat in the first debate and has vowed to come back swinging against Romney in tonight’s debate. This is easier said than done. If questions from the audience focus the discussion on Obama’s record, he could once again get caught up defending his policies instead of attacking his opponent. Romney, like he did so effectively in the first debate, needs to keep Obama on the defensive about his record. If Obama manages to go on the attack, he also runs the risk of going too far in the other direction. Coming off as too aggressive could seem desperate and actually reinforce the negative perceptions about his ability to debate Romney.

• Moderate Mitt: In the first debate and in his subsequent television appearances, Romney has been accused of trying to walk back some of the more conservative positions he advocated in the Republican primary. Romney in this debate is likely to continue trying to play to the center, while Obama will try to paint this move as a flip-flop.

• The Female Vote: A recent Gallup Poll showing a significant drop in Obama’s double digit lead among female voters spells serious trouble for Obama. An assortment of women’s issues such as contraception, reproductive rights, and equal pay are perceived as strengths for the President. These issues, however, have been largely absent from the first two debates. Whether or not these issues are brought up in this final debate on domestic policy could cost Obama the substantial lead among female voters in this election.

• Wild Card Topics: The economy is still the number one issue in this campaign and will likely be a large part of tonight’s debate. The town hall format, however, wrests control of the debate content from the moderators, making it far more likely that topics will emerge tonight that have been ignored in previous debates. Questions about the Supreme Court, affirmative action, racial profiling, gun control, and immigration reform all have yet to be asked. Fortunately, crowd-sourced questions make it more likely that issues like these will be discussed by the candidates. 

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