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Wednesday October 03, 2012

What To Expect For Tonight’s Debate

Posted by Frank Matt at 3:51 pm

Tonight Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama will face off for the first of three presidential debates. Tonight’s debate will take place at the University of Denver and will air at 9:00 PM EDT. The debate will be moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS Newshour and will focus on domestic policy. Polling shows President Obama in the lead, with a 3 percentage point edge in an average of national polls, as well as leads of varying sizes in almost every swing state. AAI will be live-tweeting the event, using the hashtag #Yallavote.

Here are some of the key stories to watch for in tonight’s debate:

• Romney’s Uphill Battle: No matter how the candidates spin debate expectations, the simple fact that Romney is down in the polls puts significant pressure on him to deliver a great performance. Romney needs to fight the perception that he is losing. If he delivers a sub-par performance, he not only risks a further drop in the polls, but he also risks conservatives and donors abandoning him in favor of investing in Senate campaigns they deem more winnable.  

• Obama’s Challenge, The Economic Outlook: The figures on the economy are bad news for Obama tonight, just as they have been all election. Conventional wisdom suggests that 8 percent national unemployment, and higher unemployment in many swing states, would be an insurmountable obstacle any President seeking reelection. One of the most bizarre stories from this campaign, however, is how perceptions about the economy are split down partisan lines. Republicans say they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy and Democrats say they hear good news. This means it does not necessarily matter which way the trends and statistics on the economy are actually heading in tonight’s debate. Either candidate could get the upper hand on economic issues through effective rhetoric.

• The Deficit: The deficit is another area in which Obama is vulnerable. The size of the deficit and the failure of debt negotiations are undoubtedly areas in which Romney will attack the President. While Obama can point to the policies of the previous administration and an obstructionist Congress, these defenses can be easily painted by Romney as excuses. Romney, through the use of terms like “leadership,” and “taking responsibility,” can hit the President hard on the deficit.

• Immigration: Romney was forced into extreme positions on the issue of immigration in order to secure the nomination. Now he is haunted by phrases like “self-deportation” in the general election as he attempts to garner Latino/Latina support. In a last minute policy change before the debate, Romney broke his silence on Obama’s executive order to stop deportations of DREAMers, saying that he would not reverse the order. This will serve as a potentially effective defense against Obama’s accusations that Romney is inhumane on immigration. Romney also can point to Obama’s failed promise to accomplish comprehensive immigration reform in his first term.

• Taxes and Specifics: Romney has recently been accused of lacking specificity about how he would pay for his proposed tax cuts. Even if he were to present these specifics, the debate would not be the best forum to do so. As conservative columnist George Will put it, “October is a time for summations to the jury, not new submissions of evidence.” Thus, one of the biggest challenges for Romney in this debate will be how to push his 20% across the board tax cuts, without getting pinned down by either Obama or Jim Lehrer on which deductions in the tax code he would do away with.

• The Same Tired Attacks: On issues of Medicare, welfare reform, and the auto industry bailout, we are unlikely to hear any lines of attack that we have not already heard. Romney will continue to accuse Obama of gutting welfare reform and robbing Medicare, just as Obama will continue to tout his saving of the auto industry and attack Romney for his opposition to the bailout. Since we’ve seen little change in rhetoric or movement in opinion on these issues throughout the campaign, the candidate who lands the better punch-line or gets the last word will get the upper hand on these issues.

• Straying from the Topic: The worst news for the Obama camp this month is on the foreign policy front. The Obama administration has spent the week tiptoeing around referring to the Libya embassy attack as an act of terrorism despite evidence that they knew right away. While this debate’s stated topic is domestic policy, Romney is likely to take a shot at Obama over the attack on our embassy in Libya if he gets the chance. If Romney brings up Libya, however, he does open himself up to attack on his initial response to the crisis, which was widely regarded as a misstep.

• The 47 Percent: Obama will undoubtedly make references, either veiled or direct, to Romney’s remarks from a secretly taped fundraiser. It is also possible that Jim Lehrer will give Romney a chance to address them directly through a question. Look for Romney to attempt to flip the script on his “47 percent” comments tonight by attempting to portray Obama as the one who is out of touch by using figures on the economy and the slow recovery.

• Sound Bites for the Sound Bite Age: Debates these days often come down to moments. A good zinger that is shown repeatedly can create the perception of a victory, while a single awkward moment can do the opposite. Both candidates know this and will be trying to land the sound bite attack that goes viral. 

Tagged as Posted by Frank Matt, Yalla Vote, Democrat, Election Central, Republican