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Thursday October 11, 2012

Vice-Presidential Debate Preview

Posted by Frank Matt at 2:22 pm

Tonight Vice-Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Paul Ryan will meet for a debate at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky. The debate will air at 9:00pm eastern time and will be moderated by ABC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Martha Raddatz. The debate comes as President Obama has seen a 5 point slide in his poll numbers over 7 days following a loss to Mitt Romney in the first debate, leaving Romney with a 1.5 point advantage in the latest RCP poll average. Here are some stories to watch for in tonight’s debate:

• How Much Effect Will it Have?: Conventional wisdom tells us that Vice Presidential debates rarely have any significant impact on the race. Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist, commented that the most they can do is increase momentum for a ticket considered to have won the first debate of the presidential nominees, or serve as ‘a circuit breaker’ for the ticket that lost. The first debate, however, had a greater than expected effect on the race, so the VP debate could surprise as well.

• Enthusiasm: Democratic voters received a blow to their enthusiasm after the Denver debate, while Republicans left feeling better about their candidate. Joe Biden is tasked tonight with reviving Dems’ enthusiasm. This is a tall order, as some of the toughest critics of Obama’s debate performance were his most loyal supporters.

• All eyes on the Moderator: Jim Lehrer’s performance as moderator in Denver was panned as being too passive, which puts significant pressure on Martha Raddatz to take a more active role in shaping the discussion rather than getting steamrolled by the candidates. It is difficult to find the happy medium, however, between being an active moderator and letting the evening be about the candidates. Raddatz is known as an aggressive reporter, so it’s possible that she might go too far in trying to not moderate like Lehrer.

• The Ryan Budget: Paul Ryan’s polarizing budget will likely be discussed at length in tonight’s debate. It is especially likely to come up during a back-and-forth on Medicare. The Romney/Ryan camp frequently accuses Obama of “robbing” Medicare of $716 billion. If this line of attack comes up again, Biden will likely point to the fact that the Ryan budget included these same savings.

• Battle of Gaffes: Biden and Ryan are likely to quote each other a lot in the debate. In recent days Ryan has jumped on Biden’s gaffe that the middle class has been “buried for the past 4 years.” Biden, on the other hand, is likely to go after Ryan telling Chris Wallace on Fox News that he does not have the time to explain the math of his tax plan.

• Foreign Policy: Foreign policy could be dangerous ground for Ryan in tonight’s debate. Ryan is a foreign policy novice, whereas Biden has years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations committee. Mistakes for Ryan while discussing foreign policy could by costly, as Biden will undoubtedly jump on any chance he can to paint Ryan as inexperienced.

• Numbers: Biden would love to see Ryan get lost in the weeds trying to explain his budget and the Romney/Ryan tax plan in detail. It’s a trap, but possibly too easy a trap. The challenge for Ryan is to keep his explanations crisp and digestible to the heartland, which is exactly what his aides have said he’s been practicing.  

Tagged as Posted by Frank Matt, Yalla Vote, Election Central